"From the bottom of my heart, I am very eager for Brother Jiang to join my investment fund, and I also know that Brother Jiang still has many questions and concerns about working for me, so I hope that we can have an open and honest conversation to see if I have enough ability and sincerity to dispel the concerns in Brother Jiang's heart. Qi Zheng said sincerely.

Jiang Ping listened to Qi Zheng's words, nodded, pondered for a moment and said: "Frankly speaking, if it weren't for the disappointment of the current working environment, I wouldn't have considered jumping into a new fund at all, I have seen too much dark side on Wall Street, and sometimes I even want to quit the rivers and lakes and return to China for development, and at the same time be able to take care of my parents nearby." ”

"For specific business operations, I am a layman, and through communication, I also know that Xiao Qi is a very thoughtful person. As an investor, vision is very important, limited to the special situation in China, I don't want my background working at Lehman Brothers to interfere with your judgment, I hope that we can both have a consistent judgment and recognition of the future of the financial trend. ”

Qi Zheng nodded frequently, this is a big test for himself, even if Wang Ba is against mung beans after the test, the leader of the investment fund is very likely to solve it, and even if Su Fang maneuvers around in the middle of the test, the possibility of breaking up in one shot and two will be infinite.

Thinking about it from another angle, Qi Zheng also understands Jiang Ping very well. Taking a huge risk in your career to join a new fund with no background, it would be bad if you met an investor who was half-bottle dangling again - a portfolio is not built overnight, and patience and vision are essential qualities for investors.

Of course, it doesn't mean that without Jiang Ping's joining, Qi Zheng's investment fund will not be able to operate, and Su Fang next to him is still there.

However, the big bull in the future is still a calf, if you directly help him to the position, you can imagine how much Su Fang, who has no trading experience, will suffer in order to get real growth?

As for finding other top traders? I really thought I was buying Chinese cabbage, and I could throw one if I picked one.

Not to mention that other traders will also have Jiang Ping's concerns, just Qi Zheng doesn't know anything about them, and the risk is not small, how can Jiang Ping, who knows that his future career is trustworthy, is easy to use?

Therefore, Qi Zheng sincerely hopes to be recognized by Jiang Ping and prompt him to join.

......

Jiang Ping thought for a while and continued: "Macro investment involves too many industries, so let's limit ourselves to one industry for the time being. I work at Lehman Brothers, and some time ago the Federal Reserve continued to cut interest rates, and Lehman Brothers planned to launch a new financial derivative for mortgage securitization - Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) ......"

Qi Zheng listened to Jiang Ping's introduction to the idea and ins and outs of Lehman Brothers' mortgage CDO plan, and let out a long sigh in his heart.

Although Qi Zheng has a better understanding of the future financial macro trend, he is limited to the price trend of some commodities. The knowledge of other financial products can only be described as general.

As for the reasons for the subprime mortgage crisis caused by the collapse of Lehman, it has been analyzed in later generations, and Qi Zheng does not need to worry about this.

The question is what kind of attitude Jiang Ping has towards the mortgage CDO launched by Lehman Brothers, whether it is for support or conditional opposition, and no matter which of these two items is not close to the reality that he wants to say and originates from the future.

As soon as the mortgage securitization plan came out in the United States, the financial market made a lot of money, and the people spent less money to realize the "American dream" of living in a big house early.

“...... Within Lehman Brothers, some hailed the product as one of the great financial inventions of the 21st century. So, Xiao Qi, what do you think of this product?" Jiang Ping asked.

Qi Zheng drank the coffee in his hand, looked up at Jiang Ping and Su Fang, Jiang Ping had no expression, but Su Fang frowned slightly.

After thinking about it for a long time, Qi Zheng still decided to tell the truth.

"After listening to Brother Jiang, as far as my personal understanding of finance is concerned, the product of housing loan securities CDO itself can be called a significant financial innovation, and from the current environment, it can be called killing two birds with one stone......" Qi Zhengxian casually copied a sycophant article before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the future.

"But ......" Qi Zheng began to turn around.

As the Western proverb goes, nothing is perfect in this world except God. Qi Zheng paused.

"From my personal judgment of the future situation, Lehman is basically dying on his own. ”

"I'm not a student of finance, so I'll extrapolate the development of the situation in the vernacular to support my opinion. ”

"Last year, in order to reduce the impact of the dot-com bubble on the U.S. economy, the federal government pressured banks to cut interest rates sharply, and the capital liquidity in the market increased significantly. ”

"When there is more liquid capital, there will be investment and consumption, both of which will affect the growth of house prices. ”

"Home prices in the U.S. are growing at a rapid rate, and many people with low incomes or bad credit histories are unable to get a mortgage to buy a house because of high housing prices. Interest rates in the market are incredibly low compared to the fast-growing housing prices, so lending more is not a way for banks to increase their income. As a result, a large number of subprime loans were issued. ”

"We all know that the simple understanding of subprime lending is that banks lend to people with bad credit. Of course, such a risk is great, but banks are not stupid, they have set up a gradient repayment model: in previous years, only need to pay a loan interest rate of about 1.5% per year, but after a few years, the loan rate will quickly increase to a high level to compensate for the low loan interest rate in previous years. ”

