Wang Dong said: "We have not changed much in the planting area of raw materials over the years, and the weather has been good so far this year, as long as there is no frost in the later period, the sugar content of sugarcane will not change much, so it is estimated that this year's sugar production should not be much different from last year." ”

Li Xin said: "What do you think of the sugar price in the new crushing season?"

Wang Dong sighed and said: "Alas, this is not easy to say! The price of sugar in the previous crushing season has fallen to the current level, and the sugar factory will not make much profit in producing a ton of sugar, so of course we hope that the sugar price in the new crushing season will be better." ”

Li Xin asked: "The price of sugar in the market is about 3,600 now, what do you think if the price of new sugar is the same?"

Wang Dong said vaguely: "At this price, the sugar factory can't make much money." ”

Li Xin further asked: "The sugar price in September this year has dropped a lot compared with the beginning of the crushing season, do you estimate that the sugar price in September next year will be much lower than 3,600 yuan? For example, if it falls below 3,300 yuan?"

Wang Dong said: "This price is too low, isn't it? Based on last year's sugarcane purchase price, the sugar price of 3,600 yuan is not high, if it falls below 3,300 yuan, unless the sugarcane purchase price in the new crushing season drops sharply, otherwise, the sugar factory will not make any profit at all, and it will be closed!"

Li Xin said: "That's what I said. As for the purchase price of sugarcane, it has been relatively stable in various places in recent years, and it should not be possible to reduce it. ”

Wang Dong said: "Yes, the purchase price of sugarcane is related to the interests of the majority of sugarcane farmers, if the price is too low, it will affect the enthusiasm of sugarcane farmers, and the reduction of planting area will affect the output in the next two or three years." Therefore, I think that unless the supply of sugarcane acreage exceeds demand, the purchase price of sugarcane will drop significantly. However, in all respects, there is no such situation in the supply of raw materials for the new season, at least as far as I know. ”

After listening to this, Li Xin said: "Director Wang, you are right, thank you, I won't bother you, come to our office to talk when you have time." ”

Wang Dong said, "Okay. ”

After Li Xin put down the phone, Xia Xiaona asked, "What does the sugar factory say?"

Li Xin said: "They also feel that the price is too low, and in this case, the sugar factory will not make a profit at all." ”

Xia Xiaona said: "In this way, the price of sugar is relatively low now, but it is a pity that the sugar company has no money now, and there is nothing to be done about looking at the fat meat in the mouth!"

Li Xin replied casually: "Who said it wasn't." He replied with this on his lips, but he was thinking in his heart: The price of 3,300 yuan is the ex-factory price of the sugar factory, and the sugar factory has no profit, and 3,200 yuan is not even lower? The seller gets the sugar from the sugar factory at this price, and puts it until September next year, plus the freight and storage fees, the cost will increase.

In this way, the price of the T709 contract for delivery in September next year is obviously low!

The only explanation for this phenomenon is that the market has taken to the other extreme.

Here's your chance!

He grabbed a blank piece of printer paper and calculated it as he thought.

The funds in hand are 3 million yuan, the price is about 3200 yuan, and the full position can buy 900 hands according to the calculation of 10% margin.

If you are bold, you can buy 600 lots based on two-thirds of the position.

Isn't it too risky to take such a large position?

Holding a long order of 600 lots around 3200 yuan, if the price trend is opposite to expectations, how much loss can it bear?

If it falls by 167 yuan on the basis of the purchase price, it will just lose all the remaining 1 million yuan on the account, and the loss ratio will reach 33%.

Is it very likely that such a situation will occur? At this price, the sugar mill has no money to make and will close down, so it should have a high margin of safety.

So how high can we see upward? Director Wang said that the price of 3600 sugar factories barely has a little profit, which should be more credible.

Taking this price as the ex-factory price of the sugar factory, after the trader buys the goods, plus the freight and storage fees, the cost will increase by at least 200 yuan by September next year.

September is the end of the crushing season and the peak sugar consumption in the second half of the year, and given this seasonal factor, coupled with traders' profit expectations, it is possible that the price of sugar will recover to 4,300 yuan in September last year.

The possibility of falling 167 yuan is small, and the possibility of rising 1000 yuan is high, this thing is worth doing!

After Wang Dong put down the phone, he began to mutter: Li Xin was dodging on the phone to inquire about the price of sugar in September next year, which obviously refers to the futures price. Could it be that the sugar company plans to buy the futures for September next year?

He is now upset when he mentions futures, and the last time he bought 100 futures at a high price he lost more than one million, that experience cast a huge shadow on his heart.

Li Xin's words reminded him that he also felt that the futures price in September next year would be relatively low, but he really didn't have the confidence to toss futures anymore now.

What if I lose again? Didn't you also see it accurately last time?

After Xia Xiaona saw Li Xin answer the phone, she sat there with all her mind writing and drawing, not knowing what he was thinking.

