Hou Gui returned to the computer and sat down, and after careful consideration, he decided to buy 20 tons of futures copper on the contract with the largest volume in two months.

The cost of raw materials and the price of cables in the factory he knows very well that the price of cables has been rising in recent years, according to the current situation, the price of cables in two months should not be lower than now.

According to the hedging theory that Yuan Jie just said, buying at this time is the best choice, as long as the price of raw materials is determined, you can lock in the profit of the product.

This was his first time trading futures, and looking at so many selection buttons and changing numbers on the computer, he trembled his fingers and followed the steps taught to him by the people at the futures company, and began to buy step by step.

He was afraid that he would press the wrong button and make the wrong direction of the transaction.

Finally completed the deal with great caution, and his palms were already full of sweat.

Before he had time to breathe a sigh of relief, his heart pounded when he looked at the floating profit and loss numbers in the position data that were red for a while and green for a while with the price.

In fact, at this point of position, under the current range of price changes, the profit and loss is three or four thousand yuan. This amount of money is not much, it shouldn't make Hou Gui worry, what really makes him feel uneasy is his mentality of wanting to win and being afraid of losing.

In this state of mind, coupled with his uncertain view of the market outlook, once he buys and opens a position, he subconsciously worries that copper prices will fall sharply in the future, disappointing his expectations.

Yuan Jie came out of the office and came to the customer trading area, and saw Hou Gui sitting at the computer in a daze, so he walked over and asked, "Director Hou, have you bought it?"

Hou Gui was interrupted by her words, and turned around and said, "I bought it." ”

Yuan Jie asked, "At what price did you buy it?"

Hou Gui pointed to the computer screen and said, "I bought it for more than 37,600." ”

Yuan Jie leaned over to take a closer look and said, "The amount I bought is not much." ”

Hou Gui said: "Just start doing it, try it slowly." ”

Yuan Jie said: "That's right, it's good to be careful"

Hou Gui asked, "I heard them say that you can also set a stop loss, right?"

Yuan Jie said: "Yes, the take-profit and stop-loss can be set, you have thought of the corresponding price data, after the start of the transaction every day, you can enter the price of the stop-loss into the computer." ”

After speaking, Yuan Jie pointed out to him on the computer how to set a stop-loss operation, and then asked him: "What is your stop-loss price?" Or I will help you enter it, and you can do it in the future. ”

Hou Gui asked worriedly: "Is it okay to leave it alone after entering the stop loss price?"

Yuan Jie said: "Yes, after you enter and set the stop loss price, the computer will automatically judge, as long as the price reaches the preset position, the system will automatically trade, no need to operate manually." But you have to enter the stop loss price once a day, because this data is invalidated every afternoon after the market closes. ”

Hou Gui asked again: "Then what is the appropriate stop loss price, is there a percentage?"

Yuan Jie said: "There is no certain rule for this, the key is to determine the specific situation of each customer. Generally speaking, intraday short-term customers will set the price difference between this price and the opening price a little smaller, while customers who do swing will set this price difference a little larger. You are doing hedging, and it is really hard to say how much this stop loss price will be, you have to calculate it yourself. In fact, strictly speaking, your buying like this is equivalent to doing a swing operation, because you are doing this operation because the copper price will rise in the future. So you can calculate how much of a decline there is, which indicates that the original expectation of growth has been disappointed, and it is necessary to sell the existing position. Once this amplitude is estimated, your stop-loss price will also come out."

The more Hou Gui listened, the more complicated he felt, originally he didn't have a clear stop-loss price in his heart, and he heard that the system would automatically close the transaction when it touched the stop-loss price, which made him feel even more embarrassed. If the spread is too small, intraday fluctuations can be easily washed out, and if the spread is too large, the loss will be large when it falls.

He couldn't make up his mind for a while, so he said, "Don't rush to enter it now, I'll think about it." ”

Yuan Jie said: "Okay, when the time comes, you can enter it according to this step." ”

The continuous rise in copper prices not only made Hou Gui feel worried and afraid, but also Liu Zhongzhou, chairman of the Southern Group, had a big stone hanging in his heart. The current copper price is so high that it has never been seen before.

Last year's annual report has just come out, and the sales performance of the whole group is quite gratifying. Considering that the group's production costs will not fluctuate much in the future, if calculated according to the current copper price, this year's profit will definitely be much better than last year.

But now it's just the beginning of the year, and the price of copper is so high, how will the price of copper go in the days to come, and will it continue to rise?

If it keeps rising, of course, it is unwanted.

