Chapter 120: Collapse
Chapter 120
The rollercoaster index turmoil lasted for more than half a month, and on September 23, when the S&P 500 index fell below 310 points, Noah Scott finally received Simon's order to close his position again. From September 23 to September 25, in three days, the 6,000 short contracts held by Westeros were cleared at an average of about 307 points, and Simon made another profit of $76.26 million.
In addition, a month after "Lola Run" was released, because the two sides still maintained a close working relationship, Orion Pictures did not delay, and happily paid Westeros a total of $32.51 million in box office shares according to the contract.
So, excluding the loan, which is no longer ready to be used at all, Simon has all the funds he has before the recent layout, which has reached $387.33 million.
When Noah Scott and others were still puzzled by Simon's conservative intentions in September, the clearance ended, and after a short silence for a few days, on September 30, Simon suddenly transferred all the funds in Westeros' Lehman Brothers account, and Noah Scott finally realized that whether Simon found out about Lehman Brothers' intentions to follow the trend, the other party became wary of them.
Wall Street is not big after all, not to mention, the stock index futures market is still using the trading mode of on-site manual outcry at this time, and the trading market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on stock index futures is actually very obvious.
So, with a little observation, Noah Scott basically concluded that Simon had spread his money among several other brokers and started to open short positions in a big way again.
However, Simon's operation in September, which can be called a 'miss', has made Lehman Brothers doubt whether to follow up. Moreover, Quantum Fund, another major client of Lehman Brothers, began to establish a large number of long contracts in early October that were completely opposite to Westeros, almost at the same time as Simon, which made Noah Scott and others even more hesitant.
Although not as thunderous as it was later, George Soros's Quantum Fund has been around for more than a decade, with an average annual return of more than 30%, which still makes him famous on Wall Street.
On one side is the hedge fund boss with outstanding performance, and on the other side is the sudden rise of Hollywood newcomers.
The two men did the exact opposite.
After a few hesitations, James Robinson, who made the decision behind the scenes, still couldn't make up his mind, and just told Noah Scott to watch from the sidelines.
$500 million in cash is not to be underestimated for any company in this era, and if Noah Scott's money falls into the red, the grey market operation will be easier to expose. When the time comes, James Robinson's position as CEO of Amex will not be any longer.
Lehman Brothers is on the sidelines, but time does not stop at all.
In the last fight, Simon also completely let go of his hands and feet.
Since October 1, several futures brokers that Simon has secretly re-identified have begun to build positions aggressively at a rate of 2,000 contracts per day. At the same time, North American equities began to accelerate their downward trend into October, with the S&P 500 sliding to a low of nearly 280 points again in just two weeks.
......
This side of Los Angeles.
At the same time as "Vulgar" was completed, "When Harry Met Sally" also officially started filming in New York on September 14.
Simon finished filming "Vulgar" and neither immediately went into the post-production of the film, nor did he rush to New York, because the final cut of "The Grim Reaper" was also completed in late September, and the film was only a month away from its October 23 release schedule.
With Amy Pascal oversight, Simon wasn't worried that Fox would not do his best in the promotion of "The Grim Reaper", but in order to gain some experience for Daenerys Pictures to do film distribution himself, he still got involved in these efforts.
With a lot of work to do, time inevitably flies.
These days, Paramount Pictures' drama thriller starring Michael Douglas, "Fatal Temptation," is an unexpected box office hit.
Although it was dropped at the end of September, which is also a graveyard-level unpopular schedule, in just four weeks, the box office of the film has approached $50 million, and it has undoubtedly become another film in 1987 after "Lola Run", "Butterfly Effect" and "Beverly Police 2" The North American box office is expected to exceed 100 million.
The box office success of "Fatal Temptation" reminded Simon of Michael Douglas's other, more famous film, "Instinct".
After several successful internal test screenings of "The Grim Reaper", Fox began to urge Simon to complete the last script in the original contract as soon as possible. Influenced by "Fatal Temptation", Simon has written the outline of the script for "Instinct" in recent days.
In the blink of an eye, it was Monday, October 19th.
Inside the mansion in Palisad.
Just after four o'clock in the morning, Simon had already woken up, and he had no sleepiness at all.
After getting up, he went directly to the study next to the master bedroom, leaning in the wide leather chair, Simon did not rush to pick up the phone, but once again flipped through the trading statements of several futures brokers in the recent period and the stock market reports of these days.
In 12 trading days, from October 1 to October 16, Westeros opened a total of 26,700 short contracts in the S&P 500 between 300 and 280, with a staggering 100% open interest in each account.
With all the $387.33 million in funds pressed, even if he is absolutely sure in his heart, Simon will inevitably be apprehensive when the matter comes.
Fortunately.
Some of the things in my memory still happen on time.
Just yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Beck claimed on a television program that the United States would continue to consider letting the dollar fall if the Federal Republic of Germany does not lower interest rates. Obviously, if the price of a certain goods is certain to drop, the holder will definitely sell it subconsciously. If the dollar continues to depreciate, it will naturally encourage capital to flee.
On Friday, the North American stock market was already showing signs of collapse, and on October 16, the Dow Jones index had fallen from a peak of 2,700 points in August to 2,200 points, and the US trade deficit and financial deficit that worsened again in the third quarter already made the North American stock market look precarious.
Baker's utterly anachronistic remarks on the TV show were like the last straw on a camel.
Simon believes that many things never happen for nothing. So yesterday's statement on Baker's TV show and the subsequent media hype naturally reminded Simon of conspiracy theories.
