The Mid-Autumn Festival is approaching, in the major cities of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, citizens are pleasantly surprised to find that in the farmers' markets where they often buy vegetables, some pork stalls have played the brand of "Jiagu pork".

The brand of "Jiagu pork" is not the key, the key is that these stalls are not like before, one price a day, or even "one yuan a day" - although there is no price reduction, the price remains stable, and "the quantity is full".

These pork stalls are like a weather vane, it does not increase in price, and other stalls are suppressed and cannot increase the price.

At this time, the enormous influence of leading companies can be seen - small price fluctuations can indeed have a knock-on effect in their secondary market.

Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry's one-year pig slaughter may not be anything for the national market, but the release of production capacity in the two developed consumer circles is tantamount to a perfect tonic pill.

The pork tension in the two developed consumer circles has been alleviated, and the violent fluctuations in national pig prices have also been smoothed out a lot.

The data is the most revealing: the data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture show that under the influence of the concentrated release of production capacity of agriculture and animal husbandry in Jiagu, pig prices in South China and East China have quietly stabilized, and a small part is falling;

For ordinary people, it is a good thing not to expect pork prices to fall in the short term, as long as they do not continue to rise.

But for the upstream and downstream practitioners of pig farming, "mixed tastes" are not enough to describe their mood.

......

"The average price of pigs slaughtered is a full 1 yuan/kg lower than the market forecast, which also means that the profit of a slaughtered fat pig of more than 220 catties may shrink by more than 100 yuan, and 100 heads are less than 10,000 yuan...... Tsk tsk, no wonder yesterday a pig friend called me and shouted, he wanted to greet the ancestors of the Jiagu people. Liu Jintao, assistant to the president of Shuanghui Group, the boss of the pig slaughtering industry, entered the president's office and handed the document containing the average price of pigs slaughtered in various places to President Zhang Taixi.

"Hahaha, that's not bad news for us, isn't it?" Zhang Taixi smiled and took the file.

If the price of pigs is a game, the breeding end must want to increase the price, but the slaughtering company wants to reduce the price, because the price of pork is too high, the sales situation will be very unsatisfactory, and the slaughtering company has a limited amount of pigs, which is not in their interests.

"But then the news is bad news for us. Liu Jintao paused, and after the president's gaze shifted, he said: "Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry in South China and Central China, with the assistance of the local government, forced slaughtering enterprises to grasp the big and let go of the small, and accelerate the integration of the industry. ”

Zhang Taixi's gaze froze.

The domestic pig slaughtering industry is also scattered and has a strong regional monopoly nature. In short, local slaughterhouses instinctively crowd out foreign businesses. In this industry, there are not one or two places where physical altercations occur for the sake of exclusivity.

Shuanghui is said to be the leader of the domestic slaughtering industry, but its market share is less than 2%, and it is difficult to expand.

Jiagu is a typical industrial chain enterprise, multiplication farms, feed factories, and even veterinary drug factories and slaughterhouses are indispensable, and the risk of one less link will increase by one level: without multiplication farms, the supply and quality of breeding pigs will not be guaranteed; without feed factories, the cost will increase significantly; without veterinary drug factories, the health and food safety of pigs will not be guaranteed; without slaughterhouses, they will fall into passivity and lose the right to speak when the market is downturned.

In particular, the state has requirements for breeding enterprises, and pigs and their products are all transported "point-to-point", that is, pigs are directly transported from farms to slaughterhouses (farms).

Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry did not directly invest in slaughterhouses, but adopted the method of "joining" the slaughterhouses to supplement the whole industrial chain. If it is usual, it is not easy to convince the slaughterhouse to "join" the Jiagu system. After all, the requirements of the Jiagu system are notoriously high, and the better point of being included in the expansion map of leading enterprises is to protect the capital and not lose money, but the bad point is to lose the initiative.

However, under the pressure of non-plague, the qualification review and cleaning of pig slaughterhouses has been strengthened, a large number of slaughterhouses have been eliminated, and the local government will even take the initiative to help Jiagu screen and integrate slaughterhouses.

"Good guy, Jiagu is going to take the initiative to provoke the tide of shuffling!" Zhang Taixi closed the document after a glance and said awe-inspiringly.

"People are really domineering!" Liu Jintao had a helpless expression.

