Chapter 204: Talking to Yourself
Liu Zhongzhou frowned and said: "It's okay if you can't see it, you have to think about this problem clearly in the future." ”
Li Xin couldn't explain to Liu Zhongzhou's basically unsolvable question for a while, but in front of so many people, he couldn't let Liu Zhongzhou get off the stage, so Li Xin had to deal with it: "Okay." ”
After listening to Liu Zhongzhou's somewhat dissatisfied words, a few people thought that Liu Zhongzhou would take advantage of the topic to play and find an opportunity to continue to teach Li Xin a lesson, and they were all waiting to see a good show. Today, Huang Hongliang was scolded by Liu Zhongzhou for being late, and now Li Xin can't answer such a critical question, they estimate that Li Xin's ending will not be better than Huang Hongliang.
Wu Yunyu, who was sitting on the side to take minutes of the meeting, also had a handful of sweat in her hands, in her opinion, Li Xin's suggestion to let Liu Zhongzhou close the position just now was already very taboo, and he would definitely not agree to let Liu Zhongzhou admit compensation at this time.
What Liu Zhongzhou's attitude towards Li Xin has been like during this period of time, everyone knows in their hearts. After listening to Li Xin's suggestion just now, Liu Zhongzhou didn't scold Li Xin in public, which was already good, and now Li Xin couldn't answer his question well, saying that he couldn't see whether there were more open positions or more closed positions this morning, isn't this the rhythm of scolding?
Wuyunyu couldn't figure it out, Li Xin, who usually couldn't stop any problems, how could he drop the chain at a critical moment today.
Wu Yunyu saw with his own eyes how Liu Zhongzhou was angry because of a series of unpleasant things this morning, Liu Zhongzhou scolded Huang Hongliang in the chairman's office just before the meeting, and everyone in this venue could hear it clearly, Li Xin's current performance is easy to ignite Liu Zhongzhou's anger again.
But contrary to everyone's expectations, after Liu Zhongzhou finished saying this, he did not chase after the questions that he was dissatisfied with as usual, but changed the topic, put Li Xin aside, looked at Huang Hongliang and asked, "Tell me what you think?"
If Huang Hongliang did not short in the futures market, then his mentality should be the same as Xue Chenzhi at this time, and he should be happy to see the price of copper skyrocketing, and it is even possible to call Gao Hui and their sales managers immediately, and ask them to stop shipping immediately, and wait until the sales price is raised, otherwise, every ton of copper sold will make a profit of nearly 1,000 yuan.
But this is not the case, since Huang Hongliang lost money on his own futures account, his head has been stirred up like a pot of porridge by the expanding losses, and he has been confused all day long, and there is no way to concentrate on thinking about the sales company.
Fortunately, from the perspective of the sales company, the price of copper has risen along the way, which is beneficial to the performance of the sales company. Therefore, even if Huang Hongliang, the general manager, seems to be sleepwalking all day long, and is not in a state at all, it does not prevent the sales managers below from taking advantage of the trend and making the sales company's performance very beautiful.
Otherwise, if the price of copper is falling all the way, in a state like Huang Hongliang, it is no wonder that the performance of the sales company will not be able to deal with the complex situation in a timely manner.
When he heard Liu Zhongzhou's question to himself, Huang Hongliang was a little dazed, he didn't know what to say, this question was too big, he didn't have the courage to say anything like Li Xin.
It stands to reason that after he made up his mind to dispose of all the positions in his hand yesterday, it means that he has seen that something is wrong with the problem, and at this time Li Xin's opinion is the same as his own opinion, and he should agree with it.
However, Huang Hongliang was able to make up his mind to stop his position, but he did not dare to make irresponsible remarks about the group's position, or to put it more plainly, he felt that in this matter of the group, it would do more harm than good to say that he might take risks.
He noticed that after Li Xin expressed his opinion, Liu Zhongzhou did not express his position, and he did not know Liu Zhongzhou's attitude, he was unwilling to be a leading bird like Li Xin.
Therefore, Huang Hongliang said vaguely: "It happened too suddenly, and I haven't thought about it yet." ”
Seeing that Huang Hongliang couldn't say why, Liu Zhongzhou turned his eyes to Zheng Guorui again: "What do you think?"
Zheng Guorui, who thought he could deeply understand Liu Zhongzhou's hedging strategy, fell into a huge contradiction at this time. Just as he thought, the group's copper output of more than 30,000 tons in the second half of the year, as long as the price trend is not accurate, should be sold for hedging. In the future, there will be no more than three price trends: up, flat, and down.
Judging from the current situation of copper prices at historical highs, it is obvious that the probability of falling is greater, plus the possibility of flat, the rationality of selling hedging is more than 70%, which is theoretically feasible.
