Chapter 814: Knock the Pound Down!
Fang Chen's fingers tapped lightly on the table, lost in thought.
But the thud of fingers on the table was particularly piercing in the silence of the room, and everyone felt as if their hearts had been hammered down.
The chest is stuffy, the mouth is dry, not to mention how uncomfortable it is, it really makes people feel crazy.
But no one dared to speak out, for fear that the slightest movement would interrupt Fang Chen's thinking.
After a long time, Fang Chen's fingers tapped on the tabletop abruptly, and everyone couldn't help but breathe a long sigh of relief, they felt as if they had just been tortured.
"How much do you think the pound can depreciate at most?" Fang Chen stared at Zhu Changhong intently, throwing out the last question.
Zhu Changhong pondered for a while, and quickly replied: "If it is the exchange rate with the Deutsche Mark, I think it can depreciate to 1 pound sterling to 2.8 German marks at most, and if it is to the exchange rate with the US dollar, it can depreciate to 1 pound at most to 1.8 US dollars." ”
Immediately afterwards, Zhu Changhong explained: "In order to join the European exchange rate system, the United Kingdom promised the European Community that the exchange rate of the British pound against the German mark will be capped at 3.1320 marks, the lower limit will be 2.7780 marks, and the central exchange rate will be 2.95 marks, which will float by about 6% Left, if it exceeds the lower limit of 2.7780, it means that the UK can only withdraw from the European exchange rate system, which will definitely be strangled by the sharks who heard the wind, so 2.8 is the bottom line that the pound must not break, and the Bank of England and the entire European community will stick to this bottom line. ”
Fang Chen raised his eyebrows and chuckled undeniably, the seven words 'the pound can keep the exchange rate' sounded like a big joke to him.
Although the Deutsche Mark did not exist before he was reborn, the dollar is there, not to mention maintaining the current exchange rate of 1 pound to 1.9 dollars, and almost even 1 pound to 1.2 dollars has almost not been held.
Some experts expect that after the official Brexit, the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar will fall to around 1.15.
Thinking about it again, in 1949, the terrifying exchange rate of 1 pound to 4 US dollars, Fang Chen couldn't help grinning.
Suddenly, a thought flashed through his mind, and Fang Chen realized something.
That is, the history of the fall of the pound exchange rate is actually the history of the decline of the British Empire, the oldest capitalist country in the world, which claims that the sun never sets.
"I don't think it's impossible for Britain to hold on to the 2.8 exchange rate, and sooner or later it will be forced to withdraw from the European exchange rate system, and it will eventually hit 2.5, or even lower. Fang Chen said slowly.
Hearing Fang Chen actually say that the exchange rate of the pound to the German mark would fall to 2.5, or even lower, Zhu Changhong felt that his neck was pinched by a strong hand, and he was about to suffocate.
According to Fang Chen, the exchange rate of the pound will be reduced by 20%!
Then this is the pound, after the first large-scale devaluation on September 18, 1949, another unprecedented devaluation!
To be honest, Zhu Changhong's first reaction was not to believe it, but looking at Fang Chen's relaxed and indifferent smile, his heart couldn't help but chuckle, and he instantly believed three points.
As the so-called name of the person and the shadow of the tree, Fang Chen's achievements in the economy are too great, they are simply unprecedented!
In particular, he saw with his own eyes how Fang Chen made waves in the Shencheng stock market, and then retreated!
Therefore, he really doesn't believe that Fang Chen will be untargeted in such a big thing as the depreciation of the pound!
Since Fang Chen dared to say this, he must have his own reason.
He felt that it was impossible, perhaps it was only because his Taoism was not good enough that he could not see through it.
Thinking of this, Zhu Changhong smiled bitterly, if he could have a Taoist like Fang Chen, he would also be able to earn tens of billions of assets.
He believed Fang Chen's shocking words just now, and he believed it two more points.
Moreover, the pound has not been depreciated on a large scale, in 1949, the pound depreciated by 30.5% in one fell swoop.
Fang Chen shrugged his shoulders, looking a little helpless, it is indeed a bit unbelievable that the pound has depreciated so much, but in fact it is so.
The foundation for a sharp depreciation of the pound was actually laid on the 5th of the month, when the United Kingdom announced its accession to the European monetary system.
