Lao Fan was right.

Since last year's financial market turmoil, the voice of house prices falling has become louder and louder.

Amid the shouting of a group of experts, many small and medium-sized real estate developers with insufficient strength and tight funds have really begun to sell their houses at discounts and cash out to fill the funding gap.

Careful analysis of this phenomenon will find that many developers are playing with the white wolf of empty gloves, even borrowing land funds, relying on bank loans in the early stage of development, and relying on buyers' purchase money in the later stage, and some people are stimulated by the profits of real estate development, and even dare to take 20% annualized financing.

When encountering a crisis, it was this group of people who were the first to make a noise.

Longcheng Group is still acquiring land, and deliberately reducing the opening speed, and the start plan of some projects has also been postponed, trying to survive this real estate winter with the flow of funds on hand. Other real estate giants have adopted similar practices, and occasionally hear of someone who might buy a company, apparently intending to take advantage of the downturn to merge and grow.

In real terms, the larger the real estate developer, the lower the financing cost and development cost, which means that the profit is higher and the impact is less.

In January, a big man in the real estate circle threw out the "inflection point theory", and in February, Vanke took the lead in lowering the price, selling a certain real estate in the magic capital according to a 95% discount, and sold more than 100 houses in just one week.

Longcheng Group has held three meetings in succession after the year, focusing on discussing land acquisition, loans, this year's development plan, personnel adjustment and other matters, and the attitude tends to be conservative, Fan Liancheng means that you can take land, but you should go to "pick up cheap", waiting for the opportunity to get low-cost land from other developers.

From 2006 to 2008, in just two years, the land bank soared from more than 8 million square meters to 25 million square meters, and behind the high growth was a leverage ratio of up to 14 percent, and the debt ratio was astonishingly high.

Recently, there has been a rumor of the transfer of land in Lucheng, and it is cool to take the land for a while, and it will be a headache when there is a problem in the industry, but this group has a lot of money, and the low-cost land taken last year is now thinking about transferring it at a high price, so it seems more like humming a few times, trying to get some support.

By the end of February.

Longcheng Group, which has a low debt ratio, just negotiated a loan of 13 billion yuan from the China Construction Bank and 5 billion yuan from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China a few days ago.

The stock market is still falling, if there is a problem with real estate, it will directly impact the fundamentals of the entire economy, and the other is that Longcheng Group has a low debt ratio, which is relatively stable as a whole, and has been going at its own pace before, which reassures the bank, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank is also willing to provide a credit line of 2 billion, but not to Longcheng Group, but to lend to Fan Liancheng, provided that it is guaranteed by Longcheng Group's shares.

The profit was slightly higher than at the end of last year, but given the ultra-high inflation rate, Fan Liancheng agreed to the three-year loan.

Recently, Bear Stearns, one of the five major investment banks in the United States, has reported a capital flow crisis, and Lehman Brothers has also issued a risk warning for the first quarter, causing Wall Street financial brokerage stocks to plummet.

Since February, the United States has announced that the unemployment rate has risen, the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting statement pointed out that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has increased, the six major mortgage banks in the United States have announced a "lifeline" plan to prevent foreclosure, and even Warren Buffett, the stock god, has publicly declared that he is willing to provide reinsurance for $80 billion of U.S. municipal bonds.

In mid-February, there was news that FGIC, the fourth-largest bond underwriter in the United States, announced that it was willing to spin off its business, the United Kingdom decided to nationalize Northumbur Rock Bank, the Federal Reserve introduced a proposal for new rules to prevent risky mortgages, and Germany announced that state banks were in a subprime mortgage crisis.

Later, it once again affected Hong Kong stocks, and Fan Liancheng earned nearly 300 million Hong Kong dollars in one day, and he continued to increase his shorting, betting on the sharp decline of mainland real estate companies listed in Hong Kong City, and also betting that there is still room for decline in US stocks and Hong Kong stocks that are still at a high level.

"Old" customers, using the credit line to increase the position of 50 million US dollars, all pressed on the decline of the Dow Jones index, the recent negative news continues, in the eyes of Fan Liancheng is obviously a manifestation of the intensification of the crisis.

Fan Liancheng has found that whenever he begins to waver, thinking about whether he should withdraw his position and cash out, the market will always bring him some surprises, from the beginning of October last year to the present, it has been a phased decline, one side collapses and that one collapses, and that side collapses and this side collapses.

Seeing that the market value of Longcheng Group has fallen from nearly 130 billion yuan to about 76 billion yuan today, compared with the high point, Fan Liancheng's worth has shrunk significantly, and the result is that the media has seized the handle, and I don't know what kind of life those reporters themselves live, anyway, he was described very miserably in the article.

At this moment.

Fan Liancheng drank coffee, and sighed after listening to Lao Feng: "It's that the house price has fallen, so you should buy a house, and the final price is estimated to be set at about 9,000 yuan. ”

Lao Feng didn't say anything to death, Fan Liancheng didn't care about the 1.8 million, it was as precious as life to Feng Dafa, the couple's current salary is quite high, counting the daily expenses of tax deductions and social security, etc., saving for about four years to buy a set, they love to take advantage of it, and they can save it.

With a signature smile on his face, he replied: "It's not undecided now, I'll see it when the time comes, I filled in the registration and was willing to buy a set, but this kind of registration doesn't count, right, and it will be determined after paying the money?"

Rolling his eyes, Fan Liancheng said calmly: "Whatever you want, of course, it won't count until you pay the money, is it difficult for me to force anyone to buy a house." If it is known, it will definitely say how difficult it is for Longcheng Group, even its own employees will not let go, and our company has not become like that. ”

During the speech, I turned on the computer, and during the news, I found that the news of the sharp drop in the stock price of Tencents was released on the Tenson news, and I remember that there were more than 60 Hong Kong dollars when I first paid attention to it, and now it has fallen to more than 40 Hong Kong dollars.

NetEase and Sohu, which were bought during the Spring Festival, both fell, and 20 million US dollars entered, leaving more than 18 million US dollars.

As for Tengxun's side, Fan Liancheng wanted to wait a little longer.

It is about to get a loan of 2 billion yuan from the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and in addition to leaving a part of the emergency and a part to pay for the decoration and development of the real estate, the amount that can be used is about 1 billion, and in case of lack of money, it can be withdrawn from the account opened in Goldman Sachs.

Some people in the real estate circle are so anxious that they can't get loans, and the funding gap is as high as tens of billions of yuan.

As soon as the funds are withdrawn, there is a situation of more land and less money, Fan Liancheng's book value is still about 20 billion yuan after all, plus the existence of Lao Fan, of course, there is no need to worry too much.

Rather than worrying about money, he is more worried about the prospects of Fan's Venture Capital, and has contacted a total of three times so far, namely Hongshan Huaxia, Today Capital, and Niu Dongcheng, the founder of Jingdong, all of which have disappeared.

He still has money in hand, but he can't find an investment project that satisfies him.

Niu Dongcheng called once and told him that he was still discussing, and it was estimated that she had hit a wall with Ms. Xu of Today's Capital, and Fan Liancheng didn't give her face last time.

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