Chapter 813: Billion-dollar speculation

After graduating from the University of Chicago with a Ph.D., Zhu Changhong resolutely abandoned his hobby of physics for more than ten years, and instead devoted himself to the Bank of America and became a bond trader.

At that time, this move caused an uproar in China, and its effect was on the same level as that of the big girl Yan, who expressed her dissatisfaction with the United States to Clinton during US President Clinton's visit to China, and finally married her American boyfriend.

But then, Zhu Changhong was not slapped in the face, but used his strength to prove that his choice was correct.

Zhu Changhong used what he learned to establish a model of interest rates and mortgages, which played an important role in the interest rate risk and relative transaction value protection of American banks.

At the age of 29, Zhu Changhong, who was already well-known in the American bond industry, successfully joined the Pacific Investment Management Company, the world's largest bond brokerage company, established by Bill Gross, who is known as the king of bonds.

Served as a portfolio manager in the government bond, agency debt and derivatives divisions, and became the right-hand man of Bill Gross, a well-known investor and bond magnate.

Just six years later, Zhu was promoted to managing director of Pacific Investment Management, where he managed a $23 billion "absolute return strategy" hedge fund series, paving the way for his transformation into an investment officer in the global investment market.

It can be said that at that moment, Zhu Changhong was one of the world's most famous bond investment managers.

If the story comes to this point, it can only be said to be an inspirational story of a genius Chinese who successfully squeezed into high society in the United States.

But it's not.

Thirty-nine-year-old Zhu Changhong was called back to China by the Foreign Exchange Reserves Administration to become the chief investment officer of the Foreign Exchange Reserves Administration to ensure the safe appreciation of China's $2.3 trillion in assets.

Zhu Changhong, who is in charge of 2.3 trillion US dollars, stands on a larger platform, and China's foreign exchange reserves exceed the total assets managed by the top 100 pure financial institutions in the United States, Zhu Changhong is also known as the world's largest fund manager, and the funds he is responsible for are growing at a scale of tens of billions of dollars every month.

The emergence of Zhu Changhong has brought about major changes in China's investment in foreign reserves, and the proportion of investment in corporate bonds and stocks has increased significantly, thus solving the problem of an excessively high proportion of US bonds in China's foreign reserves.

You must know that in the past, the China Foreign Exchange Administration would only increase its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, which made many top traders in the international foreign exchange market quite disdainful.

After serving in the Foreign Exchange Reserve Administration for four years, Zhu Changhong drifted away, completely ending his career in the rivers and lakes, and disappeared into the world.

It can be said that there is no second top trader like Zhu Changhong in the whole of China and even in the world.

First, they have not managed such a huge amount of dollars as more than two trillion or even more than three trillion.

Second, if they manage it, they are probably not as good as Zhu Changhong's management.

Thinking of this, Fang Chen couldn't help grinning, he really never expected Chen Shaoxuan to be with Zhu Changhong.

But after thinking about it again, he suddenly found that the two of them had a lot in common, they both liked physics at first, and later they both wanted to become traders.

"Mr. Fang, what do you think of my senior brother?"

Seeing that Fang Chen didn't speak for a long time, Chen Shaoxuan couldn't help but speak.

Fang Chen didn't answer directly, but glanced at Zhu Changhong up and down again, and then said after a few deep breaths: "Dr. Zhu, what I'm going to do next, I believe you already know, so I want to ask you a few questions, what do you think about the future of the pound? I want to hear your opinion." ”

Well, that's right, Fang Chen has the idea of pounding at this moment, ready to dig up a piece of meat in Britain, an empire where the sun never sets.

No, it should be said that he has been eyeing the pound for a long time, and blocking the pound is also a big killer he prepared in order to alleviate the pressure on the sales funds of Qingtian Communications!

Otherwise, where would he easily make a billion dollars?

Who the president of the United States is, many Chinese may not know, but who Soros is, everyone is terrified. In line with the argument that imperialism will not die, Soros has long been the embodiment of all evils of capitalism in China.

And Soros's battle for fame is to block the pound in 1992!

He did something that had never been done before, he shook the supposedly strong tree of Great Britain to see how powerful it really was.

Soros used $2 billion in fund capital and 5 times leverage to leverage $10 billion in short positions in pounds, and finally took $1 billion in profits!

This day is destined to go down in the annals of financial history and is destined to be the darkest day in the British financial market.

On this day, a poor Hungarian Jewish immigrant who had barely completed an economics course at the London School of Economics defeated the famous Bank of England.

