"Did you really discover the oil field? Impossible, right? Conscience of heaven and earth, I was planning to let the people of CNOOC come and play those foreign devils with me from the beginning! You didn't make me happy, did you?"

A few hours later, in the Zhaoming Palace.

When Gu Kun heard Tang Jia and Mr. Yang of CNOOC Overseas Company, who had just arrived by plane, jointly report the good news to him, what he performed was such a natural and just right kind of sincere surprise.

It was as if he had no idea that Lan Fang had oil, and everything was a complete accident.

This acting skill can be called the actor.

No way, if he is not enough actor, he will be too sorry for Grand Duke Zhu Youdong.

Most of these islands, these lands, these coastal territorial waters, and the rights and interests of exclusive economic zones were bought by Gu Kun only last year. If he had known in advance that there was oil, Zhu Youdong would not have been so angry that he had a heart attack.

Therefore, even if it was just for Zhu Youdong's face and health, Gu Kun had to insist on a surprised posture.

Tang Jia didn't realize the boss's hypocrisy at all, but felt that the boss's unbelievable appearance was exactly the same as her reaction a few hours ago, which was very intimate.

She spent a lot of words to make the details clear to Gu Kun.

“...... Now you believe it, right? The data is so detailed, it has a nose and an eye, it can't be fake. It can only be said that you are the one who is destined to return, the chosen one, and God will help you to discover a big oil field at this juncture!

At present, the estimated reserves are about 22~2.5 billion barrels, and the difference will not be too large. However, because it is a shallow sea, the cost of mining is higher than that of onshore self-blowout wells, about ten dollars per barrel and close to twenty, and the cost may be reduced if the technology of shallow sea platforms advances in the future. So, the financial value of these oils may not be as high as imagined. ”

As Tang Jia gradually reported to more professional data, Gu Kun gradually took advantage of the situation to accept his surprise and began to become serious, listening carefully to the detailed quantitative analysis.

The oil was found, but it was just a shot in the arm. There are many factors to consider when it comes to economic value, and it is not something that can be determined by just looking at the reserves.

The biggest problem is the cost of extraction and transportation.

According to the oil extraction technology at this stage from the end of the 90s to the outbreak of the Iraq War in 03, the mining cost of the kowtow machine in the general land formation of more than 1,000 meters deep ranges from 7 to 10 US dollars per barrel.

The cheapest is the kind of self-spraying well of the big dog, which doesn't even need a kowtow machine, and the oil will be sprayed out by digging a hole in the ground, and the cost is only 3 yuan a barrel

(This is one of the reasons why the big dogs don't have as much oil as Venezuela, but they have a bigger say than Venezuela.) In addition to the old Maracaibo oil field, which has a very low production cost, the Orinoco River Delta, the other major oil storage areas in Venezuela, are all estuarine shallow sea oil fields.

In addition, the self-blowing well is not sprayed by itself forever, because after the formation pressure is released, it is still pumped by a kowtow machine. The formation conditions are particularly superior, and many wells can be sprayed continuously for three or five years before the pressure is released. ）

Submarine oil fields are generally more expensive to exploit than surface oil fields (except for tundra areas, where the Siberian permafrost may be higher than some submarine oil fields), and sea depth and sea conditions are generally differentiated.

The most famous Breton oil field in the North Sea is the more expensive one. Because of the high winds and waves in the North Sea, the Brent oil field is far from the mainland and the sea is very deep. $25 a barrel is easy to go up, and there are more than 30 bad weather, according to today's oil prices, basically no money is made, just to ensure the safety of oil.

Gu Kun's oil field on Lanfang's side is the cheapest among the submarine oil fields for the time being, because it is very close to the mainland, and closer to the land than the oil fields in Brunei next door. So the sea is very shallow, basically tens of meters deep.

In addition, the equatorial windless zone and no wind, wave and climate disasters can further reduce the construction standard of the drilling platform.

Therefore, the assessment given by CNOOC is like this.

"If you start working now, you can control the cost of a barrel of oil to $18. If you don't rush to mine, wait a little longer, and wait until the technology that is still in the early stages of research and development matures before launching, it can be further reduced to less than $15. However, the long-term term should not be less than $12 in the future. ”

These words were personally said to Gu Kun by Mr. Yang of CNOOC Overseas Company, and confirmed by a chief engineer surnamed Zhu brought by Mr. Yang.

After talking about the technical part, Mr. Yang did not forget to remind kindly: "However, whether to wait, but also consider the international crude oil market, if the future expectations are not clear, I suggest that it is appropriate to prepare."

The current international crude oil price is 37 US dollars per barrel, which is 5 yuan cheaper than the 42 US dollars at the peak of the Gulf War in 91~92. Oil does not rise all the time, and it mainly depends on the game of long and short parties. Especially in the current wave of Southeast Asian financial crisis, because of your confrontation with Soros, the bulls are strong.

