Chapter 311: Has the Copper Price Peaked?

Yuan Jie said: "I think I'm good to her, usually you are not at home, I endure all the stumbles, but you will only blame me." ”

Han Gang thought that he couldn't help the family outside all day, and he didn't have the confidence to speak: "Okay, you think it's good for your mother to help you take care of the child, then let her come." But let's say it first, in a month or two, if my mother misses the child, I will pick her up and live there for a while, and then you don't let her look at her face again. ”

Yuan Jie said: "Look what you say, what do you mean by me, what do you tell me to show her face? Did I say I won't let her come to live? When you're not at home, you don't know who looks at who's face!"

Han Gang said: "I won't quarrel with you, anyway, the day after tomorrow, my mother and I are gone, and you can do it yourself when the time comes." ”

Han Gang rarely comes back, but every time he comes back, he has a big head when he thinks of washing diapers and coaxing children. In his opinion, these things are the most cumbersome things in the world, and the day after tomorrow, he and his mother will leave and throw this stall to Yuan Jie, he thought that Yuan Jie would retreat when the time came, thinking that it was not easy for his mother to help her take care of the child, so he left such a sentence.

But what he didn't expect was that what Yuan Jie thought in his heart was completely different from what he thought. Yuan Jie thought to himself: Hmph, this is not difficult for me, out of sight and out of mind, it's good that you are not there.

But she only dared to think about it in her heart, but she didn't dare to say it.

In contrast, it was Han Gang, who is usually more cowardly, who said more stubbornly.

In the office of the director of the cable factory, Hou Gui was smoking with a frown. The jump up and down of copper prices also made him at a loss, pondering for a long time, he called Zhu Fangzheng, the head of the sales section, and instructed: "The pace of raw material copper procurement next month will be slowed down a little, and a third will be purchased at the beginning of the month, and the rest will be said later." ”

Zhu Fangzheng asked: "Buy one-third first, what if the remaining ones are out of stock? Or buy them back at one time." ”

Hou Gui said: "Now that the price fluctuates so much, I don't think it should be out of stock." It's easy to buy them all at once, but have you forgotten what happened last month? At the beginning of the month, when we bought it, it was more than 8,000 yuan, and by the end of the month, how much did it fall? It fell to 77,000 yuan, and the difference in price was nearly 4,000 yuan a ton! Last month, the cost of raw materials alone was hundreds of thousands of yuan more.

Zhu Fangzheng said: "Is that just the first, middle, and second half of the purchase each?"

Hou Gui said: "It's almost, that's roughly what it means, but it depends on the changes in prices." ”

Zhu Fangzheng said: "Factory director, but I'm afraid that by the end of the month, the price of copper will rise again, and the cost will still have to be spread by hundreds of thousands?"

Hou Gui said helplessly: "Alas, this is also no way, whether the price of copper will rise or fall, no one can say, I will buy it three times, and I can buy it at the average price of the month!"

Zhu Fangzheng said: "Okay, then I'll buy a third of it next week." ”

After Zhu Fangzheng went out, Hou Gui picked up the phone and called Li Xin again: "What have you been busy with lately? I haven't seen you come to the futures company for a long time." ”

Li Xin said: "It's not just these things in the company, and now I don't have a position in my hand, so I didn't go there." ”

Hou Gui said: "Recently, the price of copper has gone up and down, what do you think?"

Li Xin said: "I don't understand either, to be honest, I don't have any positions in my hands, so I really don't pay too much attention to these, anyway, I don't dare to make orders during this time." What about you, what do you think?"

Hou Gui said: "Didn't I come to ask you when I had no choice?"

Li Xin asked, "Are you still doing buy hedging?"

Hou Gui said: "Now that the price of copper is jumping up and down, I can't even go to your southern group every month to buy raw materials, whether I should buy them back at one time, where do I dare to enter the futures market." ”

Li Xin said: "On the price problem, you might as well ask Lao Huang of the sales company, he may be clearer." ”

Hou Gui said: "I have already asked him, and he can't tell why." I look at him like that, and I seem to be a little confused by the price. ”

Li Xin said: "Isn't it a good thing for you that the price of copper is falling now? You can just buy the dip, and you don't have to hedge in the futures market." ”

Hou Gui said helplessly: "That's what I did, but the problem is that no one knows where the low point is, let's just say last month, the highest copper price was more than 84,000 yuan, and when it fell below 81,000 yuan, I bought it all, thinking that it had pulled back more than 3,000 yuan and was basically in place, but I didn't expect it to fall to 77,000 yuan at the end of the month, you said that I still bought nearly 4,000 yuan more expensive in the middle?" This is not a small number, plus the price of the cable fluctuates greatly, last month I calculated the account, hard work for a month did not make much money, it is not cost-effective at all, if this month is like this, I will lose a lot!"

