Li Xin is very confident about this. Because when the copper price was above 60,000 yuan, he was bearish, but at that time, in his field of vision, including Jin Changxing, Xue Chenzhi and other bigwigs in the non-ferrous metal industry, they all felt that the copper price below 60,000 yuan was impossible.

But the next fact is that the price of copper continued to plummet, and Li Xin sold a short position of more than 60,000 yuan and closed the position at about 30,000 yuan to obtain a huge profit. The reason why he closed his position at the line of 30,000 yuan is that he believes that the possibility of copper prices falling below 30,000 yuan is very small.

But now the copper price has not only fallen below the 30,000 yuan mark to around 22,000 yuan, but also is about to fall below the integer mark of 20,000 yuan. Even Li Xin didn't expect such a situation, how many other people could see this?

Li Xin suddenly realized that just as the copper price was above 60,000 yuan, it was a huge opportunity to short, and now the copper price has fallen to the floor of 22,000 yuan, which may be another rare long opportunity in history.

Before Li Xin could finish speaking, Governor Yang interrupted him and asked, "But what can this be? For me, the continuous decline in copper prices means that the loan cannot be fully recovered." ”

Li Xin said: "I mean that such a sharp drop in copper prices is indeed a crisis for non-ferrous metal companies like the Southern Group. But the word crisis is very interesting, and when there is danger, there is organic, and this is almost the best example of dialectical unity. If you think about it, it is because the price of copper has fallen so sharply that the Southern Group, a company that was prosperous a few years ago, has now reached the point where it is about to be auctioned off bankruptcy. But think about it from another angle, isn't it a godsend for those enterprises that wanted to enter the non-ferrous metal industry a few years ago? Take the Southern Group as an example, three years ago, how much did any enterprise need to spend if it wanted to acquire the Southern Group? But now that the price of copper has fallen to this point, it may only take 1/5~1/6 of the purchase price a few years ago to pocket this enterprise, isn't it a very cost-effective thing?

"To tell you the truth, the Aluminum Group has talked to us and the Southern Group a few times before, and they want to buy the Southern Group, but there is no news recently, and I estimate that the continuous decline in copper prices is also a reason. At this time, President Yang no longer dared to hide the fact that Li Xin Aluminum Group was interested in acquiring the Southern Group, because he knew that although Li Xin resigned from the Southern Group and left, he was inextricably linked with the Southern Group, and it was impossible for such news not to reach Li Xin's ears.

"Well, I'm sure someone will notice this opportunity. In all fairness, these assets of the Southern Group are still good, and if you buy them now, there will be huge profit margins for copper prices to rise in the future. Especially at the current copper price fall to such a position, the investment value of their assets is even more prominent, and no one sees this is a very abnormal thing. I don't have the money and I don't have the ability to run the business, and if I have the money and the ability to run the business, I want to buy it. If you simply compare the value of the assets of the Southern Group four or five years ago with the value of the assets now, you will know that you can make a lot of money by taking it over now and selling it in a year or two. ”

"You have a point, but the problem is that I can't wait that long. Besides, after several rounds of contact with us, there has been no response from the aluminum group, which shows that the price of copper and the asset value of the Southern Group will shrink significantly?"

If it weren't for President Yang's sentence "The problem is that I can't wait that long" reminded Li Xin that the other party is a bank president, and the other party is concerned about recovering the loan as soon as possible, rather than running the Southern Group for a long time, Li Xin almost blurted out the truth that he told Zhang Shaohui that if he sees the long-term trend, he should not care too much about short-term fluctuations.

