After getting up on the morning of September 26, Li Xin first looked at the trend of the Dow.

Because of the time difference, the trend of the Dow Jones displayed on Friday, September 26 is actually the data on September 25.

On this day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 196 points, or 1.82%, and closed at 11,022 points.

This trend is the kind of small rebound that Li Xin has already detected after three consecutive negative candlesticks, and the closing point of this positive candle just came to the vicinity of the 5-day moving average.

From the perspective of technical analysis, Li Xin inferred that as long as the Dow closing index displayed tomorrow morning continues to be suppressed below the 20-day moving average as the two consecutive positive candles on September 18 and September 19, then the trend of the Dow will continue to fall next Monday.

Because the current trend of the Dow is a very obvious bearish trend, this trend is characterized by a wave of decline after a wave of rebound, but the high of the rebound will definitely be lower than the high of the previous wave, and at the same time, the low of the next wave of decline will be lower than the low of the previous wave of decline.

Xia Xiaona saw that Li Xin got up earlier than usual, and went to the computer in the study early to check the market, so she asked, "Don't you plan to go out to play today?"

"No, today is the last trading day before the holiday, I have to look at the trend, but you can book a ticket, tomorrow morning and afternoon, we will fly directly to Xi'an." ”

"Are you sure?, then I'll buy the ticket when I go out to buy groceries later, don't you regret it?" Xia Xiaona said happily.

"Of course, you can decide. ”

At nine o'clock, the futures market opened, and today's opening price was 53,400 yuan, compared with yesterday's closing price of 53,440 yuan, it was only 40 yuan, which can almost be regarded as a flat opening.

Such an opening price, if you think about it carefully, actually contains a lot of information. Because the opening price of each day in the previous 4 trading days was either significantly higher or significantly lower than the previous trading day, with as little as five or six hundred yuan and as much as 1,380 yuan. But today it is only 40 yuan lower, which can be regarded as a flat opening.

Such a trend clearly shows such a message: in today's last trading day before the National Day holiday, both the bulls and bears have no intention of continuing to raise prices or suppress prices.

From the point of view of ordinary investors, no matter which side moves too much at this time, it may face an unfavorable situation after the holiday, so traders who participate in speculation today should not be very enthusiastic.

But in Li Xin's opinion, this may be the last calm before dawn.

On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, copper prices are likely to come out of a round of earth-shattering trends, and there is a high probability that they will fall.

Sure enough, after the copper price opened at a price of 53,400 yuan, the fluctuation range was very small compared with the previous few trading days.

At 9:08, the price rose to 53,540 yuan, and at 9:17, the price returned to 53,340 yuan.

More than 20 minutes later, at 9:34, the price rose to 53,600 yuan.

Since then, the price has been oscillating back and forth between 53,600 yuan and 53,340 yuan, and at 11:30 a.m., the price closed at 53,380 yuan.

Such a very small price fluctuation trend has provided Li Xin with an excellent opportunity to enter the market.

After the futures market reopened at 1:30 p.m., Li Xin seized the opportunity to start selling and opening positions.

When he sold the first open order, he was still a little nervous, but as time went on, the subsequent orders became simple mechanical operations.

Because the price fluctuates little, this time he sells and opens a position, just like the 4,000 short orders that he sold and closed last Friday, filling in the market price, which can speed up the speed of selling and opening positions, and the transaction can be very timely.

In this way, after a week, his 4,000 empty orders were almost picked up untouched, and the average transaction price this time was 53,350 yuan.

At 3 o'clock in the afternoon, the futures market closed, today's closing price is 53,360 yuan, the lowest price is 53,100 yuan, the highest price is 53,600 yuan, and the fluctuation range is 500 yuan in one day. Today's candlestick chart is a small black candlestick that almost resembles a doji.

Li Xin turned off the computer and came to the courtyard alone to breathe. After sitting in front of the computer for 4 hours with a high level of mental concentration, he seemed a little tired.

Today's weather is gloomy, a scene of mountain rain coming and the wind is full of buildings, and the temperature is much lower than the scorching sun in the sky a few days ago. Li Xin came to the pavilion by the lotus pond and sat down, quietly looking at the koi swimming in the water in a daze.

At this moment, Yuan Jie's call came.

