The news sent by the Information Bureau in an urgent manner made Qi Zhengdu put down his inspection work and returned to the Jiagu headquarters as quickly as possible.

Wang Yuye, the general manager of the group, who was notified by Wei Ming in advance, as well as the heads of the strategy department, the public relations department, Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry and other departments, were already waiting in the conference room.

When Qi Zheng stepped into the conference room, he had no intention of greeting everyone, so he asked Ding Xian of the Strategy Department: "Is the news confirmed? Why haven't I seen the relevant reports on the news?"

Ding Xian didn't expect Qi Zheng to attach so much importance to it, and said with some surprise: "It's confirmed." 'African swine fever' has been on the supervision blacklist of the Information Bureau, and the northeast region happens to be the key monitoring area of the Information Bureau. As soon as the official confirmed the authenticity of the epidemic, I will inform you......"

The endless conversation between the two made the others in the conference room wonder, but Li Dongliang of Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry heard the words "African swine fever", and his face became solemn.

After Qi Zheng confirmed the news, he fell silent for a while.

Ding Xian also saw the puzzled expressions of others, coughed lightly, and introduced: "That's the case, we confirm that there has been an outbreak of African swine fever in pigs in Ji Province, which is the first African swine fever epidemic in my country......"

"African swine fever?" Zhang Zehong of the public relations department said that he was very unfamiliar with this term.

Who's to say it isn't? If it weren't for the name, it might be hard to associate "Africa" with "pigs", because Africa is really very small – in fact, Africa accounts for less than 2% of the world's pigs, thanks to African swine fever.

"African swine fever is a swine disease caused by an acute and highly contagious filtered virus. Infected pigs often show loss of appetite, high temperature, rapid heartbeat, difficulty breathing, cyanosis and bleeding of the skin. Although the onset is short, the mortality rate can be as high as 100%. Li Dongliang explained in a deep voice.

Ding Xian nodded and said: "At the beginning of the last century, African swine fever appeared in Kenya for the first time, and so far more than 60 countries have fought against African swine fever. Since the middle of the last century, African swine fever has spread across the Sahara Desert and in Europe, and now covers almost all of Europe. This is a highly contagious animal disease that our country has strictly guarded against, but unfortunately, it now seems that it has successfully invaded our country. ”

Even if there is no emotional understanding, hearing the two characteristics of "highly contagious" and "100% lethal" is enough for anyone to pay attention to.

Wang Yuye frowned and asked, "How did it get into China?"

Yes, Qi Zheng also wanted to ask this question.

Although others have been alerted to the dangers of African swine fever, how can they know what a disaster African swine fever is without a professional background.

And how could Qi Zheng not know?

This is the most serious "black swan event" in the history of Chinese pig farming, like a huge black canopy, enveloping the panic of all pig farmers.

The problem is that it shouldn't be this year.

At first glance, Qi Zheng's first reaction was, could this be related to my hanging?

But he quickly realized that this should not be directly related to him. Although he has pit Lao Mei and Lao Maozi, no matter how much he tosses, he will not toss his own family. Then there is only one possibility - the butterfly effect.

The deduction of the Ministry of Strategy also seems to confirm Qi Zheng's conjecture.

"In fact, I am not surprised that African swine fever has spread to my country. Because our northern neighbor, Russia, has been battling African swine fever since it was invaded in 2007, and to this day, Russia continues to report outbreaks. ”

"ASF virus can enter a country in a variety of ways, including illegally or informally bringing in animal or pork products from an infected country, tourists and workers returning home with gifts from an infected country, wild boar invasions, food waste brought from abroad and fed to pigs, and so on. As you know, since the large-scale agricultural cooperation between Jiagu and the Russian Far East, there are many more people coming and going between China and Russia, and the above situation happens every day. Ding Xian said slowly.

The more Zhang Zehong listened, the more frightened he became, and he couldn't control his facial expressions: "This infection won't be related to us, right?"

