How should the economic value of an oil field be estimated?

Obviously, it cannot be calculated according to the current international oil price, or even according to the expected international oil price, simply multiplied by the reserves.

As mentioned above, the value of each barrel of oil is different in different locations and different oil fields, and the expected extraction cost must be deducted.

Therefore, after CNOOC helped Gu Kun estimate the expected mining cost, the valuation could continue to be discussed.

"Assuming that the oil price is $40 per barrel after three years, after deducting the oil price risk volatility factor, it will be calculated at $35 in the investment evaluation process.

With the new offshore platform technology, the cost of extraction is controlled at $15 per barrel. The underlying gross profit per barrel is US$25, and the gross profit is US$20 in the investment appraisal process. Based on the 2.2 billion barrel reserve floor, the total underlying gross profit is $550/$44 billion. ”

"Assuming that the international mining giants that hold the extraction technology enter the market with a 25% gross profit distribution ratio, the sound financial option interest attributable to the owner of the field is $33 billion. ”

The engineers of CNOOC under Mr. Yang and the senior evaluators urgently sent by CCB quickly made a detailed assessment and answer to the demands of the Lan side, and the service attitude was simply good.

The development of oil fields is not so easy to talk about directly, and theoretically it has to be tendered. However, it is relatively convenient to use the right of reserves to engage in some financing and invest in some convertible bonds.

In particular, the landlord Gu Kun happens to have a large financing demand at the moment, and Party A himself is very urgent, so it is even more convenient.

CCB is actually relatively low in terms of strength among the four major domestic banks, but such a large bank can easily undertake the financing of a foreign oil field with billions of barrels.

It's just that if this kind of thing is placed in China, ICBC may be the first to do it.

That is, in Lanfang, because CCB has cooperated with Party A in many local infrastructure investment projects before, this time of course, it is necessary to get close to the water and the building first.

CCB is very enthusiastic, and has sent many decision-makers of sufficient level to work on site, and has also been equipped with many senior personal consulting service personnel.

Especially those who are consultants, all of them are beautiful women, all of them are beautiful and on call. Obviously, if Gu Kun wants to use the issuance of convertible bonds as a bargaining chip, there are more than a dozen latent bonds, and it will be easy. (It's impossible to get a loan to sneak people, you beg the bank for a loan.) However, if high-quality assets issue convertible bonds, it is very likely that the bank is begging customers)

It's a pity that Gu Kun is too young, he is only 22 years old after the New Year, and now in June 98, the exact age is just over half of 21 years old.

And those female employees who have completed a financial major and performed well have to work hard for three or five years before they are qualified to do such major foreign-related investment projects, how can they be at least 25 years old, and many of them are nearly 30 years old.

Gu Kun is naturally very gentlemanly, and if he doesn't eat old grass, he will give up free benefits.

After a short and serious negotiation between the two sides, it was believed that if Gu Kun was willing to completely mortgage 100% of the oil field, then it was possible to raise more than 20 billion US dollars - the valuation was 330, but financing was originally interested, even if the loan was used for financial investment, which was not a long repayment period, the general bank would have to leave two or three years of interest space.

According to the current high-interest environment of more than 10% and 15% in some countries during the current financial crisis, it would be very good to be able to borrow convertible bonds at 70% of the 30 billion yuan.

However, the rights and interests of these oil fields do not completely belong to Gu Kun, and a small part of them, according to the agreement when they bought the land, must belong to the Lan Fang state-owned.

In addition, the above benefits are only considered before tax, and the 25% income tax of the host country on the profits of the oil industry is absolutely unavoidable.

Calculated by seventy-seven, eighty-eight, Gu Kun can raise the most 10 billion US dollars.

After talking about these rough matters, Gu Kun decided to report to Grand Duke Zhu Youdong in person.

......

Gu Kun found Zhu Youdong, and it was already the next day, June 23.

There is no way, who makes all parties very urgent, so a lot of preliminary assessment work was completed in just one day.

Gu Kun has only one week to ensure that a considerable part of the funds are raised, and he has to bet on the Xiangjiang stock market as the last stable hand of his hole cards, and he can't be sloppy.

The money will not necessarily be put into the stock market at a high level, but only defensively, to ensure that there is enough ammunition in the final round to fight the bears. As long as the shorts are extinguished, the money does not have to be smashed in, and you can still find other good places to go in the medium term.

When Gu Kun went, Zhu Youdong's mood was obviously not too good, but rather complicated.

Although Lan Fang has discovered a large oil field, the whole country may become rich overnight.

But at least half of these benefits went to Gu Kun, which made him sigh very much.

For a moment, he even thought that if these lands and rights and interests were completely in his hands, then the comparison of strength between him and Gu Kun would be completely reversed, and whether or not to insist on recruiting Gu Kun as a son-in-law at that time was a matter that could be said.

