Chapter 121: I Regret It
"By the end of yesterday's close, the Dow Jones index fell 508 points, and the federal stock market as a whole lost $503 billion. ”
"Is 1987 equal to 1929?"
"As the panic continues to spread, SEC officials urgently clarified that there are no plans to temporarily close the stock exchange. ”
"James Baker should resign for his inappropriate remarks. ”
"CME Group's S&P 500 futures long loss of $3.52 billion is huge, and margin call pressure is huge. ”
"The Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting and asked major banks to provide sufficient funding and credit to exchanges to avoid trading defaults and aggravating the market crisis. ”
"Chicago Mercantile Exchange Chairman Leo Melamed invented a statement that CME Group Settlement Bank has received a cumulative margin call of $3.7 billion, and the exchange will open normally at 8:30 Central Time. ”
“......”
“......”
The plummeting curve, which was almost exactly the same as in 1929, kept countless people awake at night.
The 1929 stock market crash caused a series of serious chain reactions, such as bank failures, factory closures, and farm desertions, which at one point caused nearly one-third of the entire population of the United States to lose any income. At its worst, food shortages even led to widespread malnutrition across the country.
From 1929 to 1933, in just four years, the number of deaths in the United States reached 7 million, equivalent to 7% of the total population of 100 million in the United States at that time, and the mortality rate was far higher than the average in a normal year.
Now in 1987, the people at the top of the American pyramid basically still have deep memories of the Great Depression era. So, in just one day, the federal government launched a series of bailout plans at any cost.
Early in the morning of October 20, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who had just been in office for just over a month, decisively 'opened the floodgates', directly announced that he would reduce the federal benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, and provided $12 billion in cash reserves to major North American banks through bond purchases.
Subsequently, from the White House to the local banks in various states in the United States, they began to take substantial rescue measures.
Affected by this series of positive news, the Dow Jones began to rebound after the market opened on Tuesday, recovering from 1738 points at yesterday's close to a high of 2035 points in half an hour.
It's just that the stock market bubble that has accumulated for five years is not at all a shot or two that can be immediate.
After a brief rally, the Dow Jones took another sharp turn.
On the other hand, the S&P 500, which is closely linked to the Dow Jones, opened almost identically.
The S&P 500 closed at 201 points on Monday and opened on Tuesday, also soaring to 245 points in half an hour, before plunging again.
......
Los Angeles.
In Palisad's mansion, Simon closed 8,300 short positions in the S&P 500 yesterday from a low of 200 to 210, making a one-day profit of more than $350 million. At the same time, 3,500 long contracts were opened in the Westeros account between 200 and 210 at the same time.
At the start of trading on Tuesday, Simon patiently waited for the S&P 500 to briefly surge higher, and then decisively adjusted the closing range, locking in the index cap of 220 points to start selling, while continuing to buy long contracts in the same range.
In addition, Simon also withdrew $200 million from yesterday's profit and moved to the New York Stock Exchange, where he began to buy various stocks in the plan.
......
Chicago.
Fast forward to Thursday.
At seven o'clock in the morning Central Time, Noah Scott, who had only averaged less than five hours of rest in recent days, hurried to the middle of Lehman Brothers' Chicago branch with two bloodshot eyes.
As a vice president at Lehman Brothers, Noah Scott manages a trading team of six analysts and has his own separate office.
Throwing the briefcase and today's newspaper aside, Noah Scott sat down behind his desk and turned on the computer casually, but he couldn't help but be a little stunned: How much did that guy make?
After James Robinson made a wait-and-see decision some time ago, Noah Scott secretly borrowed $1 million from his father and secretly bought 55 short S&P 500 contracts, which was also Simon's previous position of about 80%.
Noah Scott really wanted to bet on whether the man that the girl who pursued all her classmates, including herself, in vain was really amazing.
And then.
On Monday, Noah Scott had a small experience of getting rich overnight.
55 contracts, all closed at the 200-point bottom of the S&P 500, and Noah Scott easily made $2 million.
It's just that Noah Scott is not happy at all, and his mind keeps thinking about the money that Simon withdrew from Lehman Brothers' account, more than $350 million, if it is still 80% short position, it will be close to 20,000 short contracts.
20,000 contracts, all of which are unwinding at the lowest point of the S&P 500, are unlikely, but even at Wednesday's closing of 259 points, Simon Westeros' short position could generate a large profit.
What's more, as long as he is not so greedy, Simon Westeros will definitely be able to close all positions for two consecutive days on Monday and Tuesday, and even, if he establishes a long position on the backhand, the opponent's income can increase immediately.
Noah Scott is a man of great self-control, and after closing those 55 contracts on Monday and earning $2 million, he decided to give up.
Although the federal government has taken a series of strong rescue measures, no one is sure that the US stock market will continue to fall sharply as it did in 1929. But at this time, looking back at the S&P 500 curve from Monday to Wednesday, and then contacting the young man's past operations, Noah Scott is almost 100% sure that the other party will definitely decisively establish a long position and make another profit on the backhand.
The S&P 500 closed at 201 points with a gap lower on Monday.
After a brief surge higher on Tuesday, the S&P 500 still closed at a low of 212 points.
The market stabilized with a gap opening higher on Wednesday at 237 and closing at 259.
So, if you were that young man, you should probably have completed the liquidation of all short contracts on Monday and Tuesday, and if you build a long position on the backhand during this period, you will definitely gain a lot of tension again on Wednesday.
$350 million principal.
80% of the open interest.
Right now.
Noah Scott is wondering more and more, how much has Simon Westeros really made in recent days?
$1 billion?
Even if he can't earn so much, counting the previous principal, Simon Westeros, who is only 19 years old this year, should be a billion-dollar billionaire by now.
