On August 12, the country was quiet.

And in the United States, with a monthly report released by the Department of Agriculture, an undercurrent began to emerge.

On the same day, Qi Zheng received a call from Jiang Ping, who has been paying attention to soybean futures in the United States, "You are right again, the United States Department of Agriculture has sharply reduced the production of U.S. beans, citing dry weather." ”

Qi Zheng smiled meaningfully when he heard this, "Sure enough, as I expected, Brother Jiang, you said, how true and how false is the data released by the United States Department of Agriculture?"

Jiang Ping said, "We have made some statistics on the production areas, yields and harvests of some soybeans in the United States, and we have also obtained some meteorological forecast data, and the conclusion is that there is no sign of large-scale production reduction, but our data is certainly not as comprehensive as the United States Department of Agriculture, and it is difficult to say whether it is true or false." ”

Qi Zheng narrowed his eyes, "Whether it's true or not, I believe this is just the beginning." If my guess is correct, soon the United States will have to talk to our country about soybean imports. ”

Jiang Ping was silent for a moment, and then asked, "You mean that you think the data they released is not true?"

Qi Zhengdao: "Predictions are never perfect, and they are often even incorrect, either too high or too low. Do you think it's more likely that the U.S. soybean production forecast is too high or too low?"

On the phone, Jiang Ping's voice was a little distorted...... Standing in the position of our fund, of course, we hope that the data is true and the best, our fund is bullish on soybean futures in advance, and if the forecast data is reversed, we will lose a lot. ”

Qi Zheng smiled faintly, "Now it must be 'bullish' news, and the foundation should be able to make a small profit, especially when it comes to the next game between China and the United States, I guess the price will continue to soar." Brother Jiang, do you want to make a bet and see if my prediction is accurate?"

Jiang Ping smiled and said, "Hehe, your vision has always been a bit poisonous, don't gamble!"

"Tsk, it's really boring, Brother Jiang, you don't have the spirit of challenge at all. Look at 'Mao, Chinese, Net'

“......”

Hanging up the phone, Qi Zheng recalled the news delivered by Jiang Ping and fell into thought.

The soybean crisis in 04 can be said to be a turning point in the domestic soybean processing industry.

But many people don't know that in fact, the crisis is based on the U.S. soybean production forecast report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture this year.

Qi Zheng did not dare to say that the upcoming soybean crisis was well understood, but he was still impressed by some key nodes, and under the attention in advance, Jiang Ping laid out the soybean futures market according to Qi Zheng's prediction, and notified Qi Zheng as soon as the report came out.

Regarding soybeans, it is really difficult to say in words for our country.

As we all know, China is the birthplace of soybeans, and there are countless foods made from soybeans, each of which is a delicacy on the table.

In the early 19th century, with the development of navigation, soybeans, which originated in China, came to the American continent on the other side of the world on a giant ship and became a new local species.

However, in Europe and the United States at that time, soybeans had never been the main ingredient in making food. Europeans mainly use soybeans as feed, while the United States takes advantage of the nitrogen fixation properties of soybeans to plant soybeans to increase the organic nitrogen content of arable land, and the soybeans produced are directly sent to oil mills. However, due to the limitations of oil extraction technology at that time, the oil squeezed out had a grassy smell, so it did not enter the kitchen, but was turned into paint and brushed on the car.

Until the beginning of the twentieth century, there was a shortage of oil and fat in the United States, and soybeans, as an important oil crop, once again entered the attention of Americans.

The United States has not only begun to increase the introduction of soybeans to China, but has also asked its introducers to collect Chinese technology for making "cheese" (i.e., tofu) from soybeans. At this point, soybeans began to gain a foothold in the United States.

However, at this time, the United States still mainly relied on imports of soybeans from East Asia.

Until World War II, China has been the country with the highest soybean production in the world, accounting for about 90% of the world's soybean production.

During World War II, the outbreak of the Pacific War cut off the transportation lines from East Asia to the United States, and at the same time, during the war, the production of butter also encountered resistance, and margarine had to be used instead......

All of these factors have forced the United States to become self-reliant and produce its own soybeans.

In 1941, the U.S. Department of Agriculture began the first government soybean price support program to encourage farmers to produce soybeans. As a result, a year later, the U.S. soybean production surpassed that of China and became the world's largest soybean producer, which has remained so to this day. And by 1973, soybeans had become the number one cash crop in the United States, ahead of wheat and corn.

China's soybeans basically did not need to be imported before the mid-90s, but after that, soybean imports began to grow rapidly.

After soybean imports reached an all-time high of 13.94 million tons in 01, the state stepped in to protect domestic soybean production.

In June of that year, China promulgated and implemented the "Regulations on the Safety Management of Agricultural Genetically Modified Organisms", requiring imported agricultural raw materials to apply for a "safety certificate" from the Ministry of Agriculture.

And that's not all. Just last year, the Ministry of Agriculture announced the temporary measures taken for genetically modified agricultural products to export genetically modified organisms to foreign companies, on the basis of applying for a safety certificate, with the relevant institutions of their own country or a third country issued a valid safety assessment document, to apply to the Ministry of Agriculture for a "temporary certificate", and those who pass the examination can be issued a certificate within 30 days......

Objectively speaking, this set of serial punches is quite a powerful technical barrier.

Because the application for a safety certificate needs to be carried out after the goods arrive at our port, once it is not approved, the huge loss will be borne by the American supplier.

And in addition to setting up a "safety certificate" checkpoint, in March last year, the genetically modified soybeans of the Dalian Commodity Exchange were also suspended.

The two measures had an immediate effect, with soybean imports falling to 11.32 million tonnes last year.

But the United States is not easy to mess with.

The so-called has come and gone. In March this year, the United States suddenly imposed anti-dumping duties on China's cast iron pipe fittings, and the Sino-US trade war broke out. Three months later, an anti-dumping duty was imposed on saccharin......

Until the USDA released its monthly supply and demand report, the U.S. soybean production was reduced.

......

Qi Zheng's prediction based on memory was not wrong.

On August 25, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that the U.S. side may raise the issue of China's blocking of U.S. bean imports to the World Trade Organization, and claimed that China "unprovoked mid-end" U.S. bean imports on the grounds of phytosanitary reasons that lack scientific basis.

Under double pressure, after the US Secretary of Commerce visited China with the task of narrowing the trade deficit, two large procurement orders with political and political significance were thrown at the United States: one is a $6.7 billion contract for aircraft and automobiles, and the other is a contract for agricultural products and telecommunications, including $1.4 billion in soybeans.

After Qi Zheng saw this related report, he sighed.

In the end, it came to this.

Perhaps it doesn't seem important to policymakers whether to import more or less U.S. beans, especially if the move is for broader international political purposes.

However, the United States has a series of back-hands behind this agricultural product procurement, and the seemingly simple purchase of American beans has brought about a chain reaction between domestic soybean farmers and the soybean processing industry, which is absolutely unexpected by policymakers.

......