Chapter 619: Clearance at the End of the Year (1)
Liugong Machinery's share price is also getting lower and lower, following a sharp drop of 6.52% in the previous trading day, it fell by 1.74% today, closing at 10.14 yuan.
This price hit its lowest close since November 11.
Judging from its chart, the pullback of the original division of wave 4 at this time is not only a problem of overlapping with the starting point of wave 2, but that wave 4 has completely engulfed wave 2.
Seeing that there is no support for the average below the stock price, the next most likely support position is the lowest price of 7.66 yuan on November 7, Zhang Shaohui regretted it in his heart, he regretted that he did not break through the 60 moving average on December 8 on the day when the stock price broke through the 60 moving average, and immediately decided to sell the stock at 12.78 yuan, this hesitation, the stock price fell by 2.5 yuan.
This alone has made him regret that he can't sleep at night, but now he is facing a more serious problem in front of him, that is, seeing that the price of this stock will move closer to the previous low of 7.66 yuan, should he sell it quickly?
If your judgment is correct, there is still room for 2.5 yuan to fall from the current position to 7.66 yuan.
The previous hesitation had already allowed me to miss the $2.5 spread, and now I can't afford to repeat the same mistake.
Zhang Shaohui secretly made up his mind that he must find an opportunity to sell this stock tomorrow.
Although the trend of the market index is very similar to the trend of Liugong Machinery, the current point of the original division of the fourth wave has overlapped with the end of the second wave, the previous first wave, the second wave, the third wave and the fourth wave have been completely overthrown, but the trend of Jingxi Coal stock price has given Li Xin a lot of confidence.
On November 7, the day the market started, the lowest point of Jingxi Coal Industry was 6.98 yuan, and it rose to 10.51 yuan on November 17, just 10 days later.
If this wave of rally is the first wave of this stock, then the pullback from $10.51 on November 17 to $8.52 on December 2 should be the second wave.
Since December 2, the stock has continued to rise from a low of $8.52, hitting two recent highs of $13.10 and $13.95 on December 11 and December 19, respectively.
Although the closing price of the stock on December 24 was 12.29 yuan, down 1.66 yuan from 13.95 yuan three trading days ago, the current price is still up 44.3% from the low of 8.52 yuan on December 2.
From December 2nd to today, the stock has risen so sharply that it is no problem to say that December 2nd is the starting point of the third wave of this stock, and it is no problem that the stock is still running in the main rising wave of the third wave.
When Li Xin bought this stock with a heavy position, he went for its unique investment value, that is, because of the unique nature of this stock, it was one of the leading stocks in the bull market last year.
Now its stock price trend is once again far ahead of the market, which shows that its original judgment on this stock and the market trend is basically right. This stock has now completely replaced Liugong Machinery as the leading stock to lead the market, and as long as its trend continues to be strong, the entire market is worth looking forward to. The only thing that needs to be reviewed and adjusted now is how to divide the future waves of the market.
Although it can also be light on the large market and heavy stocks, Li Xin believes from the bottom of his heart that the rise of this bull market will be very large, and in such a large rise process, the Elliott wave theory is very useful. Just like last year's bull market and this year's bear market, the Elliott Wave Theory can be used to accurately divide the five waves of a bull market and the five waves of a bear market.
He firmly believes that the first wave of the bull market starts from the historic moment of November 7th, and the question now is where exactly does this first wave end? If the first wave cannot be defined, the second, third, fourth and fifth waves will be completely impossible.
Just as Li Xin was sitting in front of the computer and meditating, his mobile phone rang.
"Li Xin? I'm the old Yang of the bank. ”
"Oh, it's President Yang, what's the matter?"
"Tonight we will hold a Christmas Eve cocktail party, invite some VIP customers of our line to come over and have a good time, are you interested, come and play together?"
"Hehe, Governor Yang, you are so interested, why do you have such a Western festival from time to time?"
"Well, I don't really have much interest in this kind of festival, but the people below are ready to go and want me to attend, and I have to go. Why don't you come and play too?"
"Thank you so much, I understand it, it's really not okay today, there are other arrangements. ”
"Okay, then next time. Eh, are you paying attention to the recent copper price?"
"No, what happened to the price of copper?"
