The next morning, Hou Gui went to Morningstar Futures.

He remembers that the last time he attended the company's Shanghai Copper Futures Seminar, the guests on the field introduced the concept of hedging, saying that this operation can prevent the risk of large fluctuations in the price of products or raw materials.

At that time, he was very interested in this thing, but then he was busy with production and forgot about it. In retrospect, perhaps this was a viable way to solve the raw material problem.

So today he came to the futures company and wanted to find someone to learn more about this information.

After listening to his introduction and knowing that Hou Gui was the director of the cable factory, the clerk knew that this was a potential big customer, so he brought him into Yuan Jie's office.

When he came in, Li Xin was talking to Yuan Jie about the trend of copper prices.

After the clerk briefly introduced him to Yuan Jie, he went out.

As soon as Hou Gui sat down, he said to Li Xin, "Eh, aren't you from the Southern Group?"

Yuan Jie looked at the two of them and asked, "Director Hou, do you know each other?"

Li Xin asked Hou Gui with a confused expression: "Have we met?"

Hou Gui said: "You may not have seen me, but I have seen you." You're in Gao Hui's office, right? I went to your company yesterday to buy goods. ”

Li Xin suddenly realized and said, "Oh, you are Gao Hui's customer, no wonder." ”

Hou Gui asked: "What, your company also does Shanghai copper futures?"

Li Xin said: "No, just to learn some relevant information." ”

Hou Gui said: "If you do futures, you should have a great advantage, and you should know the copper price best." ”

Li Xin said: "What we see also has limitations, so we have to often come to Vice President Yuan and their futures company to talk more, and their data here is relatively rich." ”

Hou Gui stared at Li Xin and asked all kinds of questions about futures, but Yuan Jie, as the master, was left aside and couldn't speak.

Seeing that Hou Gui was almost asked, Yuan Jie said, "Director Hou, what kind of information do you want to know today?"

Hou Gui smiled apologetically and said, "I'm sorry." I mainly want to know how to do hedging?"

Yuan Jie said nonchalantly: "It's okay. You're a cable factory, and copper is the raw material, right?"

Hou Gui said: "Yes. ”

Yuan Jie asked: "Director Hou, tell me in detail, what kind of considerations did you think of hedging?" ”

Hou Gui said: "My headache now is that the price of copper in the market has risen relatively fast, often exceeding our expectations, making us very passive." Isn't it said that hedging prevents fluctuations in raw material prices? I just want to know what producers like us can do. ”

Yuan Jie said: "To put it simply, you should buy in a situation like this. In other words, if you think that the price of copper will continue to rise, then buy the corresponding amount of copper in the futures market first to prevent the risk of rising prices. After your raw material copper is actually in hand, sell the position you bought in the futures market. In this way, you can hedge against the risk of rising prices in the period before you actually purchase the raw material. ”

Hou Gui seemed to understand a little, and asked: "After my raw materials are in hand, do I have to sell my futures position?"

Yuan Jie said: "Of course, these positions are to hedge the risk of uncertain raw material prices, since the raw materials have been bought, the price has been determined, there is no need to keep futures positions." ”

Hou Gui nodded and said, "Oh, that's it, I seem to understand!"

Yuan Jie explained: "It is important to note that the premise of buying hedging is to predict that the price will rise in the future. If the price falls in the future, such an operation will bring losses. ”

Hou Gui asked: "In other words, if I am not sure whether the price of copper will rise or fall in the future, then I can't buy the raw materials I want to buy in the futures market to hedge the value, right?"

Yuan Jie said: "Yes. Do you think, if the price of copper is going to fall, wouldn't the cost of raw materials be lower if you buy it later? Why do you want to do more in the futures market? Otherwise, the cost you save on raw materials will be lost in your futures position. ”

Hou Gui said happily: "Now I understand everything. Eh, this stuff is very useful!"

Yuan Jie smiled: "It's very useful, otherwise why would hedging be so popular." ”

Hou Gui pondered carefully, and said with some concern: "This thing is good and easy to use, but if the price trend is wrong, it is also very troublesome, right?"

Yuan Jie said: "Director Hou, what you said is very right, whether it is speculation or hedging operations in the futures market, the core is the accuracy of price prediction. If the judgment is right, it will be like a tiger with wings, and if the judgment is wrong, it will be chaotic. ”

Hou Gui said to Li Xin: "Actually, you Southern Group can also sell copper in the futures market, right?"

