1025. Grasp the triple A dilemma now and ten years from now
Every word of the man with glasses is actually very reasonable.
But Zhou Fangyuan still had to refute the other party.
The reason is very simple, because he insists on doing 3A, which cannot have any hesitation or twists and turns.
"First of all, the market problem, the market needs to be cultivated, and the foreign market is also created little by little by those foreign game companies, and now, it is our turn to develop the domestic market. I know what you want to say, you want to say, this process may be handed over to foreign companies, we can first play the side ball, take the opportunity to make more money, and then wait for the other party to develop the market after we suddenly enter the market? and then seize the market? I don't know where you got your confidence, but those big companies are not idiots, people have developed this market, it will not be so easy to return the market to us.
Second, don't you want to think about the cost of letting someone else develop the market for us? I can tell you very responsibly that the price of letting foreign companies help us develop the market is cultural invasion.
When players are accustomed to Western games, it will be extremely difficult for us to regain the market, and that difficulty is even higher than that of our own market. ”
The film industry is the best example of this.
When the public is accustomed to Hollywood blockbusters, the living space of domestic films will be squeezed. The simplest example is "Wolf Warrior 2", there are too many movies like this in Hollywood, when similar Hollywood movies enter the country, they are often greeted with praise, even if there are some criticisms, at most they are aimed at the plot or actors, and no one has ever said that there is anything wrong with the protagonist's personal heroism. But when the domestic movie is released, look at it, how many people are scolding on the Internet?
For the same type of movie, why are Hollywood movies praised, while domestic movies are scolded?
Is it true that I didn't shoot well? If it's really my own shortcomings, it's normal to be scolded. But the problem is that the movie itself is not a big problem, at least there are no unforgivable mistakes, so why is it still scolded?
Quite simply, this is the consequence of cultural invasion.
The same is true for the anime field.
When the people are accustomed to rice movies and Fusang animation, no matter how good the domestic related works are, there will always be a group of people who will jump out and scold, as if the domestic works insult his soul.
And so on, who can guarantee that the gaming market won't turn out like this?
"When it comes to technology, I don't think it's a big deal about technology. We lack accumulation, it doesn't matter, we can poach people. There are so many directors, screenwriters, and all kinds of staff in Hollywood, is it true that everyone is very well mixed? Not necessarily, some people eat meat and drink, and some people eat chaff and swallow vegetables, and we can't dig those who eat meat and drink, and we can't dig up those who eat bran and drink wine? Even if we are willing to spend money, those who eat meat and drink wine can still dig up. As long as we dig it up, won't we make up for what we lack? Don't forget, our distant group also has some energy abroad.
No one makes a cultural summary, we do it ourselves. I am worried that foreigners will not be able to grasp the spiritual core of our civilization well, so this spiritual core will be shaped by ourselves, and let them do pure technology.
Therefore, in fact, what stands in front of us is not a tiger in the way at all, and we have many ways to solve these troubles, so everyone, don't retreat by yourself without doing anything, even if you fail, we must try, because this road is what we must take, one step earlier is better than one step late!"
Zhou Fangyuan said in a deep voice.
I have to say that in recent years, it is indeed the outbreak period of 3A masterpieces, in fact, there are not too many successful experiences abroad, they just have enough accumulation and are groping.
This is a very good era, everyone has not yet developed, everyone has a chance to succeed, as long as you can calm down and work hard to develop, even if there is a gap compared to foreign masterpieces, this gap will not make people despair, let alone disappoint players.
As a reborn, Zhou Fangyuan has always been very clear that if he doesn't grasp the opportunity now and wait a few more years, it will not be easy to compete.
Not to mention the development speed of online games and mobile games in a few years, let's talk about the stand-alone games themselves, there will be many problems.
This was the case in the years before Zhou Fangyuan's rebirth, that is, in those years, there were too many 3A masterpieces, and the release cycle interval of many works became shorter and shorter, and the feeling of becoming more and more homogeneous was lethargic, for example, "Far Cry 3" had a good reputation after it appeared that year, but the overall gameplay of "Far Cry 4" was a minor repair and modification on the basis of the 3rd generation, "Far Cry: Primal Kill" The materials of the first two games are directly reused, and the gameplay is almost unchanged, and the later game is full of a large number of repetitive and boring tasks, which has led to a significant decline in the reputation of the series.