In 1992, Soros's fund grew by 67.5 percent, and he personally topped Financial World's Wall Street income rankings for netting $650 million, a record he held until 2018.

As a master speculator of this era, Soros turned his initial capital of $4 million into $1 billion in just 16 years. Soros also came up with the famous theory of reflexivity and is a veritable philosopher in the financial markets.

After listening to Fang Chen's culture, Zhu Changhong's heart was pounding, he knew that the real test was coming, whether he could have and operate hundreds of millions of funds, make waves in the capital market, and complete his dream depends on his answer today.

Forcing himself to calm down, Zhu Changhong carefully checked the draft he had already typed, and then said slowly: "To be honest, the pound, as the world's main circulating currency, has been tied to other currencies in the euro area after joining the euro area, especially the strong German mark, which has greatly increased the value of the pound and maintained a strong confidence. ”

Speaking of this, Zhu Changhong subconsciously glanced at Fang Chen, and saw that Fang Chen's face was expressionless, and he couldn't see the slightest bit of joy and anger, and his heart couldn't help but hang.

But he was already ready to send it, so he organized the language again, and then continued: "But in my opinion, there is room for the exchange rate of the pound to fall, and now the pound is actually at the level of 2.95 marks per pound with the German mark, and I think the pound is overvalued." ”

Hearing this, a glimmer of light flashed in Fang Chen's eyes, and he said slowly: "Then do you think there is room for the pound to fall?"

"Yes!" Zhu Changhong replied categorically.

But in the next moment, Zhu Changhong said with a wry smile: "But in practice, I'm afraid it's too difficult, after all, it is the Bank of England that manages the pound exchange rate, which is the world's earliest central bank and the originator of the central bank system of various countries. ”

The British pound has been the world's main currency for 200 years, and when it was originally pegged to gold, the British pound occupied an extremely important position in the world's financial markets.

It was only the First World War and the stock market crash of 1992 that forced the British government to abandon the gold standard and adopt a floating system, and the pound's position in the world market continued to decline, but the proportion of the pound paid in global transactions exceeded 20%.

The Bank of England, as an important institution to ensure market stability, is a strong pillar of the British financial system, with extremely rich market experience and strong strength, and no one has ever dared to oppose the country's financial system, or even dare to think about it.

Therefore, he is really not very optimistic, Fang Chen wants to shake the pound and get a handful of it from the pound.

Moreover, from the perspective of world history, the currencies that can be manipulated by international financial predators are only a few small countries.

There is no case of the world's great powers having their currencies manipulated and then profiting from them.

As for the Plaza Accord, that's an exception!

Or, if you join the manipulator with the strength of the United States and still have troops on the other side's soil, then it is possible.

Otherwise, the possibility of manipulating the currencies of the world's great powers is almost zero.

Fang Chen nodded lightly, which could be regarded as a compliment to Zhu Changhong.

Although Zhu Changhong does not think that the pound has the possibility of manipulation for profit, at this time, it can be said with such certainty that the pound has room for manipulation, and Zhu Changhong's strength and vision are already very good.

To be honest, before Soros did this, no one really dared to use their brains on the pound.

But this just says a lot about how powerful and ruthless this master of opportunism, vulture, marauder, is.

In 1990, Britain decided to join the European Exchange Rate System, a new monetary system created by Western European countries.

As the so-called success, Xiao He defeated, Xiao He.

The European exchange rate system makes the currencies of Western European countries no longer pegged to gold or the dollar, but to each other, each currency is only allowed to float within a certain exchange rate range, once the prescribed exchange rate fluctuation range, the central banks of each member country have the responsibility to intervene in the market by buying and selling their own currencies to stabilize the country's currency exchange rate within the specified range.

Failure to do so will result in a forced exit from the European exchange rate system.

This was supposed to be a good policy to increase the stability of the currencies of the EU countries.

As a result, it was used by financial predators like Soros.

No way, when the British economy is in a long-term recession and is in a difficult situation, it is impossible for the UK to maintain a policy of high interest rates, and the only feasible way to stimulate the country's economic development is to lower interest rates.

But if Germany's interest rates are not lowered, and the UK unilaterally cuts them, it will weaken the pound and force Britain to withdraw from the European exchange rate system. However, the British government is constrained by the European exchange rate system and must struggle to maintain the exchange rate of the pound against the mark.

In the European exchange rate system, England, the world's oldest central bank with 300 years of history, has shown its shrinking, and can only be beaten passively, with no power to fight back.