In the pig industry, it is basically peers who wash away peers. In other words, the money you make is lost by another wave of people. The owner of a large breeding enterprise said: What the market takes, the market will return to you.

Those who dare to take the initiative to provoke the reshuffle must have enough strength.

Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry are now holding down pig prices and not letting them rise, and how many of them are related to people's livelihood considerations, not to mention for the time being. But they, as businessmen, will only analyze from a business point of view.

"Kaya is first and foremost a player who wants to reduce the number of players who enter the market. Zhang Taixi raised his eyebrows: "In China, the most common is the price war: from huge profits to large profits, from large profits to small profits, and finally no one is profitable." But I heard that what Qi Dong of Jiagu hates the most is the price war. If pig prices continue to heat up and capital pursues profits, a large number of companies will follow the trend and enter the market, and real estate companies, car sellers, steel companies, and leather companies will all cross the border to raise pigs. And then there'......"

"Overcapacity. Liu Jintao continued: "After overcapacity, it is another bad battle, don't talk about Qi Dong, I also think it's disgusting to fight such a bad battle." ”

So the logic works. Don't think that capital will only rush forward, as long as the pig price shows a "stalemate" situation, many projects will be suspended. Therefore, a plan is just a plan, and as long as it is a plan, it will change in the face of variables.

"Then, Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry should also want to quickly return the funds. Zhang Taixi frowned and said: "In the reshuffle stage, the power of capital comes first. Even if Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is backed by Jiagu Group, resources are limited, and more funds are needed to concentrate a larger market share. ”

"Makes sense. The assistant said with a wry smile.

"The most important thing is that at this critical juncture, Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry allows people to see the strength of its leading industry reshuffle, and it is easier to string together independent and upstream and downstream links. Zhang Taixi said expressionlessly.

For example, if the slaughterhouse is under normal conditions, how can Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry integrate the slaughtering link into the industrial chain led by it! However, under the "extraordinary" state, people can supplement the entire industrial chain at the minimum cost.

It has strong capital strength, strong industrial chain integration ability, and favorable time and place...... With such a competitor, peers will have a headache.

Zhang Taixi knocked on the table and said: "Therefore, the key is whether Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry are 'in stock'." Well, the sales volume of Jiagu Agriculture and Animal Husbandry this month has increased by 100% compared with the same period, right, where did the production capacity burst out?"

Liu Jintao said neatly: "Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry took the initiative to press the bar in the panic throwing of the market in the early stage of the non-plague, and it has been postponed so far. ”

"Nice market judgment. Zhang Taixi praised it.

Generally, pigs grow to more than 200 catties, and they will not grow much more, and if they can't get their hands on, they will continue to invest in feed, but this process will not produce any benefits. Therefore, the pressure bar requires accurate market judgment, otherwise, it may be a two-way loss.

"The early pressure fence should not be enough to support the large volume of Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry, and it will take time to make up the column now, what other cards does Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry have?"

The assistant replied succinctly: "The export share is transferred to domestic sales." ”

Zhang Taixi blinked and understood.

But even from an outsider's point of view, he sighed: "It's a pity." ”

I heard that the price of Jiagu pork exported to South Korea and island countries is higher than that in China, and it is much easier to make money from these two companies than to make money from Chinese people.

But......

"Even if the export share is transferred to domestic sales, the volume is still insufficient. In order to suppress pig prices for a long time and continue to rise, either the non-plague can be controlled in a short period of time, or the Jiagu agriculture and animal husbandry supplement column quickly forms production capacity. Zhang Taixi frowned and guessed: "The former seems unlikely, and the latter, even with Jiagu's high efficiency, is very dangerous." ”

Liu Jintao also agreed: "Under the threat of non-plague, fattening pigs with higher efficiency to make up for the gap between supply and demand, and as long as a non-plague virus breaks through the defense line, it is likely that the previous efforts will be lost, and the rebound in all aspects will make Jiagu fall into passivity." ”

So, is Jiagu floating?

This point is not only the confusion of Shuanghui's senior management;

However, one thing is certain, following the impact of the non-plague epidemic, the industry has been stirred up again. Jiagu is born, the overlord of the pig industry is born, and if Jiagu fails, the industry will inevitably become more chaotic.

This is really the most drastic and rapid era of change in the pig industry!

......