"I really don't understand what you think, I just made a profit on the short order a week ago, and today I sold it again to open a position, don't you know that this is the last trading day before the long holiday?" Yuan Jie went out to meet an important customer this afternoon, so she didn't know when Li Xin opened a position. When she returned to the futures company's office near the end of the market, Li Xin's actions to open positions had been completed.

As soon as Yuan Jie entered his office, a subordinate from the settlement department ran in and said to her: "Vice President Yuan, your customer Li Xin sold another 4,000 hands today. ”

"Is it??" Yuan Jie was very surprised.

"It's after the opening of the afternoon. ”

"Is the market plummeting this afternoon?"

"No, the market is generally very stable, closing at the price of 53,360 yuan, compared with yesterday's closing price, it is almost a gap of one or two hundred yuan. ”

"Then what does he think, how can he sell and open a position at this price, and on such a special day as today?" asked Yuan Jie.

The subordinate shook his head and said, "I don't know about this, how dare I ask him? If I ask him in this tone, maybe he will think that I don't advise him to sell down and open a position, and if something happens in the future he blames me, I can't afford it." ”

Yuan Jie was right when he thought about it, only he could discuss such a question with Li Xin, and it was really inappropriate for others to talk to Li Xin about this topic. So she said, "Okay, I see." ”

As soon as this subordinate went out, Yuan Jie dialed Li Xin's phone.

Li Xin said: "In the futures market, it is normal to either go long or short. ”

"It's normal to go long and short, but you don't want to think about what day it is. ”

"Isn't it the last trading day before the holiday?"

"Oh, so you know!"

"Of course I do, what's wrong?"

"In this case, then you must also know that the futures market will open again on the next Monday, October 6th, and there will be nearly 10 days in the middle of the domestic futures market and the securities market are not trading, but the foreign futures market and stock market are trading. What will happen in the middle of this will have a great impact on the price of copper futures that will open on October 6, and you are not afraid that the price will skyrocket after the opening of the market on October 6? Isn't it just to avoid the risks brought about by the price surge and cash in on profits to leave the market? Why are you selling and opening positions now? Are you so sure that copper prices will continue to fall after October 6? Even if the price will continue to fall after October 6, wouldn't it be okay for you to wait until October 6 when the futures market will open again before you sell and open a position? Why take such a big risk by opening a position now?"

Yuan Jie was in a hurry and threw so many questions one after another on the phone to question Li Xin, because in her opinion, Li Xin was too reckless, and the risks and profits she would face in the future were completely disproportionate.

The domestic copper price is largely affected by the international copper price, and it is common for the price to gap high or low to open hundreds or even thousands of yuan within two trading days, not to mention that there are 5 trading days during the National Day holiday, and at the same time, what kind of risk will appear in the international market, it is very difficult to judge.

After Li Xin took a profit on Friday, September 19, and closed the position at a relatively low price, the copper price rose sharply by 1,860 yuan on Monday of this week, September 22, when Yuan Jie was still secretly happy for Li Xin in his heart, thinking that Li Xin's decision to close the position last Friday was very wise.

But just 4 days later, at the current price, Li Xin picked up the 4,000 empty orders again. Yuan Jie really couldn't figure out what was wrong with Li Xin's head, judging from Li Xin's previous shrewdness, this time and this price would not be an opportunity to make an order.

Li Xin said: "I have carefully considered this question, do you think I will act rashly?"

"Tell me, then, what do you think?"

"I have carefully studied that the reason why the copper price was able to stop falling on September 19 and the reason why the copper price rose sharply on September 22 was entirely due to the sharp rebound in the domestic stock market. However, after the stock market rebounded sharply, it retreated less than 5% from its highs, and copper prices fell from their highs almost to near the close on September 19. This suggests that expectations for a decline in copper prices remain strong and will fall sharply as long as the stock market continues to weaken. ”

"No, after the stock market index rose sharply on the 22nd, there was a pullback on the 23rd and 24th, but yesterday, Thursday and Friday, the stock market index rose, and the closing point was much higher than the closing point on the 22nd. ”

"The problem I want to talk about is here, in the process of the stock market correction on the 23rd and 24th, the correction was less than 5%, which caused the copper price to fall sharply. However, in the process of the stock market continuing to rise on the 25th and 26th, copper prices are hovering at a low level, and the pattern of weak copper prices is very obvious. ”