After a while, Li Xin stopped his pen, folded the piece of paper in his hand and put it in his pocket, got up and hurried out.

After Li Xin quickly arrived at the exchange, he saw that there were not many people who had reported the papers, and Zhang Jin and Wang Hong were relatively free, so he said, "Zhang Jin, are you free at this time? ”

Zhang Jin listened and said excitedly: "Yes." ”

He immediately turned around and ordered: "Wang Hong, you take Li Xin to go through the deposit procedures, I'll keep an eye on it here." ”

After Li Xin transferred the funds from him, his trading volume here suddenly shrank a lot, and now he was very happy to see Li Xin take the initiative to go through the deposit procedures.

Major banks have stationed outlets on the exchange, and after more than ten minutes, Li Xin completed the deposit procedures.

Seeing Li Xin come in after completing the formalities, Zhang Jin asked with a smile: "Do you have any plans?" What will you do, empty or more?"

"I think I can buy a little bit of a dip when the price is about the same. Li Xin said, after speaking, he sat down and stared at the computer screen, concentrating on the market.

The delivery month of the T709 contract is September next year, and it will become the most active main contract around April next year, and now the trading volume of this contract is not large, only about 2,000 lots per day, and the total open interest is more than 5,000 lots.

Holding 600 lots in such a contract, accounting for nearly one-tenth of the total, will it be targeted by the other party?

After careful consideration, Li Xin thinks that even if he is targeted, he is not afraid!

Because if the main contract with the largest trading volume falls sharply on the current basis, then even if no one uses funds to suppress it, it is inevitable that T709 will follow the decline.

Otherwise, it is very unlikely that it will be suppressed by the opponent with funds and fall by 167 yuan.

This contract has just started trading for more than a month, and it can be seen from the graph that the position price of more than 5,000 hands is between 3,200 and 3,300 yuan, and it is impossible to suppress its price against the market by 167 yuan alone, without tens of millions of yuan of funds.

What's more, if there is no corresponding decline in other contracts, and the price of the contract falls so much against the market, there will be nearly 10,000 positions suppressed by short positions, and there will be more long funds targeting these positions, how to exit these short positions!

Zhang Jin looked at Li Xin, who was sitting in front of the computer and watching the plate intently, and knew that he was definitely going to make a move today.

He spends his days with his clients and likes to observe them when he's not working.

Li Xin is a very characteristic person, he does not procrastinate in doing things, and he will do what he decides immediately.

But his city is very deep, even if he will reveal a little bit on his lips, no one can guess what he really thinks in his heart.

In the first two waves of the market, he made a lot of money, but he never talked about the reason for buying and selling in advance.

When other customers place orders here, they will discuss it with others, Li Xin never asks for the opinions of others when placing orders, I really don't know where he has such confidence.

Li Xin looked at the market for a while, suddenly remembered something, and asked Zhang Jin: "How did the long orders in the hands of the sugar factory you said last time be dealt with in the end, and the position was closed or waited until the final delivery?"

"In the end, the agreement was closed, and I heard that it was still very difficult to deal with it. Zhang Jin said.

"What's going on?" asked Li Xin.

Zhang Jin said: "The 100 empty orders of the short side are scattered in the hands of several customers, in fact, these customers with short orders are individual investors, not sugar factories, and the number in each person's hands is not large, so it is not easy for them to find sucrose that meets the delivery standards." Moreover, it is difficult to reconcile the opinions of many people, and the expected closing price in everyone's hearts is also different, so it is impossible to unify opinions. In the end, the exchange had to come forward to coordinate, and everyone sat down to agree on a price acceptable to both long and short parties, and the agreement was closed. ”

Li Xin said: "This is also a good solution, otherwise, both sides will add a lot of trouble." ”

Zhang Jin said: "That's right." As a multi-party, if the sugar factory really wants to deliver, they must want to take away the 1,000 tons of cane sugar from the same production plant, so that they can sell it later. Most of the short customers who hold short orders are speculative transactions and are not familiar with the delivery procedures at all, if they are asked to find sucrose to deliver, the sugar they find must be varied, and it is difficult to say whether they can meet the delivery standards. In this way, the two sides are not talking about it, and the department responsible for delivery on the exchange side is also a headache. ”

Li Xin smiled and said, "The exchange must be the first time to encounter such trouble, right?"

Zhang Jin said: "It's true, I've never encountered such a thing before, this time at least let the personnel of various departments go through the procedures thoroughly in their hearts, familiarize themselves with these processes, and when there are similar things in the future, they will have a bottom in their hearts." ”

Li Xin asked: "What do the people here think of the current sugar price?"

Zhang Jin was thinking in his heart just now, wanting to find out what Li Xin was going to do this time and what the reason was. But now he hasn't found a chance to ask Li Xin, so Li Xin asked him first.