"Oh, that's what you're talking about. Ma Tianming looked like an understatement.

Ma Tianming's attitude made Li Xin feel very strange, Li Xin said: "This is a little abnormal, right?"

Ma Tianming said: "Actually, I think the price above 4800 is unreasonable, and this wave of decline should be expected." ”

Li Xin was stunned for a moment: "How can you say this?"

At this time, Ma Tianming will not hide it. He knew that Li Xin was bullish on sugar prices, but now the trend of sugar prices is completely in line with his judgment, and in this price prediction, Li Xin completely lost to himself, which is a rare opportunity to move back face.

So he said his ultimate magic weapon: "Everyone thought that this snowstorm would cause a significant reduction in sugarcane production, but this is not the case. ”

Li Xin was taken aback: "What is the actual situation?

"The detailed data is not yet available, but what I know from the sugar association is that sugarcane production has really not dropped much. ”

"How could this be? Such a big snow disaster didn't have much impact, wouldn't it?" Li Xin said anxiously.

Ma Tianming picked up the cigarette on the table, took out one and threw it to Li Xin: "Actually, if you think about it carefully, you will understand the truth here, when did the snow disaster occur? At that time, the sugarcane had already grown completely, and the low temperature had little effect on the formation of sugarcane sugar." In addition, the sugarcane itself does not have many branches and leaves, so it will not cause a large area to lodging due to the weight of the snow. Even the part of the sugarcane that has fallen can be harvested and pressed into the mill for sugar, which will not have much impact on the growth of sugarcane in the coming year. So, the rise in sugar prices to the highs of 3700 and 3800 is completely speculation, and once everyone knows that the sugarcane planting area will not be affected much, this price will soon fall. ”

Li Xin woke up like a dream when she heard this, and she forgot to light the cigarette in her hand.

He asked Ma Tianming, "When did you know the news?"

Ma Tianming looked at Li Xin's stunned expression, kept an eye on him, and postponed the time for him to see through this mystery a lot: "I only figured out this truth in the past two days. What the are you doing? Didn't you miss the price and didn't buy more?"

Li Xin rubbed his forehead and said very annoyedly: "When the last wave of price correction came down, I bought 1,000 lots!"

Ma Tianming's words completely woke him up from his dream. He knew that what Ma Tianming said was right, combined with the falling market that he had not been able to understand in the past few days, the reason was clear at a glance.

This is a very simple truth, and it is easy to see this if you are a little familiar with the timing of the sugar crushing season. But because I haven't done sucrose futures for several years, I'm unfamiliar with many things here.

Now it was Ma Tianming's turn to be surprised. He always thought that Li Xin did not catch up with this wave of rise, and he had no position in his hand. Unexpectedly, at this time, Li Xin said that he had more than 1,000 orders in his hand, and he bought it during the last wave of callbacks.

Ma Tianming stared at the futures market every day during this period of time, and was very familiar with the price trend during this time.

He knows that the low of the last pullback can be much higher than today's close. In other words, even if Li Xin bought at the lowest point of the previous wave, he has lost nearly 300,000 yuan so far.

What's more, he doesn't believe that Li Xin's more than 1,000 lots of orders are all bought at the lowest price, which means that Li Xin's loss so far from 300,000 yuan is far more than 300,000 yuan.

Only now did he understand why Li Xin kept staring at himself and asking about the price of sugar, it turned out that he was trapped.

"And at what price did you buy it?"

"Around 4530. ”

"Wow, that's a loss of more than 1 million now!"

"It's okay, the point now is where do you think the price of sugar will be more reasonable?" The sudden change made Li Xin feel uncertain, so he had to ask Ma Tianming bluntly.

"Since the raw materials that I was worried about are not a problem, the price of sugar should still fall back from where it rises. The price before the Spring Festival is about 3,700 yuan, plus various factors, I think this wave should return to around 4,100 to 4,200 yuan. Ma Tianming said.

"Will it be so low?" Although Li Xin also felt that the reason for the price of sugar to rise did not exist at this time, he never expected that the price of sugar would be so low.

Ma Tianming said: "Of course, this is my personal estimate, and it is possible that it will rise if it does not fall to this position." ”

"Have you sold all the sugar you have?"

