Chapter 72 Value Discovery

From 2014 to 2015, the stock market in less than two years has come out of a wave of crazy leveraged bull market, although the management has repeatedly asked the majority of shareholders to pay attention to the risks of stock speculation, to slow cattle, healthy cattle, long-term cattle, but all parties in the market do not buy it. Retail investors are busy chasing the price to enter the market, and the big investors are busy telling stories and making games, while the big predators behind the real stock market, the major shareholders are actively distributing high prices. When the market diverges on the rise of the stock index, the trend of the evolution of the stock index begins to change.

When leveraged funds and retail funds can no longer afford the arbitrage capital needs of major shareholders who are frantically fleeing, the stock index has set off a wave of bloody killing and falling mode.

The rise in the stock market is a wave of growth. First, there is the entry of prescient funds, then the entry of hindsight funds, and finally the entry of retail funds. The killing also has such characteristics, first the major shareholders take profits and cash out to reduce their holdings, and then the profits are out of the market first, and then the funds are out of the game, and then the funds are out of the game, and the last out is the retail investors who seem to have to kill and flee. As a result, there is a common saying in the stock market: how it rises, how it falls.

Under the sell-off of funds from all sides, the stock index also began to fall wave after wave.

In the face of the decline of the market, several of Zuo Yuliang's friends who speculated in stocks were anxious like ants on a hot pot, and they were busy sending messages to ask each other for advice.

"Brother Zuo, this killing seems to be different from the previous one?" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"What's the difference? Isn't it this virtue every time you kill and fall? If it rises fast, it will fall quickly!" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"This time I fell for the policy. The management has repeatedly supported the interests of retail investors and has continuously introduced policies to limit the reduction of shareholdings by major shareholders. Isn't this our slogan: Speculate on stocks and follow the party, will the stock market live for a long time?" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"This is the management's protection measure for retail investors! The problem is that it is not illegal for major shareholders to reduce their holdings! It is also not illegal for people to reasonably reduce their holdings of stocks? It's just that market funds cannot undertake such a large reduction in holdings. Speaking of which, the stock has risen too much, the stock of ten yuan has risen to 100, you are a shareholder, don't you want to reduce your holdings?" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"It's right to think the other way around, isn't it wrong for retail investors to lose money, but it's right for major shareholders to be trapped? The market itself is a place of game, and you are willing to buy. He is willing to sell, which is understandable, and the participants cannot enter the market with the mentality that they can't afford to lose. Zuo Yuliang continued to send a message and said.

"What Liu Pengfei means is that the favorable policy has paralyzed everyone's vigilance and made us blindly optimistic, so it has caused a large area of shareholding trapping, which is really worrying!" Cao Yinqiu also sent a message.

"Actually, I thought that this leveraged bull itself was unreliable! If you just deduce it from common sense, it will not last long if you think about it! Where would someone deliberately put money several times or more than ten times for you to speculate in stocks? Shouldn't this money be returned? In fact, it exposes the boundless greed and courage of human nature. They all want to gamble and leave, but the question is that this money really only needs to be printed by a money printing machine? Once the warehouse is blown up, there will be no return! Then don't give up your life to escape!" Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Then when will Brother Zuo's wave of killing and falling come to an end?" Li Ruyun asked in a message.

"At least one year, at most four years, this wave of market is over, and there will be no big market in four years. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Originally, I calculated that I would go through a two-year bull market, but I didn't expect it to start falling before it was even ten months old. At this rate, the bottom will not be seen until a year later. Fast up and down, it should be a symmetrical trend. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Then when is this stock a day to untie?" Li Ruyun said in a message.

"I bought Lehman Optoelectronics for 57 yuan! At the moment, there are only 13 yuan? Although it is a high transfer, it has also lost dozens of points, and there are six or seven consecutive drop limits in the early stage! I have lost all the money I made with Brother Zuo before. It's sad to think about!" Li Ruyun said in a message.

"There is no hope in the short term, I'm not afraid that you will be sad, there is no hope for the next four years. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Then this time I really fried the shares into my daughter's dowry. Li Ruyun said with a tearful picture.

"It's miserable! I'm not out of the game, I regret that I shouldn't have listened to Brother Zuo's suggestion to throw away half of the position, and now Wuliangye has also fallen by ten yuan, I am 10,000 shares!" Liu Pengfei said.