Wrong.
Perhaps, Janet Johnston should also have a share of this.
But.
$1 billion!
In any case, Noah Scott understands that perhaps he will not be able to achieve the wealth of those two people in his lifetime.
It's just, $1 billion, what is that guy going to spend it for?
Maybe.
Half a year ago, Simon Westeros and Janet Johnston were rumored to be about to go to court because of the distribution of proceeds from "Lola Run". Now, with such a huge benefit, even if the two of them loved each other before, in the face of such a huge fortune, there may be a dispute next, right?
Thinking of this with some anticipation, Noah Scott's office door was suddenly pushed open, and one of his analysts hurriedly walked over and said, "Noah, no, now the news is everywhere on the exchange that we will sell thousands of contracts after the market opens?"
Noah Scott was still a little stunned, and subconsciously asked, "What?"
The analyst said: "The batch of contracts of the quantum fund, someone leaked the news in advance that we would sell that batch of contracts. ”
In early October, Soros's Quantum Fund began building aggressively at the same time as Simon's Westeros. However, Quantum Fund has bought more than 30,000 long contracts in a row for most of the month.
After the start of the crash, the Quantum Fund's contracts were partially liquidated in recent days, and after the margin call, they were partially liquidated again after the situation stabilized yesterday. But at this time, there are a total of 9,000 contracts left in the Quantum Fund's account.
Even though the federal government's bailout measures began to bear fruit yesterday, everyone understands that the S&P 500 is unlikely to return to the 300-point high in the short term, and the quantum fund has no other option than to cut its flesh and leave the market.
Naturally, Lehman Brothers can't have only one trading team, Noah Scott.
A big client like the Quantum Fund is actually Noah Scott's immediate boss, and a senior vice president of Lehman Brothers is personally in charge.
Hearing his subordinate's explanation, Noah Scott relaxed and said, "Charlie, it's none of our business, is it? Will messed up, that's his business." Saying this, Noah Scott glanced at his watch, clapped his hands and said, "Okay, let everyone in, it's time to work, let's have a meeting first." ”
8:30 a.m.
When the Chicago Mercantile Exchange officially opened, Noah Scott discovered what a bad impact Lehman Brothers had caused by the early leak of the news that Lehman Brothers was about to sell thousands of contracts.
As a result of the news that Lehman Brothers was about to sell a large number of contracts, all other brokers in CME Group began to wait and see after the market opened, and did not accept sell orders from Lehman Brothers at all. As a result, under the accumulation of market selling pressure, the S&P 500 index plummeted again, plummeting from 256 points at yesterday's close to 197 points in just over ten minutes.
Los Angeles.
In Palisad's mansion, it was still early in the morning, and Janet, who was already a little numb, did not get up early today.
On Monday and Tuesday, Westeros far surpassed the 26,700 short contracts Noah Scott imagined, and today there are fewer than 5,000 left. At the same time, Simon again opened a total of 7,000 long positions in the range of 200 to 220 on Monday and Tuesday, and closed 2,000 long contracts at a high of 250 on Wednesday.
Hearing the expected news of another collapse in the S&P 500 on the phone, Simon decisively issued an order to liquidate his short positions.
If the memory is correct, Simon has less than three hours left. In the afternoon Central Time, after the morning's selling pressure has been priced in, the S&P 500 will recover again.
In the past few days, Goldman Sachs and several other traders have become familiar with Simon's operating intentions, so naturally they don't need to say more.
Simon then turned his attention to New York.
In the previous two days, Simon withdrew a total of $400 million, all of which were smashed on the New York stock market. His buying strategy is also very concise and straightforward, technology stocks.
Before the last layout, Simon had already counted a list of technology stocks that he planned to buy, Apple, Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, SUN and other companies naturally had a lot, and naturally, Simon did not forget to add some 'sand' into it.
As far back as I can remember, after a brief decline, the North American stock market continued to rise steadily until 2000. Therefore, the collapse at the end of October 1987 can be said to be Simon's last chance to buy the bottom.
Due to the very detailed planning in advance, in two days, all the $400 million invested by Simon was turned into stocks. After yesterday's closing, Simon again withdrew $200 million from his futures account for today's buying operation. Simon will continue to invest in the purchase of the following funds. Even if it doesn't survive the crash more than a decade later, North American equities will recover quickly, and they will still generate very profitable results in the coming months.
A day of concussion was soon over.
The next day was October 23, Friday, the day of the release of "The Grim Reaper".
The S&P 500 closed at 237 points on Thursday, and after the opening on Friday, there was no more bad news in the market, and the S&P 500 index rebounded above 250 points. The liquidation of short positions was completed on Thursday, and Simon also cleared all the long contracts that had been hastily bought in the previous days on this day.
Thereupon.
Finally, it's time to count the final harvest.
A chilling moment.
From October 19 to October 23, in five days, Westeros sold a total of 26,700 short contracts established at a high of 290 between 200 and 220 points, with a cumulative profit of $1.068 billion.
At the same time, Simon built a total of 8,000 long contracts between 200 and 220 during the same three-day trough, all of which were closed above 250 and made another profit of $165 million.
Counting the original $387 million principal in Westeros' account and the five-month operation of stock index futures, Simon's initial $75 million has skyrocketed to more than $1.62 billion at this time.
After the detailed statistics of the final financial data, both Simon and Janet were stunned for several minutes.
In Simon's memory, there is indeed a rumor that 7 million will be speculated into 20 billion in the futures market. But at this time, seeing that in just 5 months, the funds in his hands have suddenly magnified by more than 20 times, Simon still feels a little incredible.
Janet's reaction was more direct, and after a long moment of daze, the woman came over, curiously touched Simon's body for a while, and then said, "Little bastard, I regret it." ”