Li Xin said: "How come, what am I fooling you for." You don't know that my own long orders have been closed below 60,000 yuan, how can I continue to go long in this position? I am now confused about the price of futures copper, and I dare not go long or short. But I think what you just said makes a lot of sense, if there is no possibility that copper prices will continue to rise sharply, you really don't need to do that buy hedge. ”

Hou Gui asked: "Then do you think it will fall sharply? and it will fall back to the level of 30,000 or 40,000 yuan?"

Li Xin thought for a while and said: "I can't say for sure, but I always feel that this round of copper prices has risen because of great changes in the supply and demand structure, you see it has risen from 40,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan now, even if this increase has a lot of moisture, then it has fallen by half to about 60,000 yuan, I think it is already very low." ”

Hou Gui sighed: "If that's the case, from 77,000 yuan to 60,000 yuan, the decline is 17,000 yuan, this is also amazing!"

Li Xin said: "I'm guessing wildly, and I don't know if it will fall back so much." I mean, even if it falls to 60,000 yuan, the price of copper is still very high compared to a year ago or two years ago, right? But in the process, isn't your raw material cost gradually decreasing? This is a good thing for you. ”

Hou Gui said: "Of course, I mean that if the 17,000 yuan drop is really there, it would be a pity to miss it." ”

Li Xin said: "Do you want to sell short on futures copper? This is the opposite of the rhythm of your raw material procurement, I don't dare to short on futures copper, I advise you not to do this, if you can't see it, the risk is too great." ”

Hou Gui said: "That's what I said, I can't get much money to buy hedging, how can I have the funds to sell short! ”

What Hou Gui said makes sense, but the premise of all this is that the judgment of falling copper prices is correct. At this time, Li Xin could not make a clear judgment on the future trend of copper prices, and in this case, even he did not dare to short, so dare to suggest selling hedging to Jin Changxing?

What's more, there is also the example of Liu Zhongzhou in front of him, Liu Zhongzhou lost hundreds of millions of dollars because he miscalculated the trend of copper prices last year, and sold hedging on copper futures, and in the end he didn't even protect his position as chairman. Of course, Hou Gui didn't know the details of this, and if he knew this, he wouldn't have said that.

Li Xin wouldn't even explain these things to him: "That's what I said, but the water here is too deep, what to do and they decide for themselves, I don't dare to give them such an idea." ”

Hou Gui said: "That's okay, I have time to contact more." With that, he hung up.

Regarding the profitability of the new mine that the group had just acquired, a huge doubt gradually rose in Li Xin's heart at this time. After talking to Hou Gui on the phone, he immediately called Gao Hui again.

"Manager Gao, is copper good to sell recently?" asked Li Xin.

Gao Hui said: "It's easy to sell, but the price is a little uncertain." ”

Li Xin said: "I think the fluctuation space of this futures price is also relatively large, there are four or five thousand yuan back and forth, is it the same over there?"

Gao Hui said: "That's the problem, now sometimes it's just for the volume, no matter what the price, the goods will be shipped first." ”

Li Xin said: "Volume? No, is the profit so thin? I've never heard you say that you ship for the sake of volume." ”

Gao Hui said: "The profit is still there, but it can't be compared with last year." Last year, at the end of each month, I often regretted that the goods were sold too quickly at the beginning of the month, and if I had left it until the end of the month, the price would be better and the profit would be higher. But now it's different, the copper price fluctuates by four or five thousand yuan within a month, and the goods purchased at the beginning of the month are sold at the end of the month, and the price may be upside down.

Li Xin asked in disbelief: "No, the copper price is still around 78,000 yuan, is the profit so low?"

Gao Hui said: "You are really, you think we are a smelter, we are a sales company, and the shipping price must be higher than the purchase price of the smelter to have profits." ”

Li Xin said: "That's right. Eh, isn't your sales company selling copper ore from the new mine right now, and do you know how profitable these copper ore sales are?"

Gao Hui said: "I don't know about this, it's someone else who is selling." ”

Li Xin said: "How does the profit level compare with the profit from the sale of copper ore in the original mine? ”

Gao Hui said: "There must be profits, but there is definitely no way to compare with the sales profits of the original copper mine. It turns out that the mine was bought a few years ago, and at that time the price of a ton of copper ore was only what was the price of this copper mine, and what was the cost of a ton of copper ore, right?"