"I also miscalculated, I should have reduced all my positions, but I didn't expect the market to fall so sharply. Five

The market value of grain and liquid has also shrunk by 200,000!" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"No one would have expected this kind of market, and if you knew that such a fall would have been thrown away. Hu Weiyong sent a message and said.

"This time I lost a lot of money, chasing the rise and killing the fall, and encountering this one-sided killing and falling market, I really can't say what it is! It fell by 30 points in a few days. Cao Yinqiu sent a message to complain.

"Brother Zuo, let's give me a suggestion, how should we deal with this killing next?" Chen Menglong also sent a message and asked.

"It is estimated that after the rapid decline of the market, there should be a process of rebound, and then everyone can only take advantage of the rebound to get out, and it can be reduced a little. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"The market has risen sharply for four months, and the killing and falling will not be less than four months, and this wave of killing and falling is a confirmation of the pullback of the rising and low! In other words, the real bottom is coming, and it is estimated that it will be July and August again. For now, all we have to do is be patient. It's not good to enter the market rashly. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Then we might as well cut the meat and get out of the game as soon as possible, otherwise it won't fall back!" Cao Yinqiu said.

"The problem is that you are reluctant? Because, who thinks that what I said makes sense? Even the few people who sit down again, you must think that I am talking nonsense, and the stock index will not fall back again. This is the biggest reason why we lose money in stock trading. Actually, it's still wise to cut meat now, but I can't persuade everyone to cut meat!" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"But Brother Zuo, cutting meat is really a heavy loss!" Chen Menglong sent a message.

"If you don't cut the meat, the loss may be even greater in the future, and the short-term moving averages of 13, 34, and 55 that I set have been completely bearish, and it will not be easy to reverse this trend! The 55-day moving average will take at least three months to turn around. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"I'd better wait and see! I don't think it's so sad, right? The policy is now on the side of retail investors?" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

"The problem is, now that we are the biggest beneficiary of the share reform, the major shareholders can reduce their shareholdings? This is definitely the biggest negative thing! I saw a piece of information that said that the cost of the shares of the major shareholders is only a few cents? Compared with the secondary market, that is a super profit!" Zuo Yuliang said in a message.

"So now the management is also formulating corresponding policies to solve the problem of major shareholders selling shares?" Liu Pengfei said in a message.

Again, defeat is like a mountain, just like a war, once defeated, there is no way to fight back in the short term. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Brother Zuo, what should we do with the Wuliangye we have?" asked Hu Weiyong with a message.

"One word: wait. Can't wait for just two words: throw it away. Zuo Yuliang replied with a message.

"However, my software has monitored that Wuliangye still has funds entering the market every fall, I don't know what the hell is this? It's a pity that I didn't follow Brother Zuo to buy Wuliangye!" Cao Yinqiu sent a message and said.

"If you can't be tempted, if you don't kill and fall in place, you just can't participate. If you want to buy the bottom, you must also go to the previous low of 20 yuan before you can consider entering the market. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"This speculation is really disturbing?" Chen Menglong said in a message.

"I'm disheartened and lazy, and I'm going to fry. It's boring. Du Wenfeng sent a message and said.

"When it rises, it is heavy, when it falls, Wuliangye should be a good stock, and I judge that it must be foreign capital that dares to increase its position against the trend. They have a different philosophy from us, and we have to learn from others. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Wuliangye, one of the leading liquor companies in China! It should be valuable, a bottle of magenta wine costs 3,000 yuan, and our Wuliangye is not as good as it! This is obviously unreasonable. Foreign capital seems to be more accurate than we see in this point. Zuo Yuliang sent a message and said.

"Fortunately, we have reduced half of our position, and we can make up for it in the future, Brother Zuo still admires your judgment!" Hu Weiyong said in a message.

"Actually, there is nothing to speculate in stocks, it is still the sentence I often say, and it is also the benchmark for me to buy and sell stocks: is it possible to rely on utopian imagination and my own speculation to reach a conclusion that cannot be tenable with common sense inference?" Zuo Yuliang sent a message to continue emphasizing his stock trading concept.

Yes, stock speculation itself is a part of the virtual economy, but how can this virtual thing be reliable if it is maintained only by imagination and storytelling?