Chapter 515: Gold, Black Gold, and Dollars (Second Update)
Liu Tianci is an outstanding financial talent, who has worked in HSBC for so long and is no stranger to the specific operation of the bank, so when managing Jiuding Bank, he naturally will not ignore the important influencing factor of the international gold price.
Since 1974, the international gold price has been on the rise, and by October 1977, the price of gold had risen from $130 to $180 per ounce.
Then in October 1977, the Federal Reserve began to periodically operate the dollar, started a super-loose monetary policy, and the dollar began to depreciate, which lasted until October 1978, when it stabilized, and the international gold price also rose to the current height of 244 US dollars.
The "three golds", that is, gold, black gold (oil) and the US dollar, are complexly linked.
In the early 70s of this century, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the world's monetary system built after World War II, the price of gold and oil both broke away from the fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, and the price soared. The three are closely related and check and balance each other, and there is relative stability hidden in the fluctuation of each other, and there is absolute change in the superficial stability.
When the US dollar depreciates, capital will choose hard currency gold as a safe haven, global capital will pour into the gold market, and the international gold price will rise.
Therefore, relatively speaking, Jiuding Bank's investment in gold can indeed preserve the value of assets and even make profits.
However, Liu Tianci has analyzed that the cyclical nature of the Federal Reserve has caused the dollar to depreciate for a year, and it will be stable for a long time.
But now Chairman Xia Yu pointed out that the international gold price was going to rise, and he went to speculate in London gold futures, Liu Tianci thought that he was inferior to Xia Yu in terms of ability and intelligence, so there must be some important news that he didn't know.
This is a wake-up call!
"Chairman, will the price of gold rise in the future, and for what reason?"
Liu Tianci asked, his expression was very serious and serious, and at the same time there was a trace of apprehension in his heart.
He hoped that the problem was in intelligence, not in his ability, otherwise it would definitely be a major blow to him.
Xia Yu's eyes flashed with a fine light, and he said in a solemn tone: "Iran's strike movement is about to change qualitatively now, and I predict that it will evolve into a revolution, and it is very likely that Iran's oil exports will stop at that time!"
"How is that possible?"
Liu Tianci was shocked, his eyes were round, and he blurted out his debut, which was unbelievable.
But looking at Chairman Xia Yu's serious expression, he had to take a deep breath to calm himself down.
Since Xia Yu said so, relying on his international vision and Jiuding News Agency's ability to collect and explore news, Liu Tianci had to believe in this possibility.
He is also aware of the internal struggle in Iran, where there have been large-scale demonstrations against the monarchy since January this year, and large-scale strikes since August.
But until the beginning of December, he didn't know much about the changes, so naturally he didn't expect that a revolution would break out in Iran, one of the powerful countries in the Middle East.
But if a revolution does break out in Iran, it will definitely have a huge world impact.
Just because Iran is so special!
In the industrial age, oil is the blood of industry, Iran is located in the heart of the world, the Middle East, itself is the world's second largest oil exporter, if the revolution really breaks out, and even as the chairman Xia Yu said that there is a phenomenon of stopping oil exports, then none of the developed countries in Europe and the United States can escape.
The reduction of international crude oil and the absolute skyrocketing of oil prices will trigger a series of evil consequences!
If nothing else, let's just say that the United States, the world's largest economy, has long relied on the two pillars of crude oil and the US dollar.
Now that the domestic fiscal deficit crisis in the United States has emerged, the inflation situation is prominent, and the dollar is weak, if crude oil soars again, it will definitely lead to a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, increase the depreciation pressure on the dollar, and the inflation in the United States will be more serious.
Now that the dollar has been depreciating for a year, the Fed has finally stopped the cycle to contain it, which is not bad, after all, it is still artificially manipulated.
However, if the international crude oil price suddenly soars, this sudden and uncontrollable factor will cause the Fed's deployment to be disrupted, and the capital will be forced to depreciate the US dollar, and the US dollar will be thrown out, and the capital will quickly seek refuge and preservation in the gold market.
Therefore, the international gold price will definitely start a new round of skyrocketing, from January 1977 to October 1978, the international gold price only rose by more than 60 US dollars an ounce in a year, and this time it will only be high and not low!
This is definitely a huge crisis!
Of course, with the news in advance and with preparation, the crisis will turn into a huge opportunity, and you can eat the most delicious meat before you can make the first move!
Thinking of this, Liu Tianci's heart was agitated, his face was a little red, and he said to Xia Yu: "Chairman, if it really happens as you said, then I will definitely stop investing, buy all the gold, and make a lot of money from him!"
Xia Yu laughed and said confidently: "According to the analysis, the probability of a revolution in Iran has reached more than 90 percent, so there is a lot to be done in gold. ”
There are now two major gold markets in the world, London and New York, which are very different.
The United States is one of the global gold futures trading centers, and the gold futures varieties in the United States mainly refer to the gold futures varieties of the New York Mercantile Exchange COMEX Exchange, commonly known as "New York Gold".
New York Gold is a futures contract, the contract has an expiration date, and the leverage is limited to less than 35 times.
London Gold, on the other hand, is a completely different story.
London gold is a spot contract, 24 hours a day, seven days a week is trading hours, and the contract is indefinite, and the leverage can be used up to 100 times.
London is the oldest gold trading center and the largest gold market in the world. It is characterized by the fact that there is no fixed exchange, i.e. there is no actual trading venue.
In other words, there is a lack of regulatory oversight of the transaction, which makes it a good fit for capital flows.
Compared with the restrictive New York Gold, Xia Yu, who is bent on quietly shooting guns, of course likes the London Gold that lacks supervision.
"Chairman, when do you think there will be a revolution in Iran?"
Liu Tianci asked again, this question is very critical, grasp it well, the crisis will be an opportunity, if you don't grasp it well, the opportunity can become a crisis again.
Xia Yu thought about it and said categorically: "If nothing happens, it will break out at the end of this month, and there will be half a month at most!"
"Half a month!"
Liu Tianci's expression was solemn, his mouth was chattering, and he quickly thought about how to act in order to maximize his interests.
Seeing this, Xia Yu smiled faintly and said to Liu Tianci: "Tianci, there is plenty of time, we have to make this money, but the bank is also going to buy, which bank do you like?"
Liu Tianci was stunned for a moment, his brows were slightly locked, why did the topic go around to the acquisition of banks again, didn't he let him invest in gold first just now?
It seems that the chairman meant that it is possible to invest in gold, but also to buy banks?
That's all there is to it, how does this work?
PS: How do you have the best of both worlds? Vote to find out☆( ̄▽ ̄)/$:*