If that's the case, it's over. He estimated that Jiagu would be scolded to death, and the public opinion situation faced by the public relations department would be completely out of control.

Ding Xian coughed twice, and hurriedly waved his hand and said, "No, no, the Information Bureau has checked it, and it can be determined that it has no direct relationship with our Jiagu." I'm talking about just one of the possibilities. Because there is also a lot of humanitarian aid and public works between China and many African countries, it is possible that it can be transmitted from Africa. ”

Others didn't say it, Zhang Zehong first breathed a sigh of relief, and there was no need to challenge the hell-level public relations.

Qi Zheng also secretly breathed a sigh of relief.

Although he knows that compared with parallel time and space, African swine fever appeared in China three years earlier, and it is very likely to be related to the "variable" of Duojiagu. But there is no explicit involvement, which can be regarded as avoiding a big thunder.

Ding Xian didn't know that the boss was also scared enough, so he continued the topic: "Of course, it is no longer the point to investigate the input source now. Everyone knows that the virus is infected, as long as there is the first case, it is no longer a pure land. The outbreak in Kyrgyzstan province is certainly not the end, and what we need to consider now is how much impact it will have on the domestic pig industry. ”

Hearing this, Wang Yuye raised his eyebrows and his eyes were sharp: "Since your strategy department has deduced and called us all over, what you want to get is not a good result, right?"

Ding Xian also nodded dryly: "Yes." ”

"We deduce that African swine fever will spread in a large area in the country, most provinces will fall, and the domestic pig industry must be prepared to fight a protracted war!"

"How long is the protracted war?"

Ding Xian took a deep breath: "It's two or three years as short, and ...... as long Unknown. ”

Li Dongliang, who frowned quietly, sighed and said, "No, right? In the past few years, there has not been a large-scale swine fever epidemic in China, such as the highly pathogenic PRRS in 07, which was controlled in just one year...... Stubborn?"

Obviously, even Li Dongliang, who has a certain professional background, still underestimates the catastrophic nature of African swine fever without having been in contact with it.

In this regard, the more comprehensive strategy department will definitely not underestimate.

Ding Xian shook his head and said, "PRRS was brought under control because there was a vaccine soon. However, African swine fever is still a 'terminal disease' after a hundred years, and I don't think our country will be able to develop a targeted vaccine in a short period of time. ”

"Besides, the high density of domestic pig herds, which can be said to be the center of a storm full of risk factors, can be called the foundation for a large-scale outbreak of African swine fever......

- Our country has nearly half of the world's pig herd, which is a sky-high number. If converted into density, the density can be imagined, and the risk can also be imagined.

"What's more, large domestic pig farms are good to say, and biosecurity measures are at least guaranteed. However, small and medium-sized retail investors basically have little hope for biosecurity checks. I dare say that if the government does not provide adequate compensation to infected pig farmers, it is easy for pig farmers to keep secrets and not report them, and if the quarantine is not strictly enforced, the epidemic will accelerate the spread of the epidemic. ”

"There is also long-distance transportation of pigs, and foreign studies have also shown that nearly half of the African swine fever epidemic is caused by the transportation of pigs. We all know that the domestic inter-provincial pig transportation is known to the quality of employees and the lack of industry self-discipline, heh......"

"To sum up, with the complexity of the domestic pig industry, it is extremely difficult to completely eradicate African swine fever in the short term, and the deduction team of the Ministry of Strategy predicts that it is only a matter of time before African swine fever spreads to the whole country. ”

As you all know, the Strategy Department's deductions generally follow one law, Murphy's Law, and if there is a chance that things will go bad, no matter how small that likelihood, it will happen sooner or later.

But people, on the contrary, are always willing to think about the results for the better before encountering the pain of the skin.

Li Dongliang is not so likely to "see the good but not the bad", but he thought of another possibility: "If African swine fever can be controlled, what needs to be worried is that consumers do not eat pork because of African swine fever, resulting in an oversupply of pork and a sharp drop in pig prices......"