Li Xin said: "Of course, the question is whether there is a detailed data comparison? If there is a detailed data comparison, it will be clearer." ”

Gao Hui persuaded: "I think you better don't worry about that, so as not to make trouble for yourself, it's not that you don't know what the Southern Group is doing, they are all secretive about these data, isn't it boring for you to inquire about this? To tell you the truth, it turns out that I want to ask what the cost of tons of copper in the smelter is." But when I went to ask Mr. Huang, Mr. Huang always talked about him left and right, but he didn't say anything, and asked me to ask Vice President Xue. How dare I call and ask Vice President Xue directly? Later, I came up with an idea and called the chief of the procurement section of the smelter, guess what he would ask me after listening to my call?"

Li Xin said, "Why did he ask you?"

Gao Hui said: "He asked me who I was, and what did he want to inquire about?"

Li Xin said: "Then you say that you are an insider of the sales company and want to ask about this data." ”

Gao Hui said: "That's how I answered him. But he said that he didn't need to provide me with these data, these data are confidential, if your sales company wants to know about these situations, let your general manager Huang go directly to our director Xue. ”

Li Xin said: "Is this so? This is not a military secret, is it so secret?"

Gao Hui said: "Eh, that's what people think, what you think you can inquire about casually, people think it should be kept secret, so they won't tell you." Since then, I've been completely dead to this heart, I listen to the data they want to tell me, and I don't ask at all if they don't want to tell me. Including the copper we are selling now, what is the purchase price, Mr. Huang is willing to tell me that I will listen, if he doesn't say it, I will never ask, what price he asks me to sell, I will sell at whatever price, so as not to find uncomfortable. If you ask what is the profit per ton of copper ore in a new mine, this question is the same as what I want to ask about the cost of a ton of copper in a smelter. What's the use of just knowing the selling price per ton of ore in the mine? How are the mine purchase costs, mining costs, and various financial expenses included here apportioned, and if he doesn't tell you these data, how can you possibly know? If you don't know these data, you won't be able to make any profits in the middle. It's like the sales price of a smelter, so what's the point?"

Li Xin said: "Since that's the case, then I won't ask." How do you think copper prices will go in the future?"

Gao Hui said: "I don't know, don't ask me about this." ”

Li Xin said: "Damn! You are the business manager of the sales company, don't ask who you ask? Okay, let me change the question, if the price of copper falls to 60,000 yuan a ton in the future, will there be any profit from buying the copper ore produced by this mine?"

Gao Hui said: "Then you still need to ask, do you think it will still be profitable?"

Li Xin said: "Isn't the investment of more than 2 billion yuan very risky?"

Gao Hui said: "You kid just don't have a long memory, you always care about what these things do, what does it have to do with you, aren't you afraid that they will give you little shoes in the future? Since they dare to buy in this position, they must think that the price of copper will continue to rise in the future. ”

Gao Hui's words reminded Li Xin of the cold reception he suffered in front of Jin Changxing, and he sighed: "Yes, no matter what these idle things are, let's meet and talk another day." ”

But having said that, the huge mystery in Li Xin's heart made him restless. Because similar things not only involve whether the mine of the Southern Group will be profitable in the future, but also involves Li Xin's own investment of tens of millions of yuan in the western copper industry.

If Western Copper is facing the same situation, then it will have to reconsider the profitability of its investment, otherwise it may face the result of being trapped in the future. So after he put down Gao Hui's phone, he immediately called the company of Western Copper to consult with the secretary of the board of directors about relevant matters.

"Hey, hello, is it Western Copper Co., Ltd.? I'll look for the secretary of the board. Li Xin asked.

"I am, what's the matter with you?"

"That's right, I'm an investor in your company, I hold shares in your company, I want to ask, has your company implemented a plan to acquire mines on a large scale in the past six months?"

"As far as I know, no. ”

Li Xin asked uneasily, "Is it really not?"

"No, if there is an investment plan like this, we will announce it to investors on the company's website, and we will also see the corresponding announcement in the stock market software. ”