Chapter 525: Decision to Open a Position
"I read a book that sitting in front of the computer for too long is not good for your health, and you have to get up and walk around every half an hour, otherwise your body will be wrong. ”
Li Xin felt a burst of warmth in his heart, and he joked to Xia Xiaona: "Okay, I'll listen to you, and you will be a health nurse for me to supervise me in the future, okay?"
"You want to be beautiful!"
"Look at it, you said it yourself, I'll let you supervise my execution, and you don't do it. ”
"Will you listen to what I say?"
"Absolutely. ”
Xia Xiaona raised her chin and said seriously: "Okay, in the future, you will have to get up from the computer every half an hour and walk around, if you don't strictly enforce my rules and violate it more than three times, I will unplug your computer." ”
"Hehe, that's amazing!"
"Of course, it's forbidden, or you won't listen to me. ”
"Okay, well, I'll listen to you. ”
"That's pretty much it. Xia Xiaona said proudly.
The two sat on the edge of the pavilion, looking at the slowly swimming and colorful koi in the lotus pond close at hand, and chatting while feeding the fish with food.
Xia Xiaona saw that Li Xin was a little absent-minded, so she asked, "Are you still thinking about shorting in the futures market?"
"Hmm. ”
"Did you do that?"
"Not yet. ”
"Then it's just the last day of tomorrow. ”
"Yes, this is the hard part of this, and if I continue to trade next week, I won't be so entangled. ”
"Is it up or down today?"
"It started down and went up at 3 p.m. when it closed. ”
"No wonder you shouted at the opening of the market this morning, but after the close of trading at 3 p.m., it was silent, it turned out that the price trend was the opposite of what you had hoped. ”
"You noticed it too?"
"Of course, your biggest problem is that you are angry and can't hide things in your heart. Xia Xiaona gently pinched Li Xin's earlobe.
"Is it the same as people say that there is no city?"
Xia Xiaona thought for a while: "It doesn't seem to be oh, it's not right for you to say that there is no city at all, sometimes I can't even understand what you think in your heart." ”
"Aren't you contradicting yourself?"
"Oh, I can't say for sure, anyway, sometimes I can't guess what you're thinking, but sometimes what you're thinking is clearly written on your face, you're such a strange person. ”
Li Xin and Xia Xiaona sat by the pavilion and chatted about feeding the fish, and heard her say all kinds of interesting things encountered when they went to the farmers' market in Shanghai for the first time today, and the two sat by the pavilion for more than an hour. After Xia Xiaona went into the house to cook, Li Xin went back to the study to study his futures market.
The trend of copper prices in London yesterday and today is also the same as the trend of domestic copper prices, which is not prosperous, and there is no obvious upward and downward trend. Combined with this trend, Li Xin suddenly realized that the sharp rise in London copper prices on September 19 and September 22 was entirely due to the sharp rebound of the stock market index, that is to say, if the domestic stock market does not rise sharply, the London copper price will not rise, the London copper price will not rise, and the domestic futures copper price will not rise.
Judging from the rally that began on September 19, the rise in stock market indices was much stronger than the rise in copper prices. In the process of the stock index correction, the correction of copper prices is much greater than the correction of the stock market.
Today's stock market index trend and the trend of copper prices are more revealing: today's stock market rose sharply by 80 points, an increase of 3.64%, which is not a small increase, but the copper price fell by 50 yuan compared with the previous trading day, that is to say, the stock market has a leading role in copper prices, but with the rise in prices, copper prices are getting weaker and weaker with the stock market.
Judging from the price fluctuations of more than a week, in the process of the rise of the stock market index, the increase in copper prices is far from catching up with the rise of the stock market, but in the downward trend, the decline in copper prices is far greater than the decline in the stock market.
The stock market fell from 6,100 points to last week's lowest point of 1,800 points, a drop of more than 70%, which can almost be described as returning from the end to the beginning.
The price of copper rose from 20,000 yuan to 85,000 yuan, and the price increased several times. Although it has fallen from 85,000 yuan to about 53,000 yuan now, this decline is small compared with the increase of several times.
If the price of copper can fall by 70% from the highest point like the stock market index, then the price should be around 25,000 yuan.