Of course, just thinking about it this way, he didn't have any other better son-in-law candidates to find anyway, and he even had to worry about whether Gu Kun would look down on his daughter after going further.

"That's it, this is fate, Kenneng is leisurely destined to only have a fate with Gu Kun, what are I tossing when I'm old? Back then, Lan Fang was poor and white, and such a little family background was coveted by the colonists and harmed Xiong'er and Xixi. Now all of a sudden, the value of the entire country has skyrocketed several times, and if virtue is not worthy, it is a crime that cannot be held. Let Gu Kun worry about balancing foreign forces. ”

After the meeting between the two sides, there was an awkward silence for a few seconds, and Zhu Youdong's heart quickly flashed these thoughts.

The Xiong Er and Xi Xi that came to mind were obviously the nicknames of his eldest son and eldest daughter back then. According to the naming rules of the old Zhu family, his children's generation is next to the fire word at the end of four o'clock.

Time will change a person, 15 years ago, when he was seeking the independence of Lanfang, he was just over fifty years old, and as a politician, he was still a little ambitious. After 15 years of setbacks, he is now over 65 years old, and it is normal for his mentality to decline.

The two sides calmed down for a while with a tacit understanding, politely probing, and then Gu Kun said those questions with a posture that did not stimulate Zhu Youdong as much as possible:

"Your Highness, if we use the newly discovered oil field to find CCB for medium-term financing of about two years or so, we can mortgage a loan of about 20 billion US dollars. However, if the tax expectation is removed, there is only 15 billion yuan left, and if the proportion of state-owned shares set by the law on the ownership of mineral deposits is removed, only 10 billion US dollars may be left.

I'm here today to convince you to join me and finance this $15 billion. Correspondingly, in this wave of short-term investment in the future, if there is any further benefit, I will ensure that the dividend is shared with the royal family in proportion. Even if I don't need so much money in the future, or if there is no enough income for the project, I will end the repayment of the loan, principal and interest of this part of the funds attributable to the royal family in advance at an interest rate higher than the market interest. ”

Zhu Youdong stared at Gu Kun's eyes carefully, hoping to see the other party's true thoughts, and then asked tentatively: "In the final stage of the Hong Kong stock battle, do you need so much money?

Since the economic crisis, Zhu Youdong has also been learning and recruiting relevant think tanks around him, not to mention how awesome those think tanks are to invest in person, but their common sense and skills are still very solid, at least a little better than the stock commentators on the TV station.

Therefore, it is unlikely that Gu Kun wants to obviously deceive Zhu Youdong on a big issue.

Gu Kun's answer was very simple: "I know that in the final sprint stage of the Hong Kong stock battle, I can't spend so much money, and I don't plan to smash it all in, or at least wait for a wave of consolidation and correction after July."

However, in the stage of financing the debt-swap, we must use up our share and borrow as much as we can. In this way, we can prevent the Chinese people, or CCB and the higher existence behind CCB, from thinking about us otherwise. ”

Zhu Youdong was slightly alert in his heart: "What do you mean by this?

Gu Kun: "Quite simply, if we don't squeeze out the mortgage potential of the oilfield in full, but give the other party the opportunity to 'take more collateral shares and lend less', then the other party will have the impulse to 'hope that we can't pay us the money, so as to have the opportunity to officially start the debt-to-equity swap process'."

And what we are going to do after taking our money, the other party actually knows it. Whether we can afford to pay back the money depends on whether the international bulls are fully united and work together to kill Soros - now in the Hong Kong stock market, although the national team no longer continues to spend new money trays, they still have a lot of chips in the market, and there are many stock shares that have been precipitated by their positions.

If these stocks suddenly betray and run away, it will break us down. Therefore, we absolutely have to make sure that the interests of our collapse are far greater than the interests of Soros collapse, so that we can maintain this alliance most firmly until the last moment. I can't use that much money, but I have to borrow enough and let the financial system in Huaxia confirm that 'I can pay them back, at least more than if I can't afford to pay back and then raid my house.'"

As for 'even if I can afford the money, I will still take the initiative to invite Huaxia to invest in a part of the shares of Lanfang Oilfield', or 'even if I can afford the money, CCB and CNOOC can also take the initiative to request the execution of a part of the share of the convertible bonds', these are all extra sweetness, we can tell them now, confirm it in black and white, as for the specific proportion of foreign capital participation you think is allowed, this is your authority, I don't want to say anything. ”

Gu Kun's general principle is to ensure that all partners expect him to be able to afford it, and to maximize the interests of all allies when he can afford it.

Otherwise, the risk of backlash in the middle of the process is inevitable, which Gu Kun can't bear.

"It's still a virtuous son-in-law who can see it thoroughly, so what else is the holy ruling, you can do it as you like, and I will give you full authority. Zhu Youdong had to admit that he didn't see Gu Kunyuan yet.

Let him do it himself, maybe he won't be able to protect the most interests for the Lan side.

Let's grow flowers and raise birds.

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