There are some external funds on the short side before, which have been shaken in advance, and this wave did not go all out to follow up Soros, but turned to the Korean market where you and our other Chinese capital forces are destined not to protect the market, and some people have gone to the Lucia market after a little harvest in the Korean market. In the event of a financial collapse in Lucia, a massive increase in crude oil production is expected, and this expectation could lead to oil prices not rising for at least the next two years.

As for the next wave of oil bullish market factors, I think it will be necessary for us to join the WTO and further integrate into the stimulation of international trade in the global industrial chain. ”

What Mr. Yang said is really reasonable. Gu Kun also had to admit that he should take a look at the CEO of a central enterprise.

It can be said that except for the future Nine Demons and the Iraq War, this Mr. Yang can't analyze it. He guessed the medium- and long-term consequences that might result from the spread of the financial crisis to Northeast Asia, such as South Korea and Lucia, and even the impact of China's accession to the WTO in the future.

In fact, there has always been no shortage of visionary people in China's central enterprises, for example, if you are really a person who is deeply immersed in the telecommunications industry, you can listen to the internal speeches of some executives of China Telecom and China Unicom 08 years ago, you can know that these people have an understanding of 3G4G long-term applications and mobile Internet breakthroughs, and may even be more awesome than Tengyun.

But some things are like this, you can't help it if you know it, who makes you in a central enterprise and can't do things. The business that is seen is still done by private enterprises that gamble on their lives, and the gap is not in the horizon.

Let's just say that this time the Southeast Asian financial crisis, although the winner has not been completely decided, but in fact, history has quietly changed from the beginning of each stage of the layout.

Gu Kun's previous harsh words, the posture of making Southeast Asian countries put on a posture of unity, and even making Buffett come forward to look down on Soros will affect the judgment of the quasi-bearish forces.

Those who are not determined will not follow Soros to the death, and they will also be divided and disintegrated internally.

Some people moved to Northeast Asia in advance, thinking that those places were either used to being dogs of the Oceanic countries and could be harvested casually and did not dare to rebel against their masters, or they had been weak and bullying for six years since the disintegration of Lucia, and the internal oligarchs were chaotic, and they went there to harvest.

(Note: Many post-90s and post-00s may not know about Lucia in the late 90s, and mistakenly think that Lucia has always been tough.) This is a misconception. At the end of the 90s, Lucia in Ye Mouqin's era was a mess, from beginning to end, oligarchs divided into dirt, and foreign capital was harvested together. So even if the financial power in the north is not so strong, as long as Lucia's oligarchs are willing to sell the country with them, it is still possible to succeed, and Soros will dare to do it if they don't go.

Lucia in the Ye era is not at all the same style as the iron-fisted tough image of the later P-Jing era. It can even be said that the transformation of Lucia's national style has a lot to do with the fact that it was affected by the financial crisis and harvested at the end of the 90s. ）

So in fact, the enemy Gu Kun is facing now is weaker than in the original history, and he has already been divided.

It's just that Gu Kun didn't think much about the fate of South Korea and helped in the past, and Lucia also tended to go with the flow and not change history too much (anyway, Gu Kun had no interests in those places)

In this way, "Lucia has become tough because of the sniping, re-nationalized the oil industry and increased production", which is a high probability**.

Until 2001, stagflation in oil prices was inevitable.

After China's accession to the WTO in 01, 02 will start the rise process with a slight warm-up, as for the real explosive rise, it still has to wait for the outbreak of the Iraq war in 03, and then the super bull market in oil prices that lasts for five or six years.

For Gu Kun, the best way is to pinch the oil first, take all the legal interests, survey and prepare, but do not exploit, at least hold it for 3 years.

The best is to start gradual construction in 01 and full mass production in 03.

"Mr. Yang is right, I probably think that after the Lucia people are affected by the financial war, it may lead to two years of stagflation in oil prices. Moreover, international investment has been more popular with the concept of the Internet recently, and global technology investment has a tendency to favor media retreat, and no real assets can rise.

In my opinion, although the Chinese side is working hard to join the WTO negotiations, but at least there are still two or three rounds of confrontation, 02 years to join the good good, we will follow that point in time as the benchmark, to reserve technology, deploy mass production. What specific investment is needed and how to cooperate, please give me a set of plans from Mr. Yang. By the way, help me assess how much money this oil field can be estimated at the financial level according to this model. What if I am willing to use oil field collateral or make equity bonds? ”

Listening to Gu Kun's meaning, Mr. Yang also knew in his heart that he really planned to contract to CNOOC in one stop.

In that case, the rest is easy to say. A slight overestimation of extraction costs and gross profit per barrel is not a problem.