"It's based on their belief that house prices are not going to fall. Then, after a lender accepts the loan, the value of the house as collateral will grow more over time, so if the borrower defaults on the high interest rate after a few years, the bank only needs to repossess the house as collateral and then sell it to cover the loss and even make a profit. ”

"What a crazy time, a person who barely survives with a very low wage, walks into a mortgage company in the morning, does not need to provide a lot of guarantees, and can get a 100% loan to buy a house in the afternoon. ”

In order to make more money, the bank sells mortgage collateralized bonds to investment banks, which then package mortgages and credit loans, student loans, car purchase loans, commercial loans, etc. into secured debt obligations (CDOs). Among them, those with low risk and low return are sold to financial institutions such as insurance companies, and those with high risk and high return are sold to hedge funds. ”

"It looks like everything is good, but it's all built on one foundation: the average home buyer has to pay their mortgage on time. ”

"Then here's the problem, in a few years, many subprime loans will expire in low interest rates, and lenders will face the next high loan repayment amounts. The first borrowers will emerge with their properties confiscated because they are unable to repay their loans. Don't say it's impossible, just those low-income people who get loans now, what will they use to repay the high repayments at that time?"

"The next thing is interesting, if the loan is not repaid, the bank will naturally repossess the house and put the confiscated mortgaged property on the market to sell it to make up for the loss. As a result, there are a large number of houses on the market that need to be sold, and the large supply and insufficient demand have led to a decline in housing prices. ”

"And because of the drop in housing prices, many people who are new to the mortgage suddenly find that my house is not worth anything now, why should I pay a loan amount that is higher than the value of my current house? So, they refused to pay the loan, and the second wave of loan defaults appeared. This vicious circle has led to a great crisis in the payment of subprime loans, and has also led to a sharp drop in housing prices. ”

"It's even more fun at this point, because mortgage-backed bonds aren't worth anything, CDOs are even less valuable, and you can imagine the fate of companies that invest in CDO products, including Lehman Brothers. ”

"According to the timeline, I expect that in the second half of '06, there will be signs of a bad situation. At that point, a crisis slowly emerged. ”

"Of course, these are my opinions, and it may be difficult to get into the elegant hall, just listen to it. Qi Zheng finally concluded with a smile.

......

Qi Zheng spoke freely for nearly half an hour, combined with some facts that really happened in his previous life, and analyzed Lehman Brothers' mortgage financial derivatives plan thoroughly from the inside out.

After listening to Qi Zheng, Jiang Ping subconsciously shook his head, and was silent for a long time before saying: "Xiao Qi, your point of view is self-contained, where is the opinion, Lehman's mortgage financial derivatives plan has been proposed for nearly a year, and among the people I have contacted, you are the second person who has a pessimistic attitude towards this plan." ”

Looking at Qi Zheng and Su Fang's curious eyes, Jiang Ping said with some feeling: "That's right, the first one to be pessimistic is me." But I'm just arguing that the risk is too high from the product side. Today, I listened to Xiao Qi's more comprehensive explanation, which makes people have to be convinced, it seems that Lehman Brothers' choice this time is really unpredictable. ”

Su interjected: "Is there no one on Wall Street who recognizes the risks?

Qi Zheng smiled meaningfully, "How is it possible, everyone actually knows that it is not safe, but no one can refuse the huge benefits in it, it can be said that the fate of a giant like Lehman Brothers will depend on their greed." As for the regulators, uh, the best minds are under the control of Wall Street, and it's a real question of whether they can find the loopholes. ”

Jiang Ping also added, "Another reason is that most people don't think house prices will fall. Bankers, carried away by money and huge gains, have almost closed their eyes to mortgage mortgages in order to sell more mortgage bonds. As for the level of greed of the investment banks, I can only say that in order to make a 300% profit, they can really sell the ropes that hang themselves with their own hands. ”

Su Fang said tentatively: "Brother Jiang can completely remind Lehman Brothers to pay attention to risk avoidance." ”

Jiang Ping smiled bitterly, "It's difficult, it's hard to say." ”

Qi Zheng smiled secretly in his heart when he heard this, of course this is difficult.

Although the United States is hailed by many as the hope of mankind, it is a pity that "nothing on this planet is perfect" as Qi Zheng said.

Although Lao Mei talks about fairness and democracy and dresses herself up as a savior, it is not the case at all in real life.

Again, for Chinese Americans, that invisible ceiling has always existed.

Take Jiang Ping's experience as an example.

At the beginning of joining the company, Jiang Ping was assigned to the Latin American foreign exchange trading department with the worst performance in the company.

From 1995 to the present, the world's famous economic crises have come one after another. However, Jiang Ping's investment performance has been more than doubled by three or four percent, and he has become one of the traders with the largest contribution from Lehman.

But the reward that this "fortune boy" received was not proportional to his efforts.

According to Wall Street rules, fund managers generally get 10 to 15 percent of their performance, but Jiang Ping's share is less than one-third of that percentage, so it's no wonder that Jiang Ping says the current working environment is disappointing for him.

......