"Didn't we talk about it last time? The two falling limits on December 4 and 5 directly dragged the copper price from a position close to 28,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan in one fell swoop. Didn't you say that the price had fallen to the position of four or five years ago, and there wouldn't be much room for it to fall? But since December 16th, the copper price has fallen again, and last Thursday, December 18th, the copper price fell by 1,640 yuan, a decline of 6.69%, directly on the falling limit. This time, the price of copper has been directly hit from more than 25,000 yuan to 22,000 yuan. Today's lowest price is already $22,400. Look at the integer threshold of 20,000 yuan like this, it won't be able to hold it for a long time, what's going on?"
Inviting Li Xin to the bank's Christmas Eve party was just an excuse, and what Governor Yang really wanted to talk to Li Xin about was the trend of copper prices.
A month ago, when the copper price was still above 30,000 yuan, he thought that the price was too low, and he could not fully recover the loan after taking the assets mortgaged by the Southern Group in the hands of the bank to auction, so when Li Xin was bullish on the copper price at that time, he also felt that Li Xin's point of view was very reasonable, so he postponed the auction again and again, and wanted to sell these assets after the price rose up.
Later, the Aluminum Group intervened, expressing confidence in merging the Southern Group and fully taking over the claims and debts of the Southern Group, which made President Yang see the best result.
If the aluminum group can successfully merge with the southern group, it will save too much trouble, and in the future, you don't have to worry about whether the copper price will rise or fall, and you don't have to worry about whether there is a difference between the funds recovered after the auction and the loan, and all the loans will be repaid by the aluminum group in the future.
However, as copper prices continued to fall, there was gradually no news from the aluminum group, which made President Yang panic again.
If the merger of the Aluminum Group into the Southern Group is completely yellow, and the price of copper continues to fall, then all their wishful thinking will be in vain.
When the copper price was above 30,000 yuan, all these assets were auctioned off and the loan could not be fully repaid, and now the copper price has fallen to around 20,000 yuan, and there is a trend of continuing to fall, in this case, the difference between the auction of these assets and the loan of the Southern Group is even greater.
At this time, Governor Yang gradually realized that Li Xin's firm bullish view on copper prices seemed to have some problems, but he couldn't find other more reliable people to consult this issue in his field of vision, so after weighing left and right, he still decided to call Li Xin to hear what he thought about the trend of copper prices now.
"Really, why did the price of copper fall so low?" Li Xin was taken aback when he heard this, he never dreamed that the price of copper in futures would fall to such a low position. Compared with the price when he closed the short order, the current copper price is almost nearly 10,000 yuan lower. What's going on?
He clearly remembered that he had seen the stock price trend of Western Copper yesterday. The stock's low on November 7 was $6.81, but as the broader market rose, its share price hit a high of $11.42 on December 11. In just one month and four days, the stock has risen by about 67.7%. This kind of increase is not inferior to the most optimistic Jingxi coal industry, once again showing that at the beginning of last year's big bull market, Jingxi coal industry and western copper industry as the leading stocks led the market to the signs of the upward rush, the characteristics of coal flying color dance gradually revealed.
Although the share price of Western Copper has returned to the position of 8.93 yuan with the decline of the broader market index in recent days, it is still a sharp increase compared with the price of 6.81 yuan on November 7.
But why has the stock prices of the non-ferrous metals and coal industries risen so much, but the price of copper has fallen again and again? You must know that copper is the most important representative of non-ferrous metals, and its price cannot rise, and the prices of other non-ferrous metals are unlikely to rise.
Last year's bull market occurred after copper prices skyrocketed four or five times, which Li Xin was very impressed. Looking back now, the market has been getting lower and lower recently, and it has fallen below the support of the 60 moving average, is this related to the continuous decline in copper prices? Now that the price of non-ferrous metals is so low, will the bull market that I expect will come?
Governor Yang sighed: "Isn't it just that it has fallen so low? Now it is difficult to deal with these assets mortgaged by the Southern Group in my hands, so sell them now, there is no way to pay off my loan, but if you don't sell them, you can expect its price to rise and it is far away, and there is no hope at all." ”
Governor Yang's words interrupted Li Xin's contemplation, and also reminded him of what Xia Xiaona said that the current aluminum group had plans to take over the Southern Group, so he said: "It is really unimaginable that the price of copper has fallen so low, not to mention in Jiangnan Province, but also in the whole country, I estimate that there are no more than 5 people who can see this in advance." ”