Li Xin listened to Liu Zhongzhou's words, and couldn't help but think in her heart: The upward trend you said can't last forever, and it sounds right wherever you put it. Originally, how can there be a market that keeps going up or down, right?

You dare to sell short at this high level, don't you think that the price has risen to the point where it is unreasonable. But the question is, when will the reversal you hope for come? Now that you have lost more than 47 million yuan in your account, what if you can't survive the moment when the price falls?

Liu Zhongzhou said this, and asked Huang Hongliang again: "You are the general manager of the sales company, I want to listen to your views on the future trend of copper prices." ”

This is the core issue that Liu Zhongzhou is most concerned about, and how to look at this problem determines what to do with these short positions in his hands in the future. He must wait for Huang Hongliang to come this morning before starting the meeting, in order to listen to Huang Hongliang's views on this issue.

Huang Hongliang's answer just now was equivalent to saying nothing, and Liu Zhongzhou was very dissatisfied. Now that he talked about the issue of copper prices, he once again named Huang Hongliang and asked him to show his attitude.

Huang Hongliang was forced into a corner, there was no way out, he thought about it and said, "I think it should rise again." ”

Liu Zhongzhou was listening intently, waiting for the next words, but he didn't expect Huang Hongliang to stop after saying this, and there seemed to be no follow-up.

Liu Zhongzhou, who was full of anticipation, refused to give up and asked, "What else?"

Huang Hongliang looked at Liu Zhongzhou and said cautiously: "No." ”

Liu Zhongzhou was quite dissatisfied, frowned, and said: "You only said half a sentence! You only said that it would rise, but did not say how much, what is the difference between this and not saying it? If you go up by one piece, it will also rise, and if it rises by four or five thousand, you have to say something." ”

Huang Hongliang, who was grinding the gun, quickly estimated it in his heart and said his own judgment: "I think it is possible to increase by another one or two thousand yuan per ton." ”

At this time, Huang Hongliang, who was closely questioned by Liu Zhongzhou, had no time to move other thoughts, and in a hurry, he said the truest thoughts in his heart.

The reason why he reluctantly stopped and left the market yesterday was not only the constant pressure that he couldn't bear, but also the rising price made him feel a little bad. Judging from this trend, it must be easy to rise and fall in the near future, and it is very risky to continue to hold short positions, so he closed the position.

This morning's trend made him feel that the room for growth was much greater than he imagined yesterday. Liu Zhongzhou repeatedly asked him to judge the magnitude of the price increase, and he also said this number that suddenly popped up in his heart.

Huang Hongliang heard Li Xin say that the price of goods had risen by more than 800 yuan in the early days of today, and he thought: In this way, the group's sales price will be raised, and the range will be at least between 1,000 and 1,500 yuan.

The rise in the market sales price, in turn, will have a driving effect on the futures price, and he dare not say how much the futures price will rise at the highest, but it will definitely not be wrong to increase by another one or two thousand yuan.

After listening to Huang Hongliang's judgment, Liu Zhongzhou looked at the people at the venue and asked, "What do other people think?"

There was silence in the venue, and suddenly, Zheng Guorui broke the silence and said: "I agree with Mr. Huang's opinion, it should rise by one or two thousand yuan." ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "There are already two people who think that there will be a 2,000 yuan increase, do the rest of you have different opinions? If you don't speak, I think you and them have the same opinion." ”

Liu Zhongzhou's move forced everyone to have a clear attitude, and after saying this, he glanced at the venue and waited quietly for everyone to speak.

After more than ten seconds, seeing that no one squeaked, Liu Zhongzhou said: "Well, everyone agrees with their opinions, thinking that it will continue to rise by about 2,000 yuan." ”

At this moment, Li Xin said: "I think it's not enough, I'm afraid it will rise by another four or five thousand yuan." ”

Liu Zhongzhou was stunned for a moment and asked, "Another four or five thousand yuan? Is there so much?"

Li Xin nodded.

Liu Zhongzhou said: "Tell me your reasons. ”

Li Xin said: "The integer mark of 40,000 yuan is an unprecedented high point in the history of copper prices, and the price has been hovering in front of this threshold before, and the long and short sides have been fighting for a long time. Today, under the negative news, the bulls have broken through this threshold, and they will not be able to cash in on the profits if they do not expand up to a considerable extent, so I think the range of 2,000 yuan is not enough, and they will at least look up to the space of 4,000 or 5,000 yuan. ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "I agree with the majority of people's opinions, it may be more reasonable to raise the price by another one or two thousand yuan, but the four or five thousand yuan you said is too large." Did you know that there is a scheme called a bull trap?"

