Wang Minghui asked, "What is pro-cyclicality?"

Li Xin said: "This ranking is more complicated to explain carefully, I understand it roughly means that when the profits of a manufacturing industry are better, the funds invested in this industry will increase, and when the profits of this industry tend to be sluggish, the funds invested in this industry will decrease, which is roughly the meaning." Take the Southern Group we just mentioned as an example, during the period when the non-ferrous metal industry is becoming more and more profitable, there will be many enterprises investing in this industry, and the amount of investment will increase significantly. And like the current situation, when the non-ferrous metal industry is relatively sluggish, there will be less and less funds to invest in this industry, just like now, there is no one in the Southern Group who fell to this position to buy. And this situation was very unimaginable a few years ago. ”

"Makes sense. Wang Minghui nodded.

Li Xin continued the topic just now: "As we said just now, manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate are the troika that drives investment. In the current situation, investment in manufacturing and real estate has generally stabilized, or even decreased slightly. In this context, infrastructure investment has become the vanguard of the economy. The article gives a very specific data, in November this year, that is, the past month, the number of domestic excavator sales increased by 42.4% compared with the same period last year. This is a record increase. The blowout of excavator sales shows that infrastructure investment is obviously accelerating and the economy is accelerating recovery. I think the point in this article is very reasonable, which is consistent with the reason I bought the stock of Liugong Machinery on November 10th. We talked about it at the time, right?"

"Yes. Wang Haoqiang also nodded and said.

"And the trend of Liugong Machinery's stock after several consecutive price limits after November 10 basically confirms this article and my opinion. The sharp rise in the excavator index must indicate that the economy has begun to recover gradually. In the case that the economy has begun to recover gradually and will get better and better in the future, the sales of excavators will only increase. This, in turn, will promote the performance of Liugong Machinery stock to get better and better, so in this case, the current decline of this stock does not have to worry too much, and it will still be a general trend in the future. ”

Wang Minghui said: "It should be seen this way. ”

"But why are the other three stocks of you still rising well, that is, the stock price of Liugong Machinery has fallen so badly?" Zhang Shaohui asked.

Li Xin said: "Actually, I can't say how bad the fall was, didn't you just say it? The current price has risen by 2 yuan and 5 compared with the low point on November 7? Also, isn't the current stock price of Wang Minghui's Sanjiang Holdings still above the 60 moving average? The stock price of Jingxi Coal Industry is also above the 60 moving average. These circumstances can also show that the market is not as bad as you think. ”

Zhang Shaohui said: "Alas, Li Xin, you can really say that the stock of Jingxi Coal Industry is still standing on the 60 moving average, so let's not discuss it for the time being." Let's just talk about the stock of Sanjiang Holdings, do you know what its closing price was yesterday?"

"I know. ”

"The stock closed at $18.98 yesterday and the 60 moving average yesterday was $18.97, just a penny short. The stock closed today at $19.02, while today's 60-day moving average was $18.89, and today's close is just one step away from falling below the 60-day EMA. Judging from this trend, the price of this stock will fall below the support of the 60 moving average in the next one or two trading days, and in this case, you still use this stock to show that the market trend is not so bad, I am really speechless!"

Li Xin smiled: "It's not the same as if you are about to fall through and those who have already fallen." ”

"I find you to be a very good person who makes excuses for your own opinions, and these reasons are high-sounding, but many times things are completely different from what you are told. Take the stock of Liugong Machinery as an example, many times when you say that it will continue to rise, it often turns around and falls!" Zhang Shaohui is tired of Li Xin's flickering, he has now made up his mind, after starting trading tomorrow, as long as this stock has no obvious upward trend, he will sell it immediately.

Having said this, Li Xin remembered the last time Zhang Shaohui complained that his bullish views affected his intraday operation, and said: "Everyone is here to discuss with each other, naturally they can say whatever they have, and no one dares to guarantee that their views will be right." When to buy and when to sell, it's good to be your own master. ”

When Wang Minghui heard this, he stood up and said, "Let's go, it's not too early, it's time to go home." He listened to Li Xin and Zhang Shaohui have their own opinions, and was worried that the two of them would stand up against the wheat again.