He stopped the sentence that had already reached his lips, thought about it, and said to Governor Yang: "This should be said, copper prices are bullish for a long time, but it is really difficult to judge where it will continue to fall in the short term and when it will start to rise." This year's situation is extremely special, and the copper price must have fallen to this position in the bottom area, otherwise I would not have closed the short order in my hand at about 30,000 yuan as soon as possible. However, because of such an extreme situation this year, a large enterprise like the Southern Group has now reached such a crisis point, and it is conceivable what the situation of other small enterprises in the industry will be. Copper prices have not been able to stop the downward trend so far, could it be such a situation: that is, now that the end of the year is approaching, the enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry have no money in their hands, so they can only sell their products at low prices according to the market price to recoup funds? I remember that in the past few years, the Southern Group has to rush to a wave of sales at the end of the year, and a large amount of funds have been recovered, in order to make the annual report a little better and more beautiful before the end of the year. This is still on the basis of the very lucrative profit per ton of copper in the past, and now that the price of copper has fallen to such a position, companies in the non-ferrous metal industry may sell goods at low prices before the end of the year may also be an important reason why the current copper price cannot be stopped. Of course, this is my own personal speculation, I have never managed an enterprise, I have no experience in this area, and what will the decision-makers of this type of enterprise think at this time, President Yang, you might as well ask Xue Chenzhi about them. As for the point that you said that the aluminum group has been in contact with you and the Southern Group for a few rounds and there is no news, I think they see that copper prices are still falling, so they want to wait and see and strive for better conditions. They all say that if you buy up, you won't buy down, and as long as the price of copper rises in the future, they will definitely talk to you. ”

"What you say makes sense, so I'll wait and see. Now there is less than a week until the end of the year, anyway, this hot potato is already in the hands of now, and it can't be thrown away to others. If copper prices continue to fall in January next year, it will be troublesome. ”

"It's been until now, and it's not bad for this month, right?" Li Xin is not fooling President Yang with his words, because for the stocks he holds, he also feels that the end of this year may be a pass, and whether the trend of these stocks is good or bad next year may be clear after New Year's Day.

Governor Yang said: "That's the only way. Can't you come over in the evening? We haven't seen each other after talking so much, when will we make an appointment to meet? ”

"If there's something going on today, I'm not going. Another day, I'll visit you at your bank another day. ”

"Okay. ”

While Li Xin and President Yang were chatting on the phone, Wang Minghui, Wang Haoqiang and Zhang Shaohui sat on the side and listened quietly.

As soon as Li Xin put down the phone, Wang Minghui asked: "Does the Aluminum Group want to merge with the Southern Group?"

"It seems that there is such an intention. ”

"Is it done?"

"It shouldn't be yet, it's very complicated to buy a business, and it's common to toss for months or even more than half a year before it gets results. ”

"That's right. Now, as we approach the end of the year, and there are only a few days left before the last trading day of the year, will companies that invest in the stock market also sell their stocks and replace them with cash, and then buy their stocks back after New Year's Day?

Li Xin said: "Well, yes, it's very likely. If this is also the case in the stock market, then the current decline makes sense, and the possibility of the broader market rising after New Year's Day is even greater. ”

Zhang Shaohui said: "I think this is unlikely to be the case. If you look back, as long as you entered the stock market at the beginning of this year, you have basically lost a lot so far. In this case, it is unlikely that the company will sell its shares before the end of the year to recoup cash in order to make accounts at the end of the year. Now such a trend indicates that the market will continue to test the bottom, and it is possible to break through the previous low of 1664 points in January and February next year. ”

Li Xin said: "You are too pessimistic. ”

"It's not that I'm pessimistic, but you don't have a backache when you stand and talk. The Liugong machinery in my hand from November 7 to the high point of this wave of rise, a total of about 5 yuan, and now from the high point down 2 yuan 5, and from the K-line chart, this decline is unstoppable for a while, and it is likely to return to the low point of November 7 again. ”

Wang Haoqiang said: "Li Xin also has the stock of Liugong Machinery in his hand, and his position is much heavier than yours." ”

Wang Minghui said: "That's right. ”

Zhang Shaohui's words reminded Li Xin, and he continued Zhang Shaohui's topic and said: "Speaking of the stock of Liugong Machinery, I remembered an article I saw on the Internet this morning. In that report, a very novel idea was put forward: the excavator index would be a leading indicator for predicting the trend of the domestic economy. ”

Zhang Shaohui asked: "What does the excavator index mean?"

Li Xin said: "As for how the excavator index is calculated, we will not discuss it in detail, but the key issue is that the number of excavator sales has the greatest impact on this index, and the higher the number of excavator sales, the faster the excavator index rises." The point of that article is this: the economy is driven by nothing more than the troika of investment, exports, and consumption. And the domestic economy has a very striking feature: investment is the most important of the troika. In the area of investment with the largest weight, manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate are the troika that drives investment. Among the troika of investment, investment in manufacturing is obviously pro-cyclical, while real estate investment is relatively stable overall. ”