After chatting about the vital interests related to the valuation of shares, Ma Feng is still relatively temperamental, and basically has something to say about the battle of business views between friends.

It's not a big deal to have different views, you can seek common ground while reserving differences.

It is based on this consideration that he somewhat distances himself from Gu Kun's current goal of the luxury industry, and some sincerely regrets his friends.

If all this money had been thrown into the Internet venture capital industry, he would have been able to be the chief godfather of the domestic Internet industry a long time ago.

Of course, Gu Kun didn't want to say that he felt that there was a bubble in the future and would burst. However, after 20 years of superficial understanding of the pros and cons of the Internet, it was enough for him to casually say a few serious problems to justify his wait-and-see attitude.

Gu Kun picked up the teacup and took a sip: "Old Ma, don't you think that the Internet circle is a little too chaotic now." Warren Buffett once said that I am greedy when others are afraid, and I am afraid when others are greedy. Although many people ridiculed Buffett for taking a blind eye and missing an opportunity in the Internet boom, I think the truth behind these two aphorisms is not wrong and can be applied at any time.

Therefore, when I invest in an Internet company, I either have the endorsement of other dignitaries, such as Yingke Digital, which voted for Li Ergongzi. Either the business model itself has already run through, such as investing in you. In addition to these two types of situations, I don't think I'll be able to sell this year or next, and I won't invest in other companies that don't have revenue until the heat subsides. ”

"I remember you started voting in '96, right? That's not what you thought back then, when the Internet wasn't as hot as it is now. Ma Feng couldn't help but use Gu Kun's own historical record to refute and remind Gu Kun.

Gu Kun: "At this time and that time, the total amount of the Internet concept circle was still relatively small, and I think I can explain who they want to replace, and the target industry that they dismembered can afford to support such a large market." But the Internet world is so arrogant that they almost think they can replace everything. ”

Ma Feng thought for a while and confirmed: "Do you always think that the imagination of the Internet industry is limited to replacing the industries of communication, media and advertising and marketing? So, do you think that when the valuation of all companies in the Internet industry has exceeded the sum of all traditional communication media advertising companies in the world, this is an absolute bubble?"

This is a very classic industry substitution thinking, and I always feel that the total industry revenue of low-cost alternatives is lower than the total industry revenue of high-cost solutions in the old era.

But have you ever thought that after any new thing replaces the old thing, reduces costs and improves efficiency, the final scale of use will far exceed the old format. For example, you can't say that the total revenue of the automobile industry is lower than that of the carriage industry because the unit capacity cost of the car is lower, because there will be more people in the car after you have a car, and the final total scale will definitely exceed that of the carriage industry in the past.

In the same way, after the emergence of a new generation of communication tools, even if the communication cost of each person decreases by an order of magnitude, the total communication demand will increase by at least two orders of magnitude. How many calls do people make when they make a few dollars a minute on the phone? Now with Boss Wu's PHS, the number of people making calls and the duration of individual calls have increased so many times, and couples can talk for half an hour when they have nothing to do. From this point of view, there is a lot of room for imagination in new technologies. ”

The cost reduction brought about by each technological upgrade will induce new massive demand in areas that the ancients could not see.

Ma Feng's point of view is obviously based on such a level of cognition, and it has to be said that this level of cognition is an unbreakable truth most of the time, which has been verified by the history of several generations of industrial songs.

Reading history can tell the rise and fall.

It's a pity that Gu Kun didn't plan to debate with him in the first place, nor did he want to accept it head-on from this angle.

Gu Kun pointed out sharply: "No, no, no, I don't agree with you saying that 'the advantages of the Internet over traditional media come from the cost reduction caused by technology'. So if you use the formula of science and technology, the premise is not completely true, and you have to discount it.

Is the Internet much more convenient than TV media? As a result, yes, you can call it anytime and anywhere, and you can actively search for it, and you have more freedom in the time and space you use.

