After a few questions, the topic of Qi Zheng and Yang Ye began to deepen gradually.

It can be said that milk has always been endowed by the Chinese people with hope, health and good expectations.

However, the good impression of Chinese people on dairy products has not been completely projected on dairy companies.

If the development history of China's dairy enterprises is compared to the development history of a person, the Sanlu incident is like his coming-of-age ceremony.

Before 08 years, the development of the dairy industry was like a person's childhood and young adulthood, constantly breaking through the bottleneck to achieve development, after the Sanlu incident, the dairy industry experienced a huge blow, and finally forced to mature after the pain.

It's the quiet period before the storm, but the discerning people in the industry are already aware of the hidden dangers.

Qi Zheng found out in the conversation that at least Yang Ye already had a hazy sense of crisis.

"During my study abroad, I visited the dairy industry chain in several countries. Unlike the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other large pastoral countries, China's grassland resources are far inferior. In this regard, China and PICs actually have a lot in common. Drawing on the rise of the dairy industry in island countries, I always feel that there are big gaps and loopholes in our dairy policies and regulations. Yang Ye said with a deep gaze.

Qi Zheng quietly listened to Yang Ye's analysis of the industry, combined with the traceability of the chaos in the dairy industry in later generations, and could only sigh with emotion, there must be evil causes.

Let's start with the cyclical nature of the dairy industry.

Dairy cows need to go through four stages from birth to milk production: calves, rearing cows, green cows, and adult cows, and cows can only lactate after calving, and the whole growth cycle takes about 2 years.

Due to the long growth cycle of dairy cows, there is a mismatch between supply and demand time, and there is a strong cyclical price in price, usually 3-4 years for a cycle.

To put it simply, when the demand for dairy products is strong, the milk supply will lag behind due to the growth cycle of dairy cows.

And this will inevitably lead to competition from dairy companies.

And because of the lack of natural endowment in China, the cost of domestic cattle raising is high. On the one hand, land resources are relatively scarce, dairy enterprises can only raise dairy cows in captivity, and the cost of land, epidemic prevention and environmental protection is high; on the other hand, the quality level of forage is low, most of the high-quality forage grass depends on imports, and the cost of feed is also high.

This can easily lead to the reluctance of dairy enterprises to spend time on the construction of milk sources.

Therefore, the main source of milk supply today is retail dairy farmers.

Unlike developed countries that rely on the breeding end to build a dairy industry chain, more large dairy enterprises in China integrate the breeding end into their own systems and build an industrial chain with the processing end as the core.

Generally speaking, whoever is the core has the right to speak and the right to price.

Due to the strong breeding end and close cooperation with processing enterprises in developed countries, dairy farmers and pastures can obtain greater value distribution in the industrial chain, while domestic dairy farmers and pastures are in a disadvantageous position in value distribution due to the dispersion of power, and processing enterprises grasp the main voice in the industry.

Because the status of dairy farmers is difficult to be equal to that of dairy enterprises, they are at an absolute disadvantage in the distribution of benefits. When the milk supply is tight, dairy farmers cannot raise the price of milk; when the milk source is loose or excessive, the dairy enterprises will lower the purchase price, and even adopt the grade and use unreasonable detection methods to reduce the price in disguise, so that the interests of dairy farmers are greatly harmed, and the dairy enterprises can make profits no matter whether the milk price is high or low.

From this point of view, the interests of dairy farmers and dairy enterprises are fundamentally opposed, and it is difficult for the two to become a community of interests. As a result, the business practices of dairy farmers and dairy companies are speculative to varying degrees.

The breeding side is in a weak position, but they also want to make money, what should they do? Counterfeiting is undoubtedly the lowest cost and the most effective method.

This is the direct cause of the poisoned milk incident.

Of course, due to the complex interests of dairy farmers, milk sellers and dairy companies, there is a debate about who is most responsible.

Although they are unhappy with the island country, Yang Ye is right in saying that their experience in controlling the chaos in the dairy industry is indeed worth learning from.

In the same situation of dense population, mountainous land, and lack of fodder and pasture, the dairy industry of the island country plays a pivotal role in the country's agriculture.

This is because since the 60s of the last century, the island countries have maximized the use of grassland resources through policy regulation and control, comprehensively managed the excessive competition of the dairy industry, and promoted the rapid development of the dairy industry in the island countries.

Small-scale operations inevitably lead to higher production costs for dairy farmers. By raising the requirements for breeding, implementing intensive management, and expanding the scale of dairy farming, the island countries have formed a relatively obvious advantageous breeding area, which is in stark contrast to the extremely scattered dairy farming status quo in China.

In the field of processing, by improving processing standards and encouraging mergers and acquisitions of dairy enterprises, the concentration of dairy processing has become more obvious, so that the excessive competition in the dairy industry has been effectively controlled.

Yang Ye asserted: "We are now in a period of rapid development, but the quality of development cannot be studied deeply. I don't know how long the dairy industry will continue to grow today, but I can be sure that the development of a well-developed regulatory model will not go far. ”

"There's nothing new under the sun. The biggest victim of disorderly competition is the industry as a whole. But unfortunately, whether we like it or not, we will eventually be drawn into this war. Qi Zheng said helplessly.

Yang Ye also realized this and couldn't help but sigh.

The current competitive situation in the dairy market is clear at a glance.

Enterprises are divided into echelons, and the polarization is obvious.

Yili's national leader is the first echelon, cross-regional brands such as Fierce Bull, Guangming and New Hope are the second echelon, provincial leaders are the third echelon, and regional small brands are the fourth echelon.

Specifically, the growth rate of the top two echelons continued to maintain rapid growth, and the share of small and medium-sized dairy enterprises accelerated to concentrate on them; small and medium-sized dairy enterprises performed two-level differentiation, dark horses broke through with single products, and foreign expansion encountered resistance.

However, Qi Zheng and Yang Ye both know that the rapid growth of the domestic dairy market means that the real competition pattern has not yet been laid, and the intensity of industry competition will be further improved.

At this historical juncture, Jiagu entered the dairy industry, with the goal of creating a new dairy order.

Over the past 10 years, it has been Yili that has driven the development of China's dairy industry.

In the next 10 years, who will drive China's dairy industry forward, and where is the broader territory of China's dairy enterprises?

When will China be able to enter the ranks of the world's dairy power as a whole, achieve the goal of revitalizing the dairy industry, and firmly hold the "milk bottle" in our own hands?

It depends on who can master the business experience of the dairy industry.

In the next 10 years of China's dairy industry, more enterprises will grow into national enterprises, more foreign-funded enterprises will enter China, and more Chinese enterprises will go global, and the battlefield of competition may evolve into dozens or hundreds.

For large enterprises, there is only an advantage, but for small enterprises, there is never a shortage of opportunities.

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