Mr. Zhao said: "I can't say this well, there are various theories at present." There are two main ones: First, the amount of imported sugar may be more than the original estimate of 1.2 million tons, and it is estimated that there may be a second batch, the quantity is unknown. Second, several batches of sugar of unknown origin have been seized along the southeast coast, and the amount is not small. Based on this, it is speculated that the amount of sugar coming in from abnormal channels across the country should not be underestimated. Personally, I guess these two main reasons may be the main reasons. ”

Li Xin asked again: "Mr. Zhao, how big do you expect the decline will be?"

Mr. Zhao smiled on the phone and said: "It's hard to say with certainty about the market! The current news is still some rumors, but the current sugar price is much higher than the same period last year, so you still have to be more careful! Has your company started to do futures now?"

Li Xin said: "Not yet, now we are just paying attention to and collecting information on futures prices." ”

Mr. Zhao said: "Xiao Li, I have the opportunity to give you Mr. Wu's advice, come to our exchange to open an account, and you will have a practical experience when you actually participate." ”

Of course, Li Xin knew his thoughts, but at this time, he was in no mood to care about this matter, so he had to say yes: "Okay, I'll talk to Mr. Wu when I have the opportunity." Thank you, Mr. Zhao. ”

Mr. Zhao said: "You're welcome, contact more when you have time!"

Li Xin held the microphone in his left hand, did not rest on the phone, and after hanging up the call with Mr. Zhao with his right hand, he immediately dialed the phone number of the Jiangnan Commodity Exchange.

It's 10:35 a.m., and Li Xin is eager to know what the price of the Jiangnan Commodity Exchange is now!

Zhang Jin said on the phone that the price of the T609 is 5578. This price is more than a dozen points lower than the price at which Li Xin closed his position in the morning, but it is almost negligible compared to the decline in the market outside the province this morning.

The market outside the province fell sharply again today, indicating that the decline in sugar prices has formed, and Li Xin knows that the opportunity to really short is coming!

Do you want to place an order right away, and how big is the position?

Time waits for no one, and opportunities are fleeting!

Li Xin suddenly felt as inexplicably nervous again as he was before the opening of the market this morning,

He felt that at this time, he should sort out his thoughts, be quiet, no matter how anxious he was, he would not lack these ten minutes, and think about it clearly.

After putting down the phone, Li Xin thought: The information lag in the local market is already obvious, unless the prices of the two foreign trading markets rise sharply today to recover the losses of yesterday and this morning. Otherwise, the price of cane sugar on the Jiangnan Commodity Exchange will fall sharply tomorrow.

But is there a reason for a sharp rise?

For the two reasons that Mr. Zhao said just now, Li Xin thought that it would not be groundless.

First of all, look at imported sugar, this year's sugar supply and demand gap is so large, sugar prices are at a historical high, in the current environment of curbing excessive price rise and controlling inflation, it is a natural choice to continue to increase the amount of imported sugar to fill the gap between supply and demand.

Looking at the sugar coming in from abnormal channels, from the perspective of historical data, the domestic sugar price is much higher than the international sugar price.

Taking the same period last year as an example, the domestic price of about 4,200 yuan, this kind of sugar has huge profit margins after it comes in.

This year's domestic sugar price is nearly 1,400 yuan higher than last year's, such a huge profit temptation, will it lead to more of this type of sugar?

Neither of these two data can be accurately counted at present, and Li Xin quickly estimated it with a simple approximate algorithm:

In the first case, if the amount of imported sugar can fill 70 to 80 percent of the gap between supply and demand (which is very possible in Li Xin's view), then the domestic sugar price this year is nearly 1,400 yuan higher than that of the same period last year, and how much will it fall?

This is still without considering the amount of sugar coming in from an unknown number of abnormal channels, the reasonable increase is 700 yuan, and if both factors are taken into account, the reasonable increase should be lower.

In the second case, if the amount of imported sugar can completely fill the gap between supply and demand, then the reasonable increase will probably not exceed 400 yuan, which already includes the rise in various costs and market speculation.

This increase is also made without taking into account the unknown amount of sugar coming in from abnormal channels, if you assume that the amount of this kind of sugar is more this year, and both factors are taken into account, the reasonable increase may only be 200 yuan, or even lower!

As soon as this conclusion was estimated, Li Xin himself was startled, his palms were a little sweaty, as if he could hear his own heartbeat!

At present, the sugar price of more than 5,500 yuan is standing on the edge of a huge cliff, and there is an abyss below!

Without hesitation, Li Xin dialed Zhang Jin's phone again and asked, "What is the buying and selling price of the T609 contract now?"

Zhang Jin said on the phone: "The buying price is 5575, and the selling price is 5576." ”

Li Xin thought that if he went short immediately, the position could be enlarged a little, at least two-thirds of the position, that is, 120 lots. This morning, the decline of more than 80 yuan in the two trading markets outside the province has left a large margin of safety for themselves to short at the current price.

Enter 120 lots at a time, and in order to ensure that it can be fully traded, you can place an order at two price gaps.

