748 survivorship bias

Wu Mian knew that Aunt Feng was just chatting, and he didn't take it seriously, so he said with a smile, "Aunt Feng, after having an excavator, if the conditions allow, who will dig by hand." ”

"Xiao Wu, you don't need money to hire an excavator, you see what you said. Aunt Feng chatted with Wu Mian very familiarly, "If you hadn't said that the free clinic for eugenics, I guess the daughter of the old Sun family would have been delayed." ”

"Hehe, it's okay. ”

"Xiao Wu, you said that if you don't take a look at this thing, you won't be able to judge?" Aunt Feng looked at the optic mirror in Wu Mian's hand and asked again.

"Not really. Wu Mian smiled, "Let's put it this way, when I was studying for a doctorate, I took my younger brothers and sisters with me, and I called them miserable every day." ”

"What are you teaching them to do? ”

"Nothing. Wu Mian said, "There is a junior who can't even see the film of cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage. Tell me, I don't scold them, what will I do when I go to the hospital in the future. Of these two diseases, one needs to stop bleeding and the other needs to invigorate blood, and it is not okay to make a mistake at all. ”

"That's right. Aunt Feng didn't understand what Wu Mian meant, but when she heard that junior, she was unreliable, and she couldn't tell the difference from such a simple illness.

"This is a CT, before you guess how the doctor will see a doctor?" Wu Mian asked.

"yes, wasn't it the same at that time? ”

"My neurosurgery teacher, the top expert in China, is well-known in the world. It is well-known not only in China, but also in the world. ”

Aunt Feng looked at Wu Mian in a daze, not knowing what he was going to say.

"The world's first CT machine was only manufactured in 1972, and under the active promotion of Li Guozhen, a master of imaging, the first CT machine in China was introduced in 1979. Wu Mian said, "Just take a film now, before there is CT, the main ...... By guessing. ”

"Guess ......" Aunt Feng was speechless.

Is this what a doctor should say? Compared with Wu Miangang's guess, those vague words are the most tender love words in the world.

"Before CT, when facing a patient with acute cerebrovascular disease, the diagnosis of cerebral hemorrhage or cerebral infarction can only be guessed based on medical history. Otherwise, stick a needle into your brain, and draw it to see if you can draw the blood. ”

"......" Aunt Feng was startled.

"The scientific name for this procedure is ventricular puncture? The risk is extremely high, and patients who can't guess will take the risk of using puncture. Wu Mian said with a smile, "What about punctures? It is necessary to rely on experience to insert it into the patient's head, and if you are lucky enough to insert it into the bleeding lesion, it can draw out the blood accumulated in the lesion." ”

"......" Aunt Feng was dumbfounded, "Xiao Wu, are you teasing me." ”

"No, I'm telling the truth. "Wu Mian Dao?" Not to mention scientific progress. ”

"I always feel weird. "Aunt Feng said?" Why do I remember that the doctors in the past were so powerful? ”

"Survivorship bias, unfortunate patients are all dead. Wu Mian said, "Now that there is a stroke center, our medical university has it, a green channel of water."

It only takes an average of 42 minutes from the time the patient enters the hospital gate, after the doctor receives the patient, examines the medical history, draws blood for testing, inhales oxygen and infusion, takes a skull CT scan, and then uses thrombolytic therapy. Of course, I'm talking about the imperial capital. Provincial towns may be a little slower, but not by much. ”

"Is it so fast? I remember that going to the hospital was always slow, and I had to wait in line for a day. ”

"Yes? In the era of no CT? Three or five days may not be fruitful. Some patients died, and doctors didn't know how. Tell me, how could the doctors of the past be more powerful? Wu Mian said, "This is not the top master written in it, the older you get, the more valuable it is." ”

"Your teacher is not better than you. Aunt Feng said.

"Hey. Wu Mian smiled, "My teacher said it himself, I was already young when I was 25 years old. ”

"......" Aunt Feng was speechless.

"Let's also talk about CT, for every 1 minute of delay in a patient with cerebral infarction, the patient will lose an additional 1.9 million brain neurons. You say that there is no diagnosis every day, how many neurons are dead enough. You say, that's it. ”

"It seems to be, but I always feel weird. ”

"I'll tell you the truth. Wu Mian said, "My teacher's teacher's teacher is an old expert at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China." At that time, there was no CT, only plain films, and it was good to be able to take an X-ray. ”

"I had a cold, my grandfather...... Aunt Feng, be serious. Wu Mian saw that Aunt Feng was overjoyed, so he said.

"I've never heard the doctor say the word grandpa. "Aunt Feng couldn't be beaten.

"Most doctors are college students who come up and down the assembly line, at least to get a Ph.D., and they have to be ...... Hi, don't say this. My grandfather's x-ray was fine, and when I listened to it with a stethoscope, I found that there were both wheezing and crackles.

At that time, considering that he was an elderly smoker and had long-term shortness of breath and wheezing symptoms, and the patient was sick in autumn and winter, he was first diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) with acute infection, that is, COPD. ”

"Well, I know about it. ”

"First anti-inflammatory treatment, but after 2 weeks of antibiotics, his old man just didn't relieve, and there was a tendency to get worse. At that time, "pneumonia" was ruled out and it was considered that it might be "tuberculosis" with less obvious clinical signs. ”

"You guys really guess. ”

"Of course, let me tell you, before I became a doctor, I thought that all diseases could be cured. But after graduating from university, I felt that it would be good to be able to cure half of the diseases, and after graduating from graduate school, I found that only 20% of the diseases could be cured, and after graduating from the doctorate, I felt that less than 10% of the diseases could be cured. ”

"And now?"

"Alas, there are really not many diseases that can be cured. Even if I was given all the most advanced equipment, many diseases still had to be guessed. Wu Mian shook his head slightly and said.

"Aunt Feng, don't listen to my brother. Chu Zhixi smiled, "What he said is too extreme, ordinary minor diseases can basically be treated." ”

Hearing Chu Zhixi say this, Aunt Feng's face looked a little better, "What happened later?"

"At that time, diagnostic treatment was carried out at the same time as the tuberculosis test.

However, during my admission to the hospital, I always noticed that the old man had lost several pounds, his cough was more severe, and recently he had a new hemoptysis, and he used a stethoscope to find that the wheezing was more pronounced somewhere in the chest wall. At last...... Diagnosed with lung cancer. ”

"......" Aunt Feng was speechless.

"If you go up now, a 64-slice CT will find that the lungs have high-density shadows and burrs at the edges, which is suspected of lung cancer. No puncture, direct surgery or interventional radiofrequency ablation, and he was discharged from the hospital after 3 days. Wu Mian said, "You say, if you change your words, how do you choose." ”

Wu Mian looked at Aunt Feng and gave her the importance of popular science equipment very seriously.