Of course, these things have nothing to do with him.
Even if the U.S. economy returned to the Great Depression era, he would not feel much.
The New York Stock Exchange opens at 9:30 a.m. and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange opens at 8:30 a.m. Central Time, which is actually synchronized with the New York Stock Exchange.
As for Los Angeles, Simon just has to wait until 6:30.
However, just after 6 o'clock, the three telephones that Simon had specially installed in his study these days rang one after another.
Although the prescribed trading hours are half o'clock, in practice, floor trading on the New York and Chicago trading floors often begins before the market opens.
Before the funds were withdrawn from Lehman Brothers, Simon had secretly opened stock index futures accounts with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and First Boston, three investment banks with futures brokerage businesses.
Simon still didn't know anything about Lehman Brothers' previous covert follow-up, but he also believed that the other party must have noticed his actions during this time. However, things have come to this point, and Simon can't care too much.
If Lehman Brothers follows suit, it will at most add some resistance to Westeros' liquidation in the next few days. However, Simon did not believe that Lehman Brothers would easily expose his previous trading records to other investment banks, prompting several companies such as Goldman Sachs to follow him and open positions. The competition on Wall Street is fierce. Once Lehman Brothers does this, competitors like Goldman Sachs will never mind dragging anglers into the water while eating the 'bait' dropped by Lehman Brothers.
Traders from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and First Boston told Simon on the phone that there were still more than 20 minutes before the opening of the market, and there were already a large number of long buying orders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and the lowest quotation had even reached 253 points, compared with 281 points at the close of last Friday, a plunge of 28 points, a drop of nearly 10%.
Simon's initial trade took a month and a half for the S&P 500 to rise from 270 to 290.
Now, just one weekend later, and just before the market opened, the S&P 500 was down 28 points, and even from thousands of miles away, Simon could have imagined what it would be like to be in the halls of the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Janet walked in at some point, still wearing suspender pajamas and barefoot. However, this time the woman was not the same lazy kitten as before, her eyes were shining, and she no longer leaned into Simon's arms, quietly pulled a chair and sat across the desk, listening to Simon keep talking on the phone with Chicago.
Despite the fact that the quote has fallen by 28 points, more than any previous round, Simon still very decisively rejected the trader's proposal to close the position.
After answering three calls in a row, Simon put down the microphone, Janet's eyes flashed, and her expression was obviously a little uncertain and asked, "How much?"
"It's already down to 253 points. ”
Simon said, picked up the remote control, turned on the TV, which had also been installed in the study just a few days ago, and the screen directly showed the chaotic scene of the New York Stock Exchange as if it were boiling, and the host's almost trilled commentary.
Through the host's words, starting at 9 o'clock in the morning Eastern time, the New York Stock Exchange has also piled up a large number of stock sellings in just ten minutes.
After listening quietly to the report on the TV screen for a while, Janet turned her head to look at Simon, her expression obviously with a little excitement that she was afraid that the world would not be chaotic, and whispered in a sly voice: "Alas, dear, how much do you think it will fall?"
Simon looked at Janet's appearance and wanted to pinch the woman's nose, but he just shook his head and said, "It's such a mess, how can I know." ”
Janet's eyes flickered a few times, and she pursed her lips, but she didn't ask any more questions.
Although it is understood that Janet must be faintly aware of something, no matter what, Simon will never admit it positively. It's not that he doesn't trust Janet enough, it's that his experience is so bizarre that Simon simply can't cope with the consequences of something coming to light.
On the TV screen, in the chaotic picture of continuous switching between major exchanges, the last ten minutes passed quickly.
At 6:30 a.m. Los Angeles time, the New York Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange opened at the same time.
In New York, the Dow Jones fell 67 points at the start of trading and then began to take a sharp turn.
The situation at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is even more alarming.
The S&P 500 opened with a gap straight after the open, plummeting from 281 points at last week's close to 198 points, a terrifying 29% decline.
The average number of pips for short positions held by Westeros is around 290 pips.
At the S&P 500's lowest value of 198 points, Simon's short position has generated $45,000 in each contract, a margin of more than 300% relative to an average margin of $14,500.
Of course, Simon did not expect to be able to close his position at the lowest value of 198 points.
Since the stock index futures market at this time does not adopt a daily debt-free settlement system, as long as enough margin can be added before tomorrow's trading, most of the wrong long contracts will not be forced to close their positions, therefore, only those who have no reserve chips will choose to cut their flesh and leave the market, and the number of short contracts closed today must be far lower than usual.
Therefore, Simon simply locked the closing range between 200 and 210 points.
Even at 210 points, a single profit of $40,000 can still be made on a short contract held by Westeros, which is enough.
October 19, 1987 was undoubtedly a long day for many people.
Simon kept making and receiving calls, but it felt like the day was over quickly.
By the time the Chicago Mercantile Exchange officially closed, it was just after noon in Los Angeles.
According to statistics, more than 26,000 short contracts in Westeros' account were eventually closed in a single trading day, and 18,000 contracts remained in the account waiting to be processed.
In the final phone exchange, Morgan Stanley's trader clearly had regret in his tone, and his words did not mislead in hinting that Simon was too greedy. If Simon had been able to set the closing limit higher, perhaps Westeros would have been able to close more than half of its positions today.
Now, if the federal government steps in to bail out the market, perhaps just tomorrow, the S&P 500 could rebound again, and Simon will miss out on such an opportunity to make more profits.
However, Simon didn't pay much attention to the trader's advice.
If memory is not wrong, he has at least two days left.