During the Spring Festival in 04, some people were happy and some were sad.

Soybean prices are still red, and the asset scale of Qi Zheng's hedge fund is naturally rising, but domestic soybean buyers are worried.

Generally speaking, ordinary buyers and sellers do not worry about the price increase after signing the contract, because the price increase does not mean that the price at the time of signing the contract is low?

But international soybean trade, or commodity trade, is priced differently.

The pricing method of international soybeans is the futures price plus the basis, also known as the premium.

The basis is the difference between the price of the commodity spot market and the futures market, and this difference is a positive number is a premium, and vice versa.

To put it bluntly, it is the transportation fee and holding cost of the two markets where the buyer and seller are located, and this holding cost includes storage costs, interest, insurance premiums, etc.

The signing of the contract between the two parties is to buy the basis, that is, only the premium is determined, but the futures price is uncertain, but within the delivery period determined by the contract, the buyer selects the futures price of a date within the period agreed by both parties as the futures price in the contract.

In this way, seeing that the agreed deadline has arrived, domestic soybean buyers are of course eager for futures prices to plummet, even if the status quo is maintained.

But heaven does not grant people's wishes.

In other words, international speculative funds that speculate on futures prices behind the scenes will not fulfill the wishes of buyers.

Li Guangfu of Beinong Bean Industry watched the price of soybeans soar like a hormone, and the Chinese New Year was unbearable.

It wasn't until the end of the year that soybean prices finally hit an all-time high of 1,064 cents bushels, up nearly 50 percent from when the contract was signed.

Li Guangfu looked back at the price he signed, the futures price plus the basis, converted to 4,100 yuan tons, converted to 1,078 cents bushels, which is undoubtedly quite a high price. Look at 'Mao's line, Chinese, and net

But Li Guangfu is even a little proud, because his price in the purchasing group is still relatively low - a little calculation will know, according to the purchase of 2.5 million tons of 1.4 billion US dollars, the unit price is equivalent to 4,635 yuan tons.

He silently comforted himself, the price is high, it is high. As the tide rises, the price of soybeans rises, and the prices of soybean oil and by-product soybean meal will also rise simultaneously.

The purchase price is a little higher, that is, it makes a little less.

At the thought of this, he was relieved, and a smile appeared on his face again.

In fact, Li Guangfu also knows that although the trade method of buying the basis of soybeans seems to be beneficial to buyers like himself, there is actually great uncertainty. Because when choosing a futures price, the buyer must judge the future price trend, and the judgment may be wrong.

The reason why this trading method is internationally accepted is because it can hedge risks.

The general practice is to sign the contract based on a certain contract on the commodity exchange, plus or minus how much money is signed, and the remaining risk is hedged in the futures market, such as spot long, futures short, so that the buyer locks in the basis, and the futures rise and fall does not have much impact on him.

It's a pity, not to mention that Li Guangfu is not familiar with the futures thing, even if he trades on the domestic futures exchange, it is just to buy goods, well, it is no different from buying goods from farmers.

Besides, even if he wants to hedge through futures, overseas futures can't do it.

Speaking of this, it involves the qualification of domestic enterprises to carry out overseas futures hedging business.

Because 94 years ago, overseas futures trading was not restricted, but due to poor supervision, resulting in the loss of a large amount of foreign exchange and state-owned assets, the state simply cut corners and stopped the overseas futures business of all futures brokerage institutions, and then only state-owned enterprises could be approved to carry out overseas futures hedging business, but even state-owned enterprises, it is extremely difficult to obtain approval.

In fact, even in another 10 years, the strictness of domestic restrictions on overseas futures trading is beyond imagination.

The difficulty of supervision has been greatly reduced, but the ability of enterprises to use overseas futures to prevent risks has also been greatly reduced.

Li Guangfu's Beinong Bean Industry is also unable to hedge on the Chicago Board of Trade because of its lack of qualifications, and last year the domestic exchange also canceled the varieties of imported soybeans, so in the international soybean market, which is traded at futures prices, domestic enterprises such as Beinong Bean are basically in a state of "naked war".

Not everyone can start a new business abroad like Qi Zheng, this is not only a problem of funding, but the most important thing is the problem of talent.

Jiang Ping's hedge fund began to sell its futures contracts to close their positions during the Chinese New Year, when the price of soybeans just hit 1,000 cents bushels, and began to "short" soybean futures with a backhand.

On the one hand, there is a reminder from Qi Zheng's memory, and on the other hand, Jiang Ping also feels that the price is almost at the peak, because the US soybean spot has been issued, and the international speculative forces are about to withdraw, so he judges that the price of soybean futures is about to fall.

But on the other hand, Li Guangfu doesn't think so.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's lowered soybean production forecast, when the U.S. soybean is received, soybean futures prices are expected to continue to rise, compared with the current purchase price, they still make money.

In any case, it will not be lower than the current price.

......

U.S. soybeans have been shipped to China one after another, and buyers such as Li Guangfu are just preparing to receive them.

The bad news came at the same time.

USDA reports "unexpected" bumper soybean harvest in the United States......

As soon as the news broke, the price of soybean futures in Chicago plummeted.

It's a bolt from the blue.

Li Guangfu, who received the news, straightened his eyes.

Why is there such a big discrepancy between the actual output and the actual output? A de facto increase in production is predicted to be a decrease in production?

He really wanted to point at the USDA and scold, you deliberately faked it, right?

But the top priority is not to scold ~ mother, but ...... Ya, what else can you do besides scolding ~ mother?

In a short period of time, the price of soybean futures fell back to the 700-cent bushels it was before the contract, and even the avalanche did not collapse so quickly.

And there is no end in sight to this, and it has been "falling and falling" endlessly.

As a ripple effect, soybean oil prices also began to fall, as did soybean meal prices.

Li Guangfu wanted to cry without tears.

The purchase contract signed before has become a noose around his neck, and he can't struggle anymore.

How serious is this?

He had to pay for the goods at the highest price he chose, but in turn had to sell soybean oil and soybean meal at the falling price. To put it simply, the 2.5 million tons of soybeans purchased by the domestic soybean purchasing group at a price of more than 4,000 yuan will lose at least 2,000 yuan for every ton processed......

a ball!