But the price of copper has been rising for three years, and now it is almost three times as high as it was three years ago, and it seems to have risen faster in the last month or so.

Even as a person who has been engaged in the production of non-ferrous metals for so many years, he is puzzled by such a phenomenon.

Although he hopes that the price of copper will continue to rise, in his position, he cannot live by imagination alone. He must make a rational judgment on the future trend of copper prices.

Anyone who thinks about it rationally knows that there is nothing like this that only goes up, not down?

This question had been hidden in his mind for a long time.

On this day, after Xue Chenzhi came to discuss other things with him in the office, he asked Xue Chenzhi: "What do you think of this copper price now, and how long will it last in this position?"

Xue Chenzhi didn't understand Liu Zhongzhou's intention to ask this, and he didn't know how to answer him for a while. He wanted to probe Liu Zhongzhou's bottom and find out whether he thought the current price was too high or low when he asked this, so he said, "Chairman, what do you mean?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "I mean, do you think copper prices will rise or fall this year?"

Xue Chenzhi said: "This is not accurate. ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "I can't say if I can't say it. You have to think about it carefully, and you have to know it in your heart. If it continues to rise, of course, everyone is happy, but if there is a risk of falling, you must prepare in advance. From a smelter's point of view, which one is more likely to rise or fall in the coming year?"

Xue Chenzhi thought for a while and said: "To be honest, the price has risen to this position, I also feel a little hanging, this is an unprecedented high price, if it continues to rise, it seems that there is no reason to find it." But if it says that it will fall immediately, I don't think it maybe. If you want me to see, it may rise a little more at the current position, as for how high it can rise, I really can't say, but by the end of the year, the price of copper should be lower than it is now. Otherwise, if it continues to rise for another year, it won't really be sky-high. ”

After listening to this, Liu Zhongzhou felt that what Xue Chenzhi said was not much different from what he thought, and he also felt that the current price could not be maintained for a long time, but he was not sure of this opinion, and he needed to listen to the opinions of others before making a judgment.

As the director of the smelter, Xue Chenzhi's opinion is undoubtedly very weighty. So Liu Zhongzhou continued to ask: "Where do you think the high point will be?"

Xue Chenzhi said without hesitation: "At most, it will rise by another three or four thousand, then it will already exceed 40,000 yuan a ton, and I have never seen such a high price in my life." ”

Liu Zhongzhou said thoughtfully: "Judging from the rate of price increase last year, the space of three or four thousand yuan, that is, it will be reached in about half a year. ”

Xue Chenzhi said: "Yes, if the high point of copper prices this year is 40,000 yuan a ton, it will enter a downward trend from the second half of the year at the latest." But all this is an estimate, maybe the decline will come earlier, maybe it will come later, no one can say. And if it falls, how much will it fall? This is also a question. ”

Liu Zhongzhou scratched his head and said: "This is the most difficult part, everything is unknown! But if you and I agree that the overall copper price is more likely to fall this year, then we must make some preparations in advance, so as not to lose the profits we can see." ”

Xue Chenzhi said: "Chairman, I understand what you mean, what you mean is that the factory is taking advantage of the high copper price now, stepping up production, stepping up sales, and trying to reduce product inventory, right?"

Liu Zhongzhou nodded and said, "Yes, but that's just one of them." The focus is only on the existing inventory, and the visible profit is still only partially grasped. ”

Xue Chenzhi listened to Liu Zhongzhou's words, his eyes rolled twice, and he still didn't understand what Liu Zhongzhou meant. He asked, "Chairman, ...... you mean?"

Liu Zhongzhou said: "I was thinking that if the price fell in the second half of the year, the decline must not be small. If you think about it, this has been rising for three consecutive years, and once you turn around, who knows where the bottom will be? Not to mention more, is it possible to fall back to 30,000 yuan a ton a year ago?"

Xue Chenzhi nodded and said, "It's very possible." ”

Liu Zhongzhou said: "That's right, based on 30,000 yuan a ton, compared with the current price, one ton will earn seven or eight thousand yuan less." How many tons of copper can the group produce in the second half of the year, and it will make two or three hundred million less if you calculate it!"

When Xue Chenzhi heard this, he smiled helplessly and said: "Chairman, this is also a helpless thing, the copper produced in the second half of the year can only be sold at the market price at that time." ”

Liu Zhongzhou didn't think much when he heard this, he stretched out his index finger and shook it in front of his eyes, and said mysteriously: "It's not that there is no way, there is a way! I am still considering this idea, and I want to hear your opinion." ”

Xue Chenzhi blinked vigorously and asked confusedly, "What's the way?"