So Li Xin said: "Give me an order, T609 contract, sell and open a position of 120 lots, the price is 5573." ”

Zhang Jin had never seen Li Xin open such a large number of positions at one time, and he was afraid that he heard it wrong, so he asked: "T609 contract, sell and open 120 lots, the price is 5573?"

Li Xin said: "Yes!"

Zhang Jin said: "Okay, I'll report it right away." ”

Then, Zhang Jin replied on the phone: "It has been completely sold, the transaction price is 5575 and 5574, and the estimated average transaction price is a little more than 5574." ”

Li Xin said: "Okay, it's okay, you can help me calculate the average price of the transaction, and I will go over to sign it in the afternoon." ”

Putting down the phone, Li Xin took a deep breath, stood up and calmed down by the window. "The list is closed, so let's wait and see the results! This list is going to be put on a long-term basis!" Li Xin thought to herself.

After calming down, he thought that he should immediately talk to Director Luan about the decline in market prices outside the province, so he immediately turned around and came to the next office.

Director Luan was on the phone, and Li Xin was sitting on the sofa waiting for him. A few minutes later, Director Luan answered the phone, and Li Xin immediately said to him: "Director, the price of cane sugar in the Guidong Cane Sugar Trading Center and the Nanhai Commodity Exchange has dropped by nearly 80 yuan this morning, which is somewhat abnormal, and there is news that the amount of imported sugar and sugar coming in through abnormal channels has increased a lot more than expected, and it should be reported to Mr. Wu immediately." ”

After listening to this, Director Luan turned his eyes twice, patted the information on the table, and said impatiently: "I have a lot of things on my hands now, so I have time! I have to go out to do errands in a while, you can just go and say no to him." ”

Director Luan's disdainful demeanor and tone were like a scoop of cold water, extinguishing Li Xin's enthusiasm. He thought with some chills: Is there anything bigger than this?

He stood up silently and went out to find Wu Bin.

The door of the general manager's office was open, and Wu Bin sat behind the desk, as if reading a document. Li Xin stood at the door, raised his hand and knocked on the door, Mr. Wu raised his head and said, "Xiao Li, is there something wrong?"

Li Xin walked in the door and said: "Mr. Wu, just now I called the Guidong Cane Sugar Trading Center and the Nanhai Commodity Exchange, the price of cane sugar in these two places fell by nearly 80 yuan this morning, and the price of cane sugar on our commodity exchange fell slightly yesterday, and it fell by nearly 50 yuan this morning. I asked Mr. Zhao of the South China Sea Commodity Exchange, who estimated that the reason why prices began to fall was that the amount of imported sugar might increase, and that a lot of sugar from irregular channels had recently been seized along the coast, and it was estimated that there would be a lot of this type of sugar. ”

The reason why Li Xin only said the data, and did not say his own opinions and judgments, is because he is just a small staff in the office, and it is not his turn to say these data to Wu Bin face to face, and it should be reported to Wu Bin by the head of the department or Xia Xiaona, the secretary of the general manager.

As for the opinions and suggestions on the sales of sucrose, they are not related to Li Xin's department, and should be put forward by the general managers and business managers of each branch.

Coupled with the cold reception he encountered from his boss just now, he was a little disheartened, he didn't want to meddle anymore, he just wanted to do his duty and tell Wu Bin the news.

After listening to this, Wu Bin's face changed slightly, and he said, "I read yesterday's fax, and it fell by 80 yuan this morning?"

Li Xin said: "Yes, that's the news just now. ”

Wu Bin pondered for a while and said, "Okay, I know!"

Li Xin saw that Wu Bin didn't ask anything anymore, so he took his leave. As soon as she returned to the office and sat down, Xia Xiaona came in. Li Xin said to her: "The price of sugar on the two exchanges outside the province fell by nearly 80 yuan this morning!"

Xia Xiaona put down the bag on her shoulder, stroked the long hair of the shawl back with both hands, and when she heard this, she stopped her movements in surprise, looked at Li Xin with wide eyes, and asked, "Fallen so much again?"

Li Xin nodded and said, "Yes, I told Director Luan about this, and he asked me to report to Mr. Wu, I just came out of Mr. Wu's office." ”

Xia Xiaona asked, "Then what did Mr. Wu say?"

Li Xin said: "He didn't say anything. ”

Xia Xiaona said: "That's not enough, it's time to report, and it's none of our business how the leader decides." ”

After Li Xin went out, Wu Bin couldn't help but feel nervous in his heart.

The news just now made the huge sucrose inventory in the hands of several branches suddenly turn into a boulder and press on his heart.

Although the price of sugar has been rising slightly these days, after careful calculation, the current price is still far from where it should be.

He really hopes that the price will be as Tang Jianhua described, but the current reality is too far away from the assumption. By the time the second half of the year comes, the price should rise, but it will be a few months away, which is really a long time.

I am also optimistic about the price of sugar in the second half of the year, but I am afraid that if something goes wrong during this period.

Whatever you are afraid of, Li Xin seems to be careless about what he said.

Thinking of this, he picked up the phone and called the three branch managers into his office, he wanted to hear their opinions.