Li Xin nodded, and Liu Zhongzhou continued: "You know, right? This is also called luring long, which refers to the premeditated initiative of the short side to retreat, so that the long side can push the price up to a certain position, and then the short side will press down to obtain greater profit margins." I think today's situation is very much like a bullish trap, and we need to guard against this trick and not give up when we should not give up. Isn't there such a saying? Victory often comes when you hold on a little longer. ”

Speaking of this, Liu Zhongzhou paused for a moment, looked at everyone's reactions, and said: "With an upside of 2,000 yuan, we will lose another 40 million yuan, even if we calculate with Li Xin's most pessimistic rise of 5,000 yuan, we will lose another 100 million, and at this number, the available funds in our futures account are enough to deal with it, Minister Zheng?"

Seeing Liu Zhongzhou looking at him, Zheng Guorui hurriedly replied: "Yes, there are still 140 million of the total available funds now." ”

Liu Zhongzhou took Zheng Guorui's reply and said: "This is estimated according to the worst plan, and my personal opinion is that I can't get to that position." Let's think back to how much we expected to fall when we started to open a position? From 38,000 yuan, it will not only fall by 5,000 or 6,000 yuan, right? Now from the height of 40,000 yuan, the space will be more than 5,000 or 6,000 yuan. Therefore, in this analysis, it seems that we are worth taking the risk of continuing to hold positions, and we can afford to bear it. Taking a step back, even if the futures price rises by 5,000 yuan, and it still stops at that high level and does not fall, then we are just gradually closing the position according to the sales situation. Let's not forget that our short positions are not unilateral short orders, but hedging corresponding to the production in the second half of the year. If we are unilaterally short in the futures market, it may really be time to stop the loss and leave, but considering that the price is very likely to reverse and fall at a high level, the output of 30,000 tons in the second half of the year is facing a greater risk, so we can't go out now. ”

When Li Xin heard this, he knew that Liu Zhongzhou had already thought very clearly in his heart, and he would definitely not close the position.

In fact, the price has risen to the current position, which is not too far from the target position of four or five thousand yuan estimated by Li Xin when he opened the position, and after the price broke through the 40,000 yuan mark today, the profit margin in his heart continued to expand by four or five thousand yuan, which was already the limit he could think of.

At present, Liu Zhongzhou has estimated the worst situation he thought of, and Li Xin has nothing to say at this time, after all, Liu Zhongzhou's estimate is also very likely to occur.

There is only one point, Li Xin will not agree with Liu Zhongzhou's statement of the bull trap. If you want to say that it is tempting at other times, it is still debatable. But to say that this morning's trend is a move by the bears to lure long, Li Xin can't believe it.

He couldn't think of seeing such a rapid rise, how could Liu Zhongzhou have such an idea of a bull trap in his heart.

Li Xin is now gradually figuring out the true purpose of Liu Zhongzhou's meeting, it turned out that he thought that Liu Zhongzhou wanted everyone to make up their minds together, and decided to stop the loss and leave, after all, this is a loss of more than 47 million yuan, and there is no collective opinion Liu Zhongzhou himself can't afford this responsibility, but now it seems that this is not the case. However, one thing is the same, that is, Liu Zhongzhou still wants everyone to make ideas together, but instead of stopping losses and closing positions, they continue to hold positions.

In a sense, the risk of continuing to hold a position may be greater, and Liu Zhongzhou can't afford it alone, so he wants to pull everyone to stand with him.

Li Xin recalled that when he first heard the news of the skyrocketing, Liu Zhongzhou was obviously a little panicked, but after just over half an hour, Liu Zhongzhou calmed down. His views on continuing to hold positions at the meeting should have been clearly thought out before he walked into the venue, and it was impossible to make a temporary decision at the meeting.

From this point of view, Liu Zhongzhou's psychological endurance is really extraordinary. In contrast, Huang Hongliang and Zheng Guorui, Liu Zhongzhou's most effective left and right hands, performed much worse than Liu Zhongzhou at the meeting, at least their ability to resist pressure was not at the same level.

Jiang Hua, who has been watching the situation of the meeting since the beginning of the meeting, now knows why Liu Zhongzhou scolded Huang Hongliang like a grandson today, but he has a completely different attitude towards Li Xin.

Huang Hongliang was scolded, of course, there was a reason why Huang Hongliang was late, and almost everyone at the venue thought that this was the main reason why Huang Hongliang was scolded by Liu Zhongzhou, but in Jiang Hua's view, this is just *, and the main reason is not this at all.

The main reason why Huang Hongliang was scolded was that he was the first to jump out to support Liu Zhongzhou to bear the copper price at the first meeting to discuss hedging, and he was also the first to agree to Liu Zhongzhou to do hedging in the futures market.

It stands to reason that Huang Hongliang is Liu Zhongzhou's most intimate follower, and he supports Liu Zhongzhou the most in doing so, but why can't he get Liu Zhongzhou's good face?

The key problem here is that there are huge losses in the futures account now, and Huang Hongliang's strong support at the beginning is actually one of the reasons for this situation.