In the evening, the European Community's finance minister issued a statement of welcome, saying that the British have entered a new era and will have a great renaissance from now on.
But that in itself is a false start.
All because the pound is already overvalued at this time.
At the economic level, the UK was on the verge of recession at this time, inflation soared, and the consumer price index had risen from 5% to 8% from the beginning of 1989 to September 1990, before joining the European exchange rate system.
The implementation of high interest rate policies does not seem to be effective against high inflation, but instead increases the risk of recession.
So the British government is in a dilemma, keep interest rates high, the Great Depression is inevitable, but the interest rate cut inflation can't stand it.
They are more worried that this will lead to the depreciation of the pound and capital outflows, which will lead to financial and economic crises.
Therefore, they pinned their hopes on external forces, so they chose to join the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System to stabilize the pound exchange rate and control inflation.
Immediately after joining the European Monetary System, the UK announced a 1% interest rate cut.
Facts have proved that the British are still very chicken thieves, and after joining the European exchange rate system, Britain's consumer price index has indeed fallen sharply.
On February 7, 992, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Finance of the twelve countries of the European Community signed the Maastricht Treaty, marking another advance of the euro and the determination to unify the European continent with the euro.
By the way, the two people who wanted to unify Europe last time were Napoleon and the other was the Führer, you know the ending.
All failed!
So this time the road to the euro is not destined to be smooth.
In fact, the establishment of the euro was indeed a bumpy road, and the Americans would definitely not agree to the establishment of the euro in order to challenge the dollar.
At this time, the economic weakness made it impossible for the pound to maintain an overvalued exchange rate.
However, because of its accession to the European monetary system, the pound must be pegged to the mark, and there is a lower limit, so it can only float within the limits of the exchange rate mechanism, and it is tied hand and foot.
In a dilemma, if the pound depreciates, it is very likely to exceed the lower limit of the exchange rate, then it will break away from the European monetary system, declare the failure of British foreign exchange policy, and the government will be greatly demoralized.
If the pound does not depreciate, the exchange rate is overvalued, and capital votes with its feet, foreign exchange reserves will continue to bleed, and the consequences will be very serious.
But the British Empire chose to die.
And all this was watched by a bloody crocodile hidden next to it.
Especially after the defeat of Italy, knowing that Germany would not hurt itself in order to save the currencies of other countries.
The attackers, represented by Soros's Quantum Fund, threw out the chips that had accumulated for several months at the same time with lightning speed, and at the same time used the tactics of the sea of people to cooperate with the overwhelming momentum of the media! In addition, many factors contributed to the shorting of the pound, and directly started a hand-to-hand battle with the Bank of England!
In the end, the British government compromised, announcing that they would abandon the low level of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism member countries, and cancel the pegging mechanism between the British pound and the Deutsche Mark, and the Bank of England would no longer intervene in the pound exchange rate.
As soon as this news broke, the pound was ravaged and devoured like a little sheep in a wolf pack. The market went into free fall, with GBPUSD falling from 1.9 to 1.6 and GBP/DM falling from 2.9 to 2.4 – a process that took only a few minutes.
At this time, almost all market participants are selling pounds, and the amount of money sold is hundreds of millions, and any buy order will be swallowed up by the market in an instant, and the pound seems to have been sucked into a black hole.
In this battle to defend the pound, the Bank of England has invested 33 billion pounds, which is equivalent to 10 dollars in the pocket of every British.
And the victorious international speculators made a lot of money.
Among them, NatWestminster Bank made more than $100 million, Goldman Sachs made tens of millions of dollars, and the important thing is that these profits were made in just one day.
Soros and his quantum fund made a profit of more than $1 billion on the day.
If you count them all, long positions on interest rate futures in the UK, France and Germany and short trades on the Italian lira make Soros's total profit of up to $2 billion, of which Soros has 1/3 of his personal income. During the year, Soros's fund grew by 67.5%.
After thinking about it and feeling that there were no other questions to ask, Fang Chen suddenly stood up, stretched out his hand at Zhu Changhong, and said with a smile: "Dr. Zhu, I now welcome you to join Qingtian Company and serve as the chief operator of this operation. ”
All of a sudden, everyone was stunned, and Zhu Changhong looked at Fang Chen in disbelief, he really didn't expect that there would be such a peak.