"It's almost sold, and now there are less than 1/3 left in the warehouse. ”

Li Xin completely understood in his heart when he heard this, Ma Tianming got such news and made such a judgment, and it was definitely in the past two days as he said. Otherwise, the sugar cane branch will not be able to sell more than two-thirds of the sugar in one or two days with so much sugar in various sales areas. It is possible in the futures market to get rid of such a large amount in a day or two, but it is completely impossible in the sales market.

Judging from the time, the last time Ma Tianming came to the office to chat with him, he already knew that the price of sugar would not rise.

But at that time, he watched the price almost rise, and while complimenting himself on seeing the market accurately, he was secretly selling the goods in his hand. This kid is yin enough!

But after thinking about it, Li Xin also figured it out: Ma Tianming's relationship with himself is not very iron, just a nodding acquaintance. Even the clever man who thought he was an old friend of the original sugar company, when he inquired about the news some time ago, he ignored himself, and of course Ma Tianming had no obligation to remind himself in this matter.

Fortunately, the loss of more than 1 million yuan is not too big, as long as you stop the loss on Monday.

At this time, Li Xin realized that he had not considered a way out of his investment this time, which was completely unimaginable for himself who had always acted cautiously.

Maybe if you lose this time, you won't think about retreating. But if you take this into account, things might end up differently.

Li Xin is a very careful and sensitive person, and for a long time, he has always been able to see a humble look in Ma Tianming's eyes when he looks at him. This kind of look was still in Ma Tianming's eyes when he entered the door just now.

But now this look is no longer visible in Ma Tianming's eyes, and his eyes are not as evasive as before, and he doesn't dare to look at himself, but he keeps looking at himself, as if he is observing the changes in the expression on his face.

And there was an expression on his face that seemed to be a smile but not a smile, a look on his face because of some kind of psychological advantage.

Although Li Xin has always done her own thing, she will not compete with anyone. But now he clearly feels that in Ma Tianming's eyes, he lost this game very badly.

Suddenly, Li Xin seemed to feel the feeling that the wall was falling down and everyone was pushing it in the eyes of other executives when he was angrily reprimanded by them at the senior management meeting held by Liu Zhongzhou and Jin Changxing.

The difference is that in the face of everyone's criticism at that time, everything has not yet come to light, and Li Xin still has confidence in his heart. But this time, it seems that he has lost.

Li Xin secretly said in his heart: This more than 1 million is a big number for you, and it doesn't matter to me at all!

"The investment of less than 30 million is only a few tenths of my total assets, and now I have lost more than 1 million, which is not a big problem, and I can stop my loss and leave the market next week. After Li Xin finished speaking, he took out a lighter and lit the cigarette, and used the act of smoking to hide his embarrassment.

His words, which is the only reason in his heart now that he can let himself despise Ma Tianming's schadenfreude mentality, although it is a bit Ah Q, but it is very effective.

Li Xin had never revealed his net worth in front of anyone before, but now in a hurry, he inadvertently revealed his net worth completely.

Ma Tianming is also a very shrewd person, he can completely hear that Li Xin's words just now are trying to save some face for himself, but he will not believe the specific information revealed in his inner words.

Ma Tianming thought: If what Li Xin said is true, then wouldn't he have a net worth of six or seven hundred million? How is this possible? This kid is dead and has a hard mouth.

Thinking of this, he smiled slightly and didn't say anything.

Li Xin suddenly realized that he had talked too much, and his mentality was a little embarrassing, and there was no way to continue chatting about the atmosphere between the two at this time, so he excused himself to say that he still had something to do, and immediately quit Ma Tianming's office.

After this change, Li Xin looked back at the two waves of gaps and declines yesterday and today, and the results were completely different from before.

Prior to this, looking at these two waves of small declines with a long thinking was nothing more than a pullback.

But now, if you put the sugarcane output basically unaffected by the background, the first two highs of 3,700 yuan and 3,800 yuan are really just hype on the news side, and this news side is still fake.

The three-day decline from Wednesday to today shows that the market has learned the actual situation of sugarcane raw materials, and the bears are continuing to exert their strength and expanding their results, while the gradual resistance of the bulls reflects a trend of declining and exhausting.

Li Xin suddenly found a sense of déjà vu: the current trend of sugar prices is extremely similar to the trend when he was short cane sugar. And the background is the same, the reasons for the rapid rise in sugar prices were suddenly found to be completely untrue.

If your estimate is correct, the three-day decline in a row indicates that the news will soon be clear, and sugar prices will usher in a wave of rapid decline.

It's not too late to make amends. The top priority now is to stop all these positions next Monday, otherwise it will be too late.