Li Xin said with deep feelings: "It's also a big fluctuation, if you can't step on the rhythm, you really can't bear it." But then again, if you are on the spot, buy low and sell high a few times, the profit will be quite considerable in a month. ”

Hou Gui said: "What you said is the operation of the futures market, I am purchasing raw materials for production, but I can't do this." ”

Li Xin smiled: "I don't understand you either, so I have to look at the graphics and speak." ”

Hou Gui asked: "Do you say that the price of copper has peaked?"

Li Xin said: "It's peaked? Why do you say that, do you want to go short?"

Hou Gui said: "How dare I go short, I mean that if the copper price peaks, there is no possibility of a sharp rise, and I don't have to do this buy hedging." To be honest, this thing hurts the spirit, and if it doesn't bring in profit, isn't it redundant?"

Li Xin said: "The truth is this, if it peaks, the price will no longer be in an upward channel, and the point of buying hedging is not much, but the question is why do you say that it has peaked?"

Hou Gui said: "In fact, the price of copper has risen this time, and I feel it the most. Your operation in the futures market, holding a position cannot be a long-term thing, right? After closing the position, the attention to it will naturally decrease, but I am different. We have to buy raw materials every month in the factory, and I am not weaker than anyone else about the price of copper, and the rise and fall of copper prices is related to our production costs at any time, and I almost have a position every month. ”

Li Xin said: "That's right. ”

Hou Gui continued: "After the copper price broke through 40,000 yuan, there was almost no decent pullback, and the large fluctuations in the back and forth for a long time like the recent one show that the differences within the bulls in this position are very serious, and there are many long people who take profits in this position." The bears obviously also saw the hesitation of the bulls and increased their selling in this position, which is why it caused the current situation of large fluctuations. Otherwise, if all parties are united, in the position of more than 84,000 yuan, they take advantage of the situation to continue to pull up another 5,000 yuan or even 10,000 yuan, will beat the short side to the ground, and the profit will be greater, don't you say?"

Li Xin's attention is now all on stocks, and he rarely pays attention to the fluctuations in futures copper prices. After listening to Hou Gui's words at this moment, he took a closer look at the graphics and found that what Hou Gui said was very reasonable, and the current trend of futures copper prices may really be a sign of peaking.

So he asked, "What you said seems to make sense, so what do you think will happen next?"

Hou Gui said: "Where do I know what it will do next, I just hope that it will not rise again, so that I can worry a lot." ”

Li Xin said to herself: "If it doesn't rise, it will be a little troublesome." ”

Hou Gui's words reminded Li Xin of the copper mine that Jin Changxing bought not long ago, when the copper price was at more than 82,000 yuan, almost at the highest level in history.

Although Li Xin does not know the specific details of Jin Changxing's purchase of this copper mine, everyone understands the truth that the rising tide lifts all boats, and the copper price is at the highest level in history, so the price of copper ore will naturally not be low, and it should be near the historical high.

In other words, the cost of buying this copper mine in Jinchangxing is near the highest point in history, and if the copper price continues to break through the high point of 84,000 yuan and rise, then there is still a lot of profit room for buying this copper mine.

But if, as Hou Gui said, the price of copper peaks, falling from 80,000 yuan to 70,000, 60,000, or even lower, then the profitability of this copper mine will be problematic.

In Li Xin's mind, the profit structure of the Southern Group has always been based on the mine price of the copper mine that Liu Zhongzhou bought. At that cost, even if the price of copper falls to 50,000 yuan, or even to 40,000 yuan, the copper produced by the Southern Group will have a lot of profits to be made.

But now the situation has changed, Jin Changxing spent more than 2 billion yuan to buy this new mine cost is quite high, with the copper produced by this mine to smelt copper, the price of each ton of copper must be more than 80,000 yuan to have a profit basis, if the price of copper falls below the 80,000 yuan mark, the price of the product is upside down.

Although this is only a rough estimate and there is still a lack of detailed data, this calculation still shocked Li Xin, and he forgot for a while that he was still talking to Hou Gui on the phone.

How did Hou Gui know that at this moment, so many questions flashed through Li Xin's mind, and he asked puzzledly: "How can there be trouble, what do you mean?

Hou Gui's question interrupted Li Xin's contemplation, and he quickly explained: "No, I'm talking about something else. ”

Hou Gui asked uneasily: "Are you still bullish?" Don't fool me, if you think the price of copper will continue to rise, you have to tell me." ”