Compared with the futures price in the current market, this price is almost 28,000 yuan, which means that the downward space is still very huge, and there is a decline of nearly 47%!
It makes sense that I thought that the price would fall below the 50,000 yuan mark, and now it seems that this idea is quite conservative!
In the face of such a huge business opportunity, Li Xin's heart began to beat a drum: Is it really possible to fall so much? If that is really the case, he will be able to make unimaginable profits in the future by selling and shorting at any price tomorrow. But if you miscalculate, sell and open a position at any price tomorrow, and the price of copper rises sharply after the holiday, then you may lose all the 150 million yuan you earned before.
Thinking of the clue seen from the trend chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Index last night, Li Xin quickly called up the trend chart of the Dow Jones and studied it carefully.
After careful study, he found out that this time the Dow's moving average system began to gradually diverge to the lower right to form a bearish arrangement, which actually began on September 12.
On September 12, the Dow Jones closed at 11,421 points. At that time, the downward divergence of several moving averages of the moving average system was not obvious, but on Monday, September 15, the Dow fell sharply by 504 points, or 4.42%, and after the closing point fell to 10917 points, several moving averages of the moving average system began to diverge downward.
On September 16, the lowest point of the Dow Jones reached 10,742 points, and although it rose 141 points to 11,059 points at the close, this trend did not affect the moving average system to continue to diverge downward.
On Wednesday, September 17, the Dow fell sharply by 449 points, or 4.06%, to close at 10,609 points. This long black candlestick continues to pull the moving average system that has begun to diverge downward, forming a more pronounced bearish arrangement.
Although the Dow rose for two consecutive days on September 18 and September 19, the closing point of 11,388 points on September 19 was still suppressed below the 60 moving average.
More importantly, on September 22, September 23 and September 24, the Dow fell sharply for three consecutive days, and the closing point of the Dow on September 24 was 10,825 points, returning to below the 5-day moving average again. Because of the two-day rise on September 18 and September 19, the 5-day moving average began to recover a little upward, but the decline in the last three days began to pull the 5-day moving average, which had turned back a little, to the lower right again, and the moving average system further formed a bearish arrangement.
And compared with the two-day rise on the 18th and 19th and the three-day decline on the 22nd, 23rd and 24th, the K-line system gave Li Xin a very obvious bearish image, that is, the trend of the entire K-line chart is to fall, rebound, and then continue to fall.
Now the Dow's K-line system and moving average system are all lower and lower bearish alignments, which indicates that the stock market index in this market will continue to fall in the future.
As a result, the domestic stock market index still has room to continue to fall, and the decline in copper prices is more and more inevitable.
After thinking about this truth, Li Xin suddenly realized that the fundamental reason why the copper price could not rise after he closed the position was still here.
It's not too late to make amends, and it seems to be a wise choice to get out of the position last Friday, but if you think about it carefully, this move is likely to be a huge mistake, if you don't pick up the position quickly, I'm afraid that after the National Day, I will step on a huge profit.
Questions like this are easy to think about, but when it comes to investing real money into the market to open a position, it's different.
Now the question is whether you dare to continue to short in this position.
And time is of the essence.
Today's trading day has passed, and tomorrow, Friday, September 26, is the last trading day before the National Day.
If you go short tomorrow, it means that there are 7 days of blank time during the National Day, and there is no way to trade, and if the price suddenly reverses after the National Day, you may face huge losses.
The 7-day long holiday on the National Day is a huge blank period for those who decide to go short, and it is also a blank period for long parties.
Since June, copper prices have continued to fall, falling to this position, if copper prices are to rise after the holiday, it should not be such a downturn before the holiday.
Li Xin was entangled, tossing and turning in bed all night.
At more than 2 o'clock in the night, Li Xin, who was restless, got up and looked at the trend of London copper prices, which closed at $6,955 that night, up 0.65% from the previous trading day.
Although the London copper price closed a small white candle today, this small white candle is a small rebound on the basis of a sharp decline of 4.59% on September 23 and a fall of 0.99% on September 24. This increase is almost insignificant compared to the sharp decline in the previous two trading days.
Li Xin finally made up his mind: resolutely short after the opening of the market tomorrow. If the price of copper rises sharply after the holiday, it will be regarded as the more than 150 million yuan that he earned before will be wasted!