Jiagu's request to "improve the biosecurity level of pig farms" was sent to the desk of Qin Yinglin, the CEO of Muyuan Co., Ltd., almost at the same time as the public news of "the first African swine fever epidemic in China".

Qin Yinglin looked at the news on the left: "...... A few days ago, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued an early warning of African swine fever level II, confirming that China's first case of African swine fever in pigs occurred in Kyrgyzstan Province. In accordance with the requirements, the local government activated the emergency response mechanism, took measures such as blockade, culling, harmless treatment, and disinfection, and prohibited all pigs and susceptible animals and products from entering or leaving the blockade area. As of the time of the press release, all 1,079 pigs in the epidemic site have been culled and harmless, and the epidemic has been effectively controlled......"

Looking at Jiagu's prevention and control requirements of "building high walls and washing fire protection" on the right, for a while, his expression was really a little subtle.

In front of him, it was the vice president of the company chattering: "Affected by the negative news of African swine fever, the pork concept stocks on the stock market have all been wiped out, and the stock price has continued to fall......

"Whether the African swine fever epidemic will affect pig prices, the major pig price warning analysts have been assessed, most people expect that the African swine fever epidemic will not have an impact on consumption, short-term or due to panic selling prices have fallen, but the overall does not change the original trend of pig prices, and the impact on industry demand is limited......"

From the perspective of market analysis, as said in the news, the industry is basically optimistic about controlling African swine fever. But the experienced Qin Yinglin felt that something was wrong.

He flipped through the documents from Jiagu, put them down for a while, and interrupted the vice president's words: "You said so much because you don't agree with Jiagu's request?"

The vice president paused before saying, "Yes, I don't quite agree." ”

"Why?" Qin Yinglin raised his head, unable to see his joy or anger.

The vice president hesitated: "I think the most important job of our company at present is to impact the listing. African swine fever is not a big threat, the company's original biosecurity level is sufficient, and it is not necessary to spend energy on improving the biosecurity level. ”

"How do you conclude that African swine fever is not a big threat?" The vice president was just about to speak, but Qin Yinglin raised his hand to stop him: "You and I both know that African swine fever has appeared, and it is most likely to have two outcomes. ”

"First, the disease is sporadic and sporadic in the epidemic area, and the epidemic area adopts a policy of isolation, blockade and culling to effectively block the spread of the disease. The pig market is only affected by the epidemic for a short period of time, the probability of pig price decline has increased, and the national supply and demand side has not had much impact, and the pig price is still in the annual seasonal market. ”

"The second is that the disease has changed from a single point to a multi-point outbreak, regional epidemic, involving a wide area, pig prices in epidemic areas have further risen due to the shortage of pigs, and other regions may have panic due to the spread of the epidemic and have not been effectively controlled, and the sell-off will be staged, and pig prices will fall first and then rise. The epidemic has accelerated the reduction of production capacity, and at the same time, the replenishment column has been postponed, and a new round of economic upward cycle will come in advance. ”

This is not a difficult conclusion to come to, and the vice president nodded: "Yes." ”

"The analysis in the market is leaning towards the first possibility, well, including you too. Of course, judging from the current situation, African swine fever seems to have been effectively controlled. ”

"Hmm. ”

But judging from Jiagu's reaction, they are inclined to the second possibility, no, they are not tendencies, they can be regarded as identified. Qin Yinglin frowned and said.

The vice president can't deny this.

If it weren't for the fact that ASF is seen as a big trouble and a big threat, Jiagu would not have taken action on its own, and at the same time, it would have asked stakeholders involved in the Jiagu pork chain to act together.

Qin Yinglin leaned back in the chair and said, "Then do you think why Jia Gu made such a judgment? Could it be that he came up with it by patting his head?"

The vice president really wanted to say that Jiagu really came up with it, but how could he say that, he could only say that: "I heard that Jiagu has a strategic business department, and there is a department in it that is for intelligence gathering. This department often makes some anti-popular conclusions......"

Muyuan shares can be regarded as having been in contact with the Jiagu system for a short time, although they do not know much about the more hidden information bureau of the Jiagu system. But it's no secret that the Strategy Department recruits professionals in the form of social behavior analysis every year to analyze and discuss intelligence.

Most consortia have a similar system, which mainly collects public information, and then analyzes the public information, and often comes to the right conclusion. Muyuan shares have not yet been sublimated to the level of a consortium, let alone professional intelligence analysis.

Qin Yinglin also knew about the intelligence collection and analysis system of the Jiagu system, and he took this opportunity to mention: "The correct conclusion must be based on correct and reasonable information. Jiagu's information gathering, for its scale, is far superior to that of market analysts. I don't understand why you think the judgment in the market is more credible than that of Kagoku. ”

The vice president was slightly unconvinced, and finally said helplessly: "What you said makes sense." ”

Qin Yinglin shook his head: "That's because you ignored a point, Jiagu's prevention and control requirements came almost at the same time as the news, what does this mean? It means that Jiagu got the news earlier and made a plan, and people's information is unimpeded to this extent, can't it explain the problem?"

The vice president's face was pale, and he didn't say anything else.

Qin Yinglin thought deeper: "Besides, aside from the trouble and cost rise caused by raising the biosecurity level of pig farms, do you know what Jiagu's judgment will mean if it comes true?"

The vice president sobered up from his personal emotions, thought about it, and affirmed: "It means opportunity." ”

"That's right. Qin Yinglin patted his thigh and said: "If African swine fever spreads, it will be a tragedy for small and medium-sized retail investors, but for large pig enterprises, it will bring a rare opportunity." For a long time, retail investors did not dare to raise pigs, but we dare to prepare in advance and have a strong ability to resist risks. You don't even need to grab the market, you just need to go in and get it. ”

The vice president also listened to the heart wavering, if this is really the case, it must be an excellent opportunity period for Muyuan shares to reach a higher level.

"Jiagu is a partner, and he is strong enough. Qin Yinglin muttered to himself: "But in this way, it is not suitable for listing now." ”

Qin Yinglin was a little hesitant, Muyuan had already postponed the listing once, and it would be difficult for investors to explain it again.

However, thinking of Jiagu's judgment, he still gritted his teeth and said: "Postponement is postponed, the first priority now is to improve the prevention and control level of pig farms in accordance with Jiagu's requirements, and you will focus on following up." ”

The vice president immediately responded: "No problem. ”

Qin Yinglin was not at ease, and emphasized: "You have to follow up in person." As you know, Jiagu has the largest breeding sow herd in China, which is a big killer in the blank market opportunity period. If our prevention and control is not done well, don't even think about the later cakes. ”

The vice president was impressed, the boss is the boss, and this further thought about three steps, which is already a bit of the charm of Jiagu's style of acting.

......