Li Xin said: "That's right. However, there is not much difference between the current and current prices, and the delivery warehouse is far away from more than 2,000 kilometers. Maybe it's not as high as Lao Huang's price in the warehouse, so they won't consider this step at all. ”

Hou Gui thought about it, now Huang Hongliang is more bull X, and the goods in his hands have never been sold. His angle is completely different from his own, he was forced to lose his tricks by the price increase, so he came to the futures market to find a way, but he Huang Hongliang wished that the price would rise as high as possible.

Hou Gui asked: "How do you think the copper price will go in the future?"

Li Xin said: "The short-term is bullish, and I am really unsure in the long term." ”

Hou Gui immediately asked, "Why do you think it's bullish in the short term?"

Li Xin smiled: "That's what you told me, Director Hou." ”

Hou Gui said suspiciously, "When did I tell you?"

Li Xin explained with a smile: "Don't mind, Director Hou, I'll make a joke with you." I think it's bullish in the short term, and it's also because users like you are in a hurry to buy copper, so I think copper prices are bullish in the short term. ”

Hou Gui smiled and said, "Are you talking about me?"

Yuan Jie asked: "Director Hou, are you going to operate it recently? If so, you have to hurry up and open an account, the procedures for opening an account for a legal person are relatively complicated, so don't delay your opening of a position at that time." ”

Hou Gui said: "I'll think about it first, the main reason for coming here today is to consult first, go back and digest and digest it, this is a new thing for us, and we can't play it for a while." ”

Yuan Jie said: "No problem, just come to me directly if you have something." ”

Hou Gui asked: "If our factory wants to buy to maintain value, how much is more appropriate to buy?"

Yuan Jie said: "This still depends on your specific judgment, if you are very confident in the judgment of rising prices, the best hedging plan is that the futures position and the amount of raw materials to be bought are completely equal, so that the hedging effect is the best." In other cases, there are also hedging schemes where the futures position only accounts for tens of percent of the amount of raw materials to be bought. ”

Hou Gui thought to himself, it seems that this matter is still difficult, not to mention that he can't take out so many idle funds to completely preserve the value of raw materials, even if he only preserves the value of some raw materials, there is still a problem of price prediction. If you can see it accurately, of course, it is a good thing, and you can reduce the cost of raw materials every time.

But if the price trend prediction is wrong, as Yuan Jie said, the price of copper does not rise, but falls, then the futures bought will not be lost?

Yuan Jie saw that Hou Gui didn't speak, so he said: "Hedging is a new problem for all manufacturers, Director Hou, you are not familiar with the trading rules at the beginning, don't take too big a step, try to do it in small quantities, so it is not a big problem." ”

Hou Gui nodded and said, "Of course." ”

Li Xin asked: "Director Hou, you are a big customer of copper, from your point of view, do you think the current copper price is reasonable, how much will it rise?"

Hou Gui said without thinking: "From my point of view, this copper price is definitely unreasonable, it should not rise at all, it should fall!"

When Li Xin heard this, she smiled helplessly.

Hou Gui saw Li Xin's expression and said, "This is the truth, don't think I'm fooling you." Isn't it an exaggeration to say that the price of copper has more than tripled in three years? If it continues to rise, the increase in cable prices cannot keep up with the price of copper, and many factories will have to close their doors. ”

Li Xin was right to think about it, it was okay to ask Huang Hongliang this question, but asking Hou Gui was tantamount to asking in vain, of course he hoped that the lower the copper price, the better.

Hou Gui also reacted at this time, and said, "You should know this question better than me, why did you ask me instead." I also want to ask you, your company's goods keep rising in price, when will it be a head?"

Li Xin smiled and waved his hand and said: "You can be regarded as asking a layman, I have really not been in contact with this thing for a long time, and it is basically at the level of a rookie, you have to discuss this with Huang Hongliang." ”

Hou Gui shook his head and said, "He won't discuss the copper price with me, he will only send a price adjustment notice to the customer." ”

When Yuan Jie heard this, he smiled and said: "You two are really narrow, one is a natural short, looking forward to the price increase, and the other is a natural long, looking forward to the price falling." Now Director Hou and they are all going to open an account with me, Mr. Li, do you also support my work, lobby the people of your company, and also open an account? Anyway, sooner or later you have to do this business. ”

Li Xin said: "It's a big deal whether the company can open an account or not, and they have to think it through themselves, anyway, my own account has been opened, so it can be regarded as supporting you." ”

Hou Gui listened to Yuan Jie's words and asked Li Xin: "Mr. Li, what position do you have on Huang Hongliang's side?"

Li Xin smiled and said to Yuan Jie: "Look, I told you not to call Mr. Li, but you didn't listen, and now Director Hou misunderstood, right?"

Then he turned around and said to Hou Gui: "Director Hou, Vice President Yuan is joking with me, I'm not a boss, just a small office clerk, just call me Li Xin." ”