Many industry insiders have also criticized this situation, for example, the father of the "Gears of War" series once said: 3A games are becoming more and more like fast food in the United States. Just like the fast-food restaurants that can be found everywhere in every major city, you can eat familiar flavors anywhere. They've always been there. The taste is ok, but it's not too tasty.
At that time, the cost of triple-A games was getting higher and higher, especially after Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 spent $250 million ($200 million of which was promotional expenses) to build this masterpiece, and a Pandora's box was opened. Latecomers followed the game's lead, with GTA 5 costing $265 million, Destiny $500 million, and Star Wars: The Old Republic $200 million.
However, not every triple-A masterpiece can be profitable, GTA5 has been sold for five years since its appearance, but sales like "Watch Dogs 2" have fallen a lot compared with the previous game, and the sales in the first week in the UK are 80% less than the previous game, and "Titanfall 2", which was sold at the end of 2016 by two major FPS rivals, has also been hit hard, and for example, the sales of "Evil Within 2" are not as good as the previous work, and the sales of "Call of Duty: Infinite" have dropped by half compared to the previous "Call of Duty: Black Ops 3".
Rising R&D costs have led to these triple-A masterpieces having to sell millions of sets to make a profit, and although "Tomb Raider 9" sold three or four million copies after it appeared, the developer Crystal Dynamics said that the cost of this game is too high, and it must sell more than five million sets to make a profit, but fortunately, the game continued to sell for a long time, and eventually global sales exceeded 11 million sets, which made the work later have a sequel.
Because the cost is too high, once the sales are not good, then the sequel is likely to be lost, and this is the case with the Gears of War series, "Gears of War 4" cost more than $100 million, and the original developer of the series, EPIC, chose to withdraw from the production of this game. ACCORDING TO EPIC'S CO-FOUNDER TIM SWEENEY, THE COMPANY WILL IMMEDIATELY SHUT DOWN AS LONG AS THE GAME DOESN'T SELL WELL, WHICH IS WHY THE GAME IP WAS SOLD TO PUBLISHER MICROSOFT.
However, the cost is too high, and it is only one of the problems that triple-A masterpieces will face in the future.
It's also a hassle to get harder and harder to manage teams.
For example, the local R&D team of "The Witcher 3" in Poland is more than 200 people, but the number of people involved in the global outsourcing team exceeds 1200 people, and each work of the Assassin's Creed series involves members of about ten studios around the world for transnational cooperation, and the management problems caused by regional differences in Chinese are endless, which will inevitably have a negative impact on the efficiency of game production. This is also one of the reasons behind why the sense of repetition and homogeneity of the triple-A masterpiece experience is more serious, because there are so many management problems, so taking the most conservative production method is the most stable means, if you let go of the staff of each studio to play freely, it is likely to fall into all kinds of chaos in the end.
In addition, the development time is getting longer and longer, which is another reason for the difficulties of triple-A masterpieces.
With the increase in costs and the difficulty of team management, the development time of triple-A masterpieces is getting longer and longer, which often leads to many problems.
The first is that the game production is constantly being overturned, resulting in the game ending up as a work-in-progress. For example, Final Fantasy 15, which was released at the end of 2016, was developed for ten years, and although the development company SE continued to tinker with the game for up to a year, the game was criticized for its semi-finished quality after its initial release, especially the significant shrinkage of the final chapter, which caused many people to be seriously dissatisfied.
"Metal Gear Solid 5" is a similar situation, this game has also been developed for many years, spending a lot of research and development funds, and in the end, KONAMI can't stand it, and the senior management ordered the development team to hurry up to complete the work, which directly led to the second chapter of the game being fragmented, the game has become a semi-finished product, it is said that a third of the game has not been completed, and Hideo Kojima also left KONAMI, and since then, "Metal Gear Solid 5" has not been able to be like "Final Fantasy 15" It took so long to repair it, so it became a work-in-progress forever.