When Fang Chen judged that the pound would depreciate to 2.5 or even lower, he actually had no hope of getting this position at all.
After all, he was predicting 2.8.
It may not seem like much, but you should know that the currency exchange rate moves in units of 1‱, that is, 1/10,000th, and this unit is called a basis point.
The difference between 2.8 and 2.5 is 0.3, which is actually equal to 3,000 basis points.
In the international exchange rate market, a change of 50 basis points can be called a big fluctuation, let alone a difference of 3,000 basis points.
And most importantly, he is only 22 years old.
No, the twenty-second birthday has not yet passed, it should be said that it is twenty-one years old, even in the financial market where there are many geniuses, it is too young.
Moreover, not to mention manipulating tens of billions of funds, he has not even manipulated 100 million funds.
He remembered that the craziest time he was to use the capital of 100,000 US dollars and add 20 times the leverage, following the international financial predators to short the yen.
In that time, he was paid double his profits.
But even if leverage is counted, the amount of funds he manipulates is only 3 million US dollars, 16 million Chinese dollars.
This 16 million Huaxia coins, compared with 10 billion funds, is really unreasonable!
But looking at Fang Chen's outstretched hand again, Zhu Changhong suddenly felt like the next day, like a dream, full of unreality.
Fang Chen didn't urge, but looked at Zhu Changhong with a smile on his face.
Although Zhu Changhong's answer was not satisfactory to a person like him who knew history, Zhu Changhong's ideas did not deviate much from the general direction of actual history.
It can only be said that Zhu Changhong's courage is not so big.
Moreover, if Zhu Changhong really dares to insist that the exchange rate of the pound to the German mark will fall by 2.4, then he may have to wonder if Zhu Changhong is a reborn like him.
Even in other words, at this moment, I am afraid that even Soros himself is not sure that the exchange rate of the pound will fall to 2.4, but he did not expect that in the dark, there are so many financial predators who peep at the pound like him.
In other words, this rout of the pound is the result of the joint efforts of these countless financial predators, and no one expected it.
However, the most important thing is that if you change another person, don't want Zhu Changhong, and get this person's thoughts to be the same as the facts?
Fang Chen didn't matter, and he felt that he was even more conservative than Zhu Changhong.
Or, presumably, only if he himself goes into battle, can he ensure that his thoughts are exactly the same as his.
But the problem is that he doesn't trade, and for this kind of thing, he simply knows six out of seven - none of them.
In addition, one thing Fang Chen can be sure of is that he should not be able to find someone who is higher than Zhu Changhong's trading level and is reliable.
Those who are higher than Zhu Changhong's trading level are all foreigners.
But he didn't dare to trust a foreigner in such a big matter, unless that person was Russian, and he was a native of Russia with a large number of relatives, maybe it was about the same.
But Russia doesn't even have a stock exchange, where is he going to find a trader.
Therefore, he can only find Huaxia people to operate for him.
But now although China is a little better than Russia, it still can't get rid of the name of the stock market desert, after all, the first stock exchange has only been established for more than a year, and most people don't even know what shorts and longs are.
And recently, it was given a head start by this unprecedented stock market crash, and it was directly abolished.
pinched his thigh hard, the pain was incomparable, and after finding out that it was not a hallucination, Zhu Changhong said with some excitement: "Mr. Fang, I heard it right, right?"
"That's right, but I have a request, and that is that you come to do it, but you have to listen to me completely to do something. Fang Chen said solemnly, his eyes seemed to bloom with a dazzling light.
"No problem, I assure you, I will do what you say you will do. Zhu Changhong said calmly.
But the trembling calves completely preserved the true thoughts of his heart.
Now don't talk about blocking the pound, what Fang Chen says to do, he will do it, even if Fang Chen asks him to withdraw from school immediately, he will do it without hesitation.
After all, the biggest dream in his life is to be able to control an investment company with tens of billions of funds, and now that Fang Chen has let him realize this dream, does it matter if he doesn't go to school?
In particular, if he succeeds in stopping the pound and defeating the Bank of England as Fang Chen said, then he, as a specific trader, can definitely make a name for himself among hedge fund companies and even financial companies around the world.
Thinking of this, Zhu Changhong suddenly felt a fire ignited in his heart!
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