Chapter 46, Xiong Tu Enlightenment

Zuo Yuliang fully figured out one thing through the operation of SAIC, and stock speculation is, to put it bluntly, the art of waiting. Making money on Shanghai Motors twice in a row is the result of patient holding shares and constantly waiting. During this period, he resisted the temptation of the theme stocks rising one after another, resisted the bewitchment of gossip, and resisted the vacillation in his heart and the resulting lack of confidence and doubt.

But if you want to make money in the stock market, and to make money for a long time, you need to constantly improve your self-cultivation. Including the grasp of the trend of the market, including the judgment of whether the main force of individual stocks is involved, including whether the policy supports the rise of the stock market, including whether the stock itself has investment value, and a series of other issues, so it is not so easy to make money by speculating in stocks.

However, when the stock market embarks on a long bear road, the waiting for holding shares becomes a long and distant long march with no end in sight. In such a market environment, losing money is sometimes doomed.

After Zuo Yuliang and his colleagues made a profit from SAIC, they couldn't find any specific stocks to operate in the face of the continuous correction of the stock market for a while. Zuo Yuliang suddenly felt that he didn't seem to have any inspiration for buying and selling other stocks except for SAIC. Sometimes even if he reluctantly buys other stocks, his heart is always unsteady, especially once the market plummets, holding stocks with poor performance, it is even more falling, and some have to be ST to be delisted as a warning.

During this period, Zuo Yuliang made several short-term stocks, all of which were not very ideal, with profits and losses, and in the end he only got a tie, which made Zuo Yuliang have to calm down and carefully study the daily K-line chart of individual stocks, hoping to find some beneficial enlightenment that can help him operate stocks.

Zuo Yuliang really discovered such a unique and very clear and simple law.

Zuo Yuliang, who has nothing to do, likes to turn on the computer and study the evolution of individual stock K-lines. Looking at the ups and downs of the stock market K-line, Zuo Yuliang is also constantly associating. For the daily trend of stock prices, there is always a time when you are at the top of the mountain, and there is always a time when you are in the valley, so as long as the stock is bought in the valley and sold at the top of the mountain, is it right? Thinking about it, he bought Shanghai Automobile twice to make money, which was a secret fit with this law, and what made him lose a lot was the shareholding he held when Shanghai Automobile was obviously on the top of the mountain. From this point of view, isn't it very simple to speculate in stocks? Isn't it right to find the top and bottom? No wonder some people say that the road is simpler? In fact, as long as you buy stocks at the bottom, the probability of making money will be greatly increased!

So where is the real bottom? After the stock price has passed, it seems to be more obvious to look back at the daily K-line, but when it is in the specific K-line trend of individual stocks, it is sometimes difficult to judge whether the stock price is at the top or the bottom. It seems that how to judge this bottom is the most important problem that Zuo Yuliang needs to study and solve! If this problem can be solved, then wouldn't stock speculation be a matter of making sure that you will not lose money? Zuo Yuliang was very excited that he could have such an idea. Although he has read so many books about stock trading, there seems to be no book that talks about how to buy at the bottom and how to determine that the stock price is at the bottom stage.

This involves a question of the opportunity to buy the bottom, the experts in the stock review say every day that there is an opportunity in the stock market, in fact, it is a deceptive nonsense, and there are not many stocks with real operational value. In other words, there are not opportunities in the stock market every day. Because the bottom phase of the stock does not happen every day. Only when the stock price runs at the bottom stage, can the stock market really have the opportunity to operate. Chasing up and down every day, that's not an opportunity, it can only be called a death squad, this speculation is a matter of probability, even if there is a little gain, it is also a fight for life, this is not an opportunity that small retail investors should pursue.

Where should the bottom of individual stocks be? How to judge the bottom of stock prices? With these questions in mind, Zuo Yuliang began his path of research and enlightenment.

From the perspective of the stock market index, Zuo Yuliang believes that with the continuous progress of society, the overall trend pattern of the stock index is constantly rising, that is, from the perspective of the big cycle, the low point of each pullback of the stock index follows the rising trend line, which can be roughly drawn by drawing a trend line.

Zuo Yuliang carefully counted the lows of the Shanghai Composite Index over the years, and he gradually drew a rule from them, that is, the lows of the Shanghai Composite Index are constantly rising, which is consistent with Zuo Yuliang's judgment. To this end, Zuo Yuliang made an outline of the low point of the Shanghai Composite Index for easy understanding.

In 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index had a low of around 430 points and then began to rise;

In 1996, it saw a low near 560 points, and then began to rise;

In 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 998 points, and then launched a new high;

In 2008, the index bottomed out at around 1,680 points, and then began to expand again.

Judging by the connection of the trend line at the lowest point of the index, Zuo Yuliang came to a conclusion: after 2009, even if the stock market wants to pull back, it will not be lower than 1680 points.

That is to say, near 1680 points, it may be the bottom of the next few years, and if the market touches this position in the future, there is a high probability that there will be a big market. This is an inference drawn by Zuo Yuliang about the evolution of the index, of course, whether it is accurate or not, Zuo Yuliang can not completely guarantee it, he just came to such a simple conclusion by studying the evolution of the stock market K-line.