"Yes, it's also possible. The Strategy Department has also done this deduction, but what is the probability of getting this result......" Ding Xian shrugged.

These are two very different direction predictions, which also imply very different layouts.

It can be said that this is the significance of the strategy department - through careful analysis, the situation trend with a higher probability can be obtained to help the management avoid risks.

Of course, as long as it is a prediction, there will definitely be mistakes. The world's top forecasting agencies can all fail before the "king of understanding" comes to power, so what situation will not arise? As for whether the "king of understanding" can win back a game before he steps down, that is another story.

In this case, it depends on the vision of the main decision-makers.

Everyone's eyes fell on Qi Zheng.

Qi Zheng has read the conclusion of the deduction of the Ministry of Strategy three times, and searched for the information in his mind, and finally determined that all of them are right - the "future" African swine fever epidemic in his memory, after entering the country, it is basically a large-scale outbreak deduced by the Ministry of Strategy.

High herd density, poor biosecurity measures, quality of workers...... It's all said by the Strategy Department.

The question is, the time and place of the present are not in line with the "future" in memory, will the trend still be the same?

This point, unlike in the past, Qi Zheng does not have absolute confidence.

However, based on the deduction of the Strategy Department, as well as the reference in memory, he is inclined to the same result.

There is a saying, "This is both accidental and inevitable." ”

Thinking like this, Qi Zheng no longer hesitated.

He looked at Li Dongliang and Ding Xian at the same time: "It is said that risks and opportunities coexist, but first of all, we must guard against risks." Do you have a plan for the prevention and control of African swine fever?"

As we all know, the largest single million-level pig farm in the country and even in the world is still exclusive to Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry.

From the perspective of business model, the large-scale self-breeding and self-breeding business model of Jiagu pig farm will reduce the probability of infection with swine fever, but due to the higher breeding density, it will lead to more heavy losses once infected with African swine fever.

Therefore, before competing for market opportunities, we must first build our own "fence".

The two glanced at each other, and Ding Xian replied, "Yes." The most effective way to keep ASF virus outside the farm is to cut off the route of transmission. Raise the biosecurity level of Jiagu pig farm to the highest level to cope with the spread of African swine fever. ”

The highest level of biosecurity in Jiagu pig farm, in a word, is "closed and closed".

Including the comprehensive upgrade of epidemic prevention hardware, build a solid "wall epidemic prevention system", "living area and production area fence epidemic prevention system", "pig house and pig house isolation system" three lines of defense; and strict control of "five in and five out" - in addition to feed, drugs, vaccines, pigs and necessary production materials into the pig farm, other materials are reduced or prohibited from entering the pig farm; at the same time, all personnel, pigs, medical waste, garbage, pig manure out of the field, must go through transit, foreign vehicles are not allowed to enter the field.

After listening to this, Qi Zheng immediately decided: "Then from now on, the biosecurity level of pig farms will be raised to the highest level." ”

If it is a general risk, the normal biosecurity measures of Jiagu Pig Farm are sufficient to deal with it.

Qi Zheng demanded that it be raised to the highest level, that is, he recognized the results of the strategy department's deduction - the plague is like a mountain, and it must be prepared.

He thought for a moment and added: "Including our pig partners, all of them have asked for a higher biosafety level. ”

Li Dongliang was stunned and said: "Is it mandatory? But the partners do not have enough understanding of African swine fever, and I am afraid that many people will oppose it." ”

Qi Zheng's mouth pursed, and he said undoubtedly: "Then let them pay attention to it! At the moment of epidemic prevention, there is no room for bargaining......

If the memory of the future gave him another reference, that is, epidemic prevention is like a war, and the least requirement is that it is forbidden to order.

It doesn't matter whether it is human epidemic prevention or breeding epidemic prevention, it is nothing more than that.

......