Hearing the news that the domestic soybean purchasing group had increased soybean procurement, Jiang Ping couldn't help but smile bitterly, "This is rushing to be the big boss!"

Qi Zheng and Su Fang are also related. Look.Mao.Line.Chinese.Text.Net

In fact, Jiagu has not found a way to contact some representatives of domestic soybean purchasing groups, including Li Guangfu, for them to analyze the data within the hedge fund and the soybean production forecast for reference.

But apparently, they didn't take it seriously at all.

"We did our best. In fact, this is not surprising, on the one hand, there is the authoritative data of the United States Department of Agriculture, and on the other hand, the analysis of small funds that have popped up out of nowhere, even if they are compatriots, they will definitely choose to believe the former, right?" Su Fang said helplessly.

That's the reason, but Qi Zheng scoffs at the USDA's so-called "authoritative" data.

"But the fact is that there are always some very interesting patterns in the rise and fall of the CBOT soybean futures price and the spot price in the soybean international trade market, which is used as a pricing reference. ”

"Before the U.S. soybean harvest season arrives, there will be 'bullish' news in the market, so that U.S. soybeans buy a good price, and after the U.S. soybean sales season, South American soybeans enter the peak sales season, and there is often 'bad' news in the market, and the price is lower, resulting in the impact of South American soybean sales. ”

"In the international soybean market, the most relied on reference news is the data released by the United States Department of Agriculture, including soybean production areas, production and demand from all parties. If you want to say that the USDA is innocent in it, believe it or not, I don't believe it anyway. Qi Zheng said sarcastically.

Compared with Qi Zheng's extremism, Su Fang seems more rational, "In the past few decades, the information regularly released by the United States Department of Agriculture has been an important reference for the US domestic exchange and major importers around the world, and its authority is globally recognized, and truth is the primary factor of authority." On the contrary, I feel that it is obvious that the US Department of Agriculture cannot use its authority as a price in exchange for immediate benefits. ”

He further illustrated that the data were not predicted by the USDA itself, but were done by outsiders who were experts, not officials.

Moreover, there can be no economic or commercial connection between these people and the predicted results. There are many and scientific methods used in forecasting, such as the use of satellite telemetry and manual statistics to count the production area, zoning, yield and harvest of soybeans. Until the forecast report is formalized, they are in a closed environment and cannot communicate with anyone outside.

"The purpose of these regulations is to ensure that the forecasting process is fair, objective and transparent. "Su Fang has also studied in depth.

Qi Zheng shook his head and said, "On the contrary, I think that as long as it is a human being, it is easy to be affected. Although the U.S. Department of Agriculture appears to be fair and objective, those so-called foreign experts are actually more susceptible to the influence of American multinational capital that controls the soybean industry chain, and quietly manipulate soybean prices. ”

"Otherwise, South America grows soybeans, the United States sells soybeans, and China buys soybeans, but why is it that only the United States is the biggest or even the only winner? ”

To put it vulgarly, the most successful thing about the United States is that it has both become a and successfully set up a torii.

Qi Zheng is not blindly extreme, he puts the facts and reasons, and refutes Su Fang speechlessly.

Jiang Ping remained sober, "However, from the perspective of international market competition, the US Department of Agriculture's practice is actually beyond reproach. Because as a government, isn't it natural to use the rules of the market game to protect its own interests?"

Now it was Qi Zheng's turn to be speechless.

Among the three people present, Jiang Ping is undoubtedly the one who has the most profound understanding of the futures market.

"From the point of view of accountability, who predicts who is responsible. Therefore, the USDA only publishes it, and has no direct responsibility for whether it is accurate or not, and can avoid suspicion of human manipulation. It's actually a chicken thief. ”

"In fact, in my opinion, the surge in soybean prices this time is the result of international speculative funds hyping up the 'China factor' on the CBOT, and the data released by the US Department of Agriculture, whether distorted or not, has played a role in contributing to this. ”

This analysis convinced both Qi Zheng and Su Fang.

One of the biggest characteristics of the futures market is that it has an amplifying effect on the price change factors in the spot market, which can be amplified several times or even dozens of times.

Therefore, the rapid growth of soybean processing capacity and soybean demand in China in recent years has made "Chinese buyers" an important factor in the international futures market, and has been used and exerted to the extreme by international speculators.

Ahem, I have to say here that although there is no active speculation, in fact, the "assassin" hedge fund that is "long" on soybean futures also plays the same role.

The mall is the battlefield, and trade is the international war in peacetime. "Soldiers do not tire of deceit" is used in ancient and modern times, both at home and abroad, and striving for and protecting one's own interests within the legal scope is the rule of the game in the market.

The main problem is that in the international trade of soybeans, although our country has become the world's largest importer in recent years, and is also the largest buyer of the United States, it is still a young participant in the big arena of international trade, and is not familiar with the rules of international trade as a whole, especially how to use the rules of the game to protect itself.

"Paying tuition fees at a young age is unavoidable for both individuals and countries. Jiang Ping, who has a lot of experience, has a deep understanding of this.

Qi Zheng could only say about this, "I'm afraid that I'm not just paying tuition, but even losing my life......"

In a different time and space, the "soybean crisis" occurred next, China's soybean processing industry lost money, the soybean crushing industry fell across the board, and domestic soybean processing enterprises were hunted by foreign capital......

The Americans taught us a lesson in the soybean trade, and we paid for the entire domestic market.

They are all smart people, although they can't "see" the follow-up chain reaction as straightforwardly as Qi Zheng, but Jiang Ping and Su Fang both have some predictions about the bleak future of the domestic soybean processing industry, and at that time, they don't believe that multinational capital will be kind enough to let go of the domestic "fat sheep".

"The general trend is irreversible, what we can do is to find more compensation in the U.S. futures market, and some losses can be recovered. Jiang Ping could only comfort from a good direction.

Hedge funds are indeed making money every day.

On the 22nd, a domestic soybean purchasing group that threw out a huge number of orders set off to return to China, and the waves brought by it have just begun to be fed back in the futures market.

On the 23rd, soybean prices continued to rise until the last day of 03, when the U.S. market closed at 789 cents bushels, just over ten days, up about 12 from before the contract.

......