Li Xin saw Wang Minghui's good intentions, and also stood up and said: "That's it, it's past 4 o'clock, it's time to go, let's talk about it tomorrow." He has gradually figured it out now, and he won't worry too much about Zhang Shaohui. And he himself feels that it is a good thing to have such a sharp opinion as Zhang Shaohui to motivate him, which can make him think more carefully about the shortcomings.

Day 2, Thursday, December 25.

The broad market index opened slightly higher at 1,865 points and then gradually fluctuated lower, and by about 13:40 in the afternoon, the broad market index had fallen to about 1,840 points.

This is already lower than all the closing points since November 12, and it looks like an imminent acceleration of the decline on the chart.

It's really so coincidental, the daily K-line chart and tick line of Liugong Machinery's stock price trend are the same as the broader market index.

When the market index gradually fell to the 1840 point line, Liugong Machinery's share price also fell to 9.93 yuan, down 2.07%.

Zhang Shaohui saw that the situation was not right, and immediately sold all the Liugong Machinery shares he held in this position.

After he just sold the stock in his hand, the share price of Liugong Machinery came to another wave of decline, and the lowest point once fell to 9.80 yuan, a decline of 3.06%. Although after some shocks before the close, the decline narrowed a little, and the price closed at 9.91 yuan, a decline of 2.27%. However, this close is the lowest since November 11, and judging by the lower and lower candlestick chart, the decline will continue. So after the market closed, Zhang Shaohui said to the other three people: "I think this momentum will continue to fall, I have already sold the stocks in my hand, you should be careful." ”

Li Xin thought that Zhang Shaohui's bearish opinion yesterday was just talking, but he didn't expect him to really sell the stock in his hand, so he asked: "At what price did you sell it?"

"Sold for $9.93. ”

"All sold?"

"Of course. ”

"It's a bit of a shame to sell at this price. Li Xin was very sorry, he didn't understand why Zhang Shaohui sold stocks at a relatively low position every time. In Li Xin's view, Zhang Shaohui just reversed, and the positions he sold were all good points for buying.

Zhang Shaohui said: "Compared with 12.78 yuan on December 8, 9.93 yuan is of course much lower now. But now that the stock is falling, if you don't sell it now, it will fall even lower in the future. ”

"How so?" asked Li Xin.

"You don't see that the stock has crossed below the 20-day moving average since December 22nd, and as of today, the candlestick chart has closed lower and lower, and the 5-day and 10-day moving averages have accelerated downward. In this case, it is not too late to sell, otherwise it will fall even lower in the future. Also, the same result is seen from the broader market index, and the closing point of the daily K-line is getting lower and lower day by day. Since yesterday, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages of the broad market index have crossed below the 20-day moving average. Today, the 5-day moving average has fallen further below the 60-day EMA. Over time, I estimate that in the next two or three trading days, the 10-day moving average will follow the 5-day moving average from top to bottom below the 60 moving average, and at that time the broader market index and stock prices will accelerate downward. ”

Judging from the graphics, what Zhang Shaohui said was not wrong at all, and Li Xin couldn't find any reason to refute him for a while, so he didn't squeak.

Zhang Shaohui saw that Li Xin didn't speak, so he asked: "Are you really not afraid that the market index will fall back to 1664 points?"

"How can you not be afraid? It's just that I don't think that's very likely. ”

Zhang Shaohui then asked: "Let's not talk about whether there is such a possibility, let me ask you, if the market index really falls to 1664 points again, will you sell the stocks in your hand?"

"If it just fell to 1664 points, I definitely wouldn't sell. ”

"Why?"

"The reason is very simple, 1664 points is a rather special point, if the market index returns to that position, the probability of forming a double bottom is far greater than the possibility of falling below 1664 points to continue down. Therefore, if the stock price of the large-cap index and individual stocks really returns to the low point of November 7, and does not effectively fall below that low, it really cannot be easily sold, and it is necessary to prevent the large-market index and stock price from forming a sharp upward rebound at the bottom of W in this place. ”

Zhang Shaohui smiled helplessly: "Alas, what Wang Minghui said is really right, you are really a dead bull." ”

Li Xin said: "If you see it, you have to stick to it, it's a big deal that after the stock price and index effectively broke through the low point on November 7, the loss of 10%~15% will be cut off from the market." ”