Chapter 71: Interpreting the Bull Market

Unexpectedly, the power of leveraged funds is so wild, the continuous rise of the stock index, the huge amount of turnover, and the huge risk brought by the continuous rise made the management stunned, and they have reminded the risk in various channels, a typical sentence is: there is a risk in stock speculation, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. However, few investors can appreciate the goodwill of the policy publishers. The desire to make huge profits has washed away the mind of every stock speculator.

And among the few people who speculated in stocks, there were still people who were sober. The first to prompt the risk in the group were Liu Pengfei and Zuo Yuliang.

"Brother Zuo, after a long period of rise, the attitude of the management seems to have changed, is the stock index about to peak?" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"According to my prediction, this time the mad cow should be in place. Everyone should be careful. Zuo Yuliang also sent a message and said.

"Recently, the management has issued intensive documents to warn the majority of small and medium-sized retail investors to pay attention to the risk of falling stock indexes. This is the first time!" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"This kind of trillions of daily trading volume will definitely cause concern and concern from all parties. People only talk about stocks and the stock market in their lives, do you think this is normal?" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"When it began to rise, the policy repeatedly emphasized that it was necessary to slow down the bull, healthy cattle, and stabilize and healthy ten-year bull market, and now it is about to hit a new high in less than a year! This is very different from the expectations of the policy!" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"It's all leverage, once it falls, the risk is huge!" Zuo Yuliang also sent a message.

"Then Brother Zuo, do you want our Wuliangye to be out?" Hu Weiyong said in a message.

"It's already 32 yuan, it's basically doubled, I think it's better to be out of the game temporarily?" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"Then didn't we say that we want to hold shares for six years and achieve a tenfold journey? Now we are going to escape? I still have a gambling contract with Hu Weiyong? If we throw it away, then Hu Weiyong will have a treat, hehehe. Du Wenfeng sent a message and said.

"This is not contradictory to achieving a tenfold journey! When the stock price falls, you can make up for it!" Hu Weiyong said in a message.

"If you want to throw, you can throw it, I am holding the stock to rise, and I will not be out of the market if it is less than ten times. Du Wenfeng sent a message and said.

"Wuliangye's current round of rise is actually lagging behind the market, and stocks that have doubled and increased tenfold have appeared, and its rise should be a normal return to value!" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"No matter how valuable a stock is, it will also pull back when the market pulls back, which is the law. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Of course, we can still implement a half-position operation, half a position to prevent rise, and half a position to prevent falling. Zuo Yuliang continued to send a message and said.

"I think Brother Zuo's strategy is relatively safe, and at the moment, we can't judge whether the market is going to fall!" Cao Yinqiu also sent a message.

"There is a great probability of killing and falling, there is no stock market that only rises and does not fall, and it is a wild rise and does not fall! Maybe this is a rising method that we will never encounter again in our lives, so we have encountered it. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Brother Zuo, do you judge whether this rise should exceed 6124 points?" Hu Weiyong asked in a message.

"I really can't answer your question!" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"I found an analysis article on the Internet about the evolution stage of this round of market, you can read it, maybe it will be a little rewarding. Liu Pengfei sent a message and said.

Let's take a look back at the three phases of this round of stock market rally.

In the first stage, from July 11, 2014 to December 31, 2014, a series of reforms were introduced (banking reform in July, railway and oil reform in August, water conservancy reform in September, and financial brokerage reform in November), which drove the stock market to rise, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 58.23%, which was called "reform bull" by the media for this wave of market. During this period, small and medium-sized shareholders invested 1.33 trillion yuan into the stock market.

In the second stage, from January 1 to March 8, 2015, due to the Spring Festival, preparations for the two sessions and other reasons, no new reform measures were introduced, and the stock market fluctuated steadily. In the past two months, the market has basically been in the stage of digesting the concept of reform in the early stage, with small and medium-sized shareholders buying a net of 510 billion yuan, and new funds are still entering.

In the third stage, after March 2015, the stock market began to rise again. From March 9, 2015 to April 27, 2015, small and medium-sized shareholders bought a net of 1.62 trillion yuan in more than two months, a two-fold increase over the previous two months. That's when the market bubble starts to form. On April 16, 2015, SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures were officially launched. The CSI 500, in particular, makes an excellent arbitrage tool because it targets small and mid-cap stocks. ”

"Pengfei, this is roughly consistent with my observation, that is, have there been any policies introduced since May?" Zuo Yuliang asked in a message.

"It seems that the policy has made some policy provisions on the early cashing out of major shareholders to restrict the early large-scale arbitrage of major shareholders. Liu Pengfei sent a message and said.

"Judging from the analysis article you posted, this wave of market has been paid by retail investors until now, and major shareholders are now reducing their holdings at a high level? We have to be careful, I still recommend half a position out, and the other half position. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Brother Zuo, from a policy point of view, it is still mainly to protect the disk! The senior management agrees with the rise of the market this time!" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"But can the major shareholders in the secondary market be obedient and not reduce their holdings in the face of the rare windfall profits in the past 10 years? I'm afraid they are not so united? Once the profits since the shareholding reform are reduced, it will take a huge amount of funds to take over! Once they can't catch it, it will be very fierce to kill and fall! According to my theory of symmetry, if a high point is formed, then this time the killing and falling will also be fierce. How to rise, how to fall in the future!" Zuo Yuliang continued to send a message.

"Brother Zuo, don't be scary! My little heart can't stand it!" Hu Weiyong sent a message.

"Anyway, I'm reducing my position, 30,000 shares, and 20,000 shares, so that you can advance and retreat more freely, you can just watch it!" Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Listen to people's persuasion, eat a full meal, then I will also lose half of the position!" Hu Weiyong said in a message.

"I'll take a look at it, and I guess there won't be any big problems in June. Liu Pengfei sent a message and said.

"Judging from the moving average, the 13-day moving average has shown fatigue, which means turning around. In addition, there is already a long upper shadow line of the high-altitude rails, and this is also a peaking pattern! Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"I have a heavy position in GEM stocks, and the increase is also very good, wait and see. Li Ruyun sent a message and said.

"I also have a heavy position in the GEM, hehe, it's also a good increase!" Cao Yinqiu sent a message and said.

"No matter what board it is, it's the same when it falls, so everyone has to be careful. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

It's only mid-May now, and there are no more than five, and there is no shortage of six. Hahaha. Chen Menglong sent a message and said.

"Anyway, I'm saying it's in place, let's look at it! But you can't easily buy the bottom after a short position, once this wave of market is over, there will be a 4.8-year bear market waiting for you. You must wait for the stock price to fall in place before you can enter the market to buy the bottom. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

Although Zuo Yuliang and everyone warned of the risk, the stock index was still very strong, rising until June, which made Zuo Yuliang feel that he was a little timid. As a result, there are some doubts about his previous judgment.

"Brother Zuo, you are still too worried, the current market is still a bull market, I have seen 5,000 points, maybe I will break through the 6124 historical high and hit a new high!" Hu Weiyong said in a message.

"It's better to be content!Don't be blinded by desire!" Zuo Yuliang still sent a message with some self-deprecation.

Just when everyone wondered that Zuo Yuliang was too cautious, the stock index that hit a high of 5278 finally began its journey of killing and falling.

This time, the market fell by nearly 900 points in one breath. A few people in the group who only fell were in heavy positions.

Fortunately, after listening to Zuo Yuliang's words, Hu Wei escaped the plunge with half a position.

At this point, a round of leveraged bull market has come to an end, and the stock index has embarked on a long bear road again.