Even if there is a third rise, as long as the hedging short position is released in time, this can still allow the company's products to enjoy the benefits brought by the price increase.
However, things are developing in the most unlikely and undesirable direction, and what is even worse is that when the matter comes to an end, Zheng Guorui realizes that theory is one thing, reality is almost another thing, and reality is much more complex and tricky than the original theoretical assumptions.
Let's just say that the proposal to close the position in front of me should be the most important thing to do at present, but in this way, the opportunity to move back the capital will be lost, and the floating loss of more than 47 million yuan will immediately become an actual loss.
But if the position is not closed and the price continues to rise, it will lose more than 17 million yuan this morning, and there are only more than 140 million yuan of available funds left in the two futures accounts.
Looking at Liu Zhongzhou's expectant eyes, Zheng Guorui, who had nothing to do, even had an idea in his head: If only Liu Zhongzhou asked himself this question before asking Huang Hongliang, in that case, he could answer Liu Zhongzhou with Huang Hongliang's sentence just now.
But now it's too late, and it's impossible for him to answer Liu Zhongzhou with the sentence "I have the same opinion as Mr. Huang", in that case, he will definitely be scolded to death by Liu Zhongzhou. Because this sentence, which is often used by others at the venue, does not look like a formal answer here, but like a funny talk show, and if he lends him two more dares, Zheng Guorui will not dare to say it.
Looking at Zheng Guorui, whose face was flushed and didn't know what to say, Liu Zhongzhou said unusually reasonably: "It's okay, everyone can speak freely, you can say whatever you want." ”
Liu Zhongzhou's actions are indeed rare, all of this stems from the current predicament, and he himself knows in his heart that such a problem is rare today, but as long as he has a clear idea, he will not do it. If you don't let everyone tell the truth at this time, I'm afraid that things will be more difficult in the future.
Listening to Liu Zhongzhou's words of encouragement, Zheng Guorui hesitated for a long time and said cautiously: "Can you reduce some of your positions?"
Zheng Guorui thought to himself: What Li Xin just said about closing the position must be referring to all positions, and 20,000 tons will appear together. Liu Zhongzhou was noncommittal about this opinion, and now he compromised Li Xin's opinion again, and only said that he would close a part of the position, as for how much to close the position, he didn't think about it, so he didn't say the specific number, so there shouldn't be much of a problem.
If Liu Zhongzhou is really interested in this opinion, he will definitely continue to ask for specific figures, and then he will find a way to deal with him at that time, anyway, the purpose is to pass the current level first.
Just like Li Xin guessed, Liu Zhongzhou also imagined closing all positions and stopping losses, but this idea only flashed in his mind when he was panicked, and then he carefully denied this idea.
After listening to Zheng Guorui's opinion, Liu Zhongzhou said: "Reducing positions at this time is one way, but is this the best way?"
Li Xin, who had been listening attentively, couldn't help but be a little shocked in his heart: Otherwise, could it be that you still want to increase your position?
Li Xin also heard some of the meanings of Liu Zhongzhou's words at this time, Zheng Guorui only said that he would reduce part of his position, and Liu Zhongzhou was not very willing, so the opinion that he said about closing all positions and appearing was even less in his eyes. No wonder he didn't give a positive answer after he finished talking just now.
But in this way, Li Xin couldn't guess what Liu Zhongzhou wanted to achieve by holding this meeting.
Before he could continue to think about it, Liu Zhongzhou continued: "Don't forget, we are doing hedging, these short positions are corresponding to the output in the second half of the year, even if you want to reduce the position, you must close the position in batches according to the actual shipment volume of each month after August." Otherwise, now the futures position is out of the market, and when the copper price falls in the second half of the year, the copper we produce will not be protected by the futures position, and the actual sales profit will be reduced by another piece, and we will lose twice as much inside and out!"
Liu Zhongzhou said that this situation is not impossible, and his words reminded everyone here that everyone couldn't help but remember their own attitudes and opinions when the hedging decision was made at the meeting. Except for Li Xin, everyone else agrees with Liu Zhongzhou's hedging opinion, quit at this time, and what if both ends are not good when the market falls in the future?
Liu Zhongzhou continued: "We reduce our positions or close all positions at this time, it is very likely that it is at the most undue time. In fact, the key is whether the position should be closed or not, the key is to see whether the price will continue to rise, right?"
Speaking of this, he paused for a moment, glanced at everyone's expressions, and saw that many people agreed with his statement, and he noticed that even Li Xin nodded secretly at his statement.
So he went on to say: "The news of the continuous sell-off shows that the market does not agree with the current high prices, and although I don't know the reason for the price rise today, I still think that such a situation is not sustainable." As long as this situation is not sustainable, there is a possibility of a reversal, which means that the case for us to continue to hold hedging positions remains. ”