The result of this continuous bounce is to gradually consume the patience of players and cause some players to lose.
The most typical case is "Kingdom Hearts 3", this game was announced in 2013, and a few trailers were released, and there were revelations that the game would be released in 2015, but the release date of the game was delayed again and again, and then there was news that the game would be released at the end of 2018, and Amazon showed that the release date of the pre-order information was December 29, 2018, but there is still the possibility of skipping tickets for this game.
You must know that the 1st and 2nd generations of the Kingdom Hearts series were launched in the PS2 era, and the entire PS3 era of this series only launched a variety of versions such as remastered and enhanced versions, and after entering the PS4 era, the 3rd generation has not been released for a long time, and an IP should continue to maintain its influence, it should rely on uninterrupted sequels to maintain player loyalty, and "Kingdom Hearts 3" has dragged on for many years, which may eventually lead to some players leaving, after all, games are not necessities, and now new games are emerging in an endless stream.
However, the continuous extension of the development time of triple-A masterpieces has become an inevitable problem, and it is also a major problem that many such game companies will urgently solve in the future.
What's more, in this era, this is an era of entertainment diversification, the reason why games can usher in vigorous development in the past few decades is mainly because this is a new thing, a new form of entertainment, but with the continuous rise of the Internet, entertainment methods have become more diversified and diversified, such as live broadcast and short video will occupy the time of a large number of Internet users, and then for example, a variety of American dramas, British dramas, Japanese dramas, etc., of course, domestic animation is also constantly emerging high-quality products, as far as these new things are concerned, a mobile game or a single American drama field will not have a great impact on 3A masterpieces, but at the moment when there are so many entertainment methods, 3A masterpieces don't seem to be a necessity for many people.
Why do there are so many problems in the triple-A masterpieces? If the challenges brought about by the new things are external, then from the internal causes, are so many problems in the triple-A masterpieces accidental or inevitable?
Fundamentally speaking, the emergence of triple-A masterpieces is a typical phenomenon in the post-capitalist era, that is, a thing that inevitably appears after the development of capitalism and industrialization to an inevitable stage, which is very similar to the emergence of Hollywood blockbusters.
The essence of capitalism is to expand production through consumerism, so as to constantly circulate, and always pursue a larger and more magical future, to ensure the circularity of this system, it is necessary to continuously expand production and upgrade production, so there is a modern system of industrial standards, from skyscrapers to Hollywood blockbusters, to triple-A masterpieces, we can find similar phenomena, even KFC and McDonald's have such characteristics.
The problems encountered by 3A masterpieces in the future are actually the problems that Hollywood movies will encounter in the future, such as the phenomenon of repeated homogenization of content experience, which will also frequently appear in Hollywood movies in the future, the cost is too high, the research and development time is too long, and the reputation often declines, so is the "Justice League" movie, didn't it also encounter a similar dilemma.
The biggest problem with triple-A masterpieces is that they want to continue to replicate a miracle through mass production, for example, "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare" has continued to release sequels after it became popular, and "Assassin's Creed 2" was originally of excellent quality in all aspects, and the various sequels that have continued to appear since then are also mixed.
If these classics had come to an end at the best of times, perhaps there would not have been so many problems and controversies later.
But the capitalist model has determined that it is impossible for triple-A masterpieces to stop the pace of research and development, unless the sales of the series have really declined sharply, after all, no matter how word-of-mouth problems, whether the practitioners are still in a hellish situation, the Call of Duty series and the Assassin's Creed series are still selling well, and they are still very profitable products, and the pursuit of profit first will always be the main theme of capitalism.
So Zhou Fangyuan knows very well that in ten years at most, the 3A masterpiece will be in trouble. When the time comes, they will also face such a dilemma, which is not what Zhou Fangyuan is willing to see.
The first few years of the 21st century are a period of great social change, all walks of life are changing, and the game industry is also changing.
Since he is already sitting on the cusp of this storm, and obviously has the ability to "predict" the future, does he still have to move forward conservatively?
No, since he has this opportunity, he will not be conservative, he must be brave and diligent, and seize every opportunity that can be seized.