But judging from the later development of the stock market, if Zuo Yuliang and his team can follow this inference in the future, they can really copy the bottom of the stock market correction in the future!

The big bottom creates a big opportunity, and the bottom of the swing only makes a swing opportunity.

So how can we copy the bottom of the big and swing bands of a specific individual stock? If SAIC is pulling back, where is its bottom? Zuo Yuliang couldn't help but think of the SAIC he had bought, and with this question in mind, he began to study the daily chart of SAIC again.

From the daily chart of SAIC, Zuo Yuliang remembered the stock market symmetry theory that he had studied. This model in mathematics did not expect to be a good solution to the problem raised by Zuo Yu's conscience, which may be the usefulness of mathematics as a discipline? It can solve the problem of finding the bottom of stocks.

Zuo Yuliang listed the correspondence between several lows and the lows of the broader market of SAIC:

In 2005, the index low was 998 points, and the stock price of SAIC Motor was 2.93 yuan.

In 2008, the index low was 1680 points, and the share price of SAIC Motor was 5.4 yuan.

From the analysis of these two corresponding results, Zuo Yuliang came to a conclusion that it is estimated that the lowest point of the stock price of Shanghai Automobile in the future is estimated to be 5.4 yuan, because its issue price is 7 yuan and the opening price is around 13 yuan. Combined with the future development of SAIC, I am afraid that the vicinity of 7 yuan will be the low point that it may pull back to in the future, and when the time comes, if you see this price, it is a good time to buy the bottom again! In fact, the low point of SAIC's later pullback is about 13 yuan at the opening price, and then it will never go down. That is to say, no matter how the market falls in the future, the share price of SAIC will have extremely strong support at about 13 yuan.

And Zuo Yuliang and his colleagues threw away the position of Shanghai Automobile is around 26 yuan, which happens to be the location of a mountaintop. And 13 yuan is the price position where SAIC's stock price will fall by exactly half in the future. If you don't sell at $26 or re-enter the stock at this position, the loss is considerable. If it was about to turn into an elephant and go in, the camel came out.

This is the first content that Zuo Yuliang draws, about the characteristics of the pullback trend of the stock price symmetry cycle.

The second conclusion reached by Zuo Yuliang is that the time period of stock price falling or rising is also roughly symmetrically distributed. If the small period is asymmetrical, then the large period must be symmetrical, and conversely, if the large period is asymmetrical, then the band small period must be symmetrical. In other words, the duration of a wave of stock rises is roughly the same as the time of the subsequent killing. This is also another conclusion that Zuo Yuliang came to when he studied the trend of the broader market and the stock price chart of SAIC.

After carefully comparing and studying SAIC's daily fluctuation cycle from 2005 to 2009, Zuo Yuliang had a general understanding of SAIC's future pullback.

It lasted one year from September 2006 to October 2007.

From the October 2007 high to the October 2008 low, it lasted a year.

From the low point in October 2008 to the high point in December 2009, it lasted about a year.

December 2009 high, to 、、、、、、?

After Zuo Yuliang found out the comparative conclusion of SAIC, he secretly understood in his heart that from the perspective of time, if SAIC Motor wants to have a big low, it should be at least in December 2010 or even later.

In other words, after SAIC sold its shares, the valuable intervention time will be in the winter of a year later, which is a bit of a long wait, Zuo Yuliang sighed and thought secretly.

In this way, according to the symmetry theory of the time cycle and the stock price cycle, Zuo Yuliang came to the general conclusion that the next time he bought Shanghai Automobile: after a year, the price will be around 7 yuan.

Because since 2010, China's stock market has undergone a process of rebirth, coupled with new problems and new situations in the market, as well as the huge pressure brought by the issuance of new shares, so that the adjustment cycle of the market far exceeds Zuo Yuliang's expectations. But one thing is gratifying, that is, the adjustment of the market is basically in line with Zuo Yuliang's judgment. Until the low point in 2014, the Shanghai Composite Index did not fall below 1680 points, the previous low.

It seems that the future development of the stock market is still on the road of gradual climbing, but it is more tortuous and complicated. This makes Zuo Yuliang more cautious and careful in the next stock trading career, otherwise, it is only a matter of time before he loses money.

This is Zuo Yuliang's rough bottom-buying standard that guided him to operate the stock after several unsuccessful short-term speculation experiences and careful thinking after Zuo Yuliang escaped from the top of Shanghai Automobile. One is to judge the low point of the stock price correction from the price cycle, and the other is to judge the approximate time of the pullback to the low point from the time period. This is the way Zuo Yuliang realized to speculate in stocks.

"Comrades, do you want to hear my judgment on the future trend of SAIC, as well as the general judgment on the trend of the overall market?" Zuo Yuliang proudly sent a message to their QQ group, hoping to attract the attention of others.

One stone stirred up a thousand waves, and Zuo Yuliang's brick-throwing action stimulated everyone's enthusiasm for the stock market. As a shareholder, he is really a small strong who can't be beaten, and he is very strong!