However, this kind of freedom is only a small part brought by technology, and a greater part comes from the convenience of infringement and the convenience of getting rid of the legal supervision of various countries. In other words, many things done by Internet media are illegal and infringing on traditional media, but the current network has no borders, and piracy and all kinds of so-called resource sharing can be set up in foreign countries, so no one can control it.

This is not a technological bonus, but a lawless bonus. I don't think too highly of the crime bonus, at least I have to realize that there is an upper limit to the crime bonus, that is, the upper limit of the normal legal interests that it infringes.

However, according to my current observations, most Internet investors in the circle are not aware of this, and their fanaticism has pushed up valuations that exceed the sum of all the infringed legitimate interests that cannot be relied upon, which is too dangerous.

Many people think that the Internet is free and has zero marginal costs, so there is no limit to imagination, but in fact it is not free, but an illegal transaction that is not fully valued at the moment.

FOR EXAMPLE, I AM ON A PERSONAL WEBSITE TODAY, LOOKING AT THE PIRATED BOARD UPLOADED BY THE WEBMASTER, CAN YOU SAY THAT THIS IS FREE? NO, IN FACT, USERS SELL THEIR OWN COOKIE TRACES AND MANY OTHER WAYS, SELLING THEIR PRIVACY, THE RIGHT TO BE COUNTED AND THE LAW OF BEHAVIOR, THE RIGHT NOT TO WATCH ADVERTISEMENTS OR THE RIGHT NOT TO BE DISTURBED, AND SO ON, IN EXCHANGE FOR NOTHING.

In the future, Internet technology will definitely continue to develop further, and there will be more and more human rights that can be sold, and these rights are not allowed to be traded, priced, or sold in the traditional technology era. The free nature of the Internet is based on showing you pirated copies with one hand and handing over power with the other. If we don't see this hand-to-hand handover, then the upper limit of investors' imagination in the Internet industry will exceed the total price of the above-mentioned rights and interests that all mankind can sell, and the bubble will definitely burst. ”

The reason is simple, under traditional laws and business models, many human rights cannot be disposed of, so it is illegal to commit suicide and sell one's own organs - if it is not illegal, it will increase the degree of exploitation of the weak by the powerful, for example, it will lead to the rampant organ and human trafficking industry.

THEREFORE, EVEN IF A PERSON IS GOING TO STARVE TO DEATH, UNDER MODERN LAW, HE IS STILL NOT ALLOWED TO SELL SHEN IN THE FORM OF SELLING MAI PEOPLE, AND MODERN CIVILIZATION DOES NOT ALLOW SLAVE TRADE.

In the same way, a considerable part of the Internet's theft dividends are just a trading channel for people who cannot sell their dignity, privacy, and personality in the traditional technology and legal environment.

The most straightforward example is that the essay question of the later judicial examination was also tested: "Whole body body chat" is neither the crime of selling YIN, nor the crime of disseminating obscure materials (not recorded and in the form of streaming media does not count). If it is copied and sold in a preserved manner, it is of the same nature as selling cat films, and it is still convicted of 'disseminating obscure items for profit', because the definition of the element of 'article' in this article must be storable and reproducible. If the data is lost after the one-on-one chat, it is not counted as an item.

This is the most classic stroke of genius in the fourth subject of the judicial examination in a certain year, and if you study law, you also have to answer the Internet professional technical terms such as 'streaming media does not have the storability and reproducibility of things' in order to get a full score. Pure liberal arts students who only understand law and have no technical knowledge were basically wiped out at this scoring point that year. ）

It can be seen that with the Internet, many things that could not be sold in violation of the law can be sold slightly, although there are still rules.

Therefore, after all, this imaginary space cannot exceed the total price of the personality rights and privacy rights of all mankind after they are fully valued.

It's just that in 98 and 99, when the investors were in the Internet frenzy, they didn't have the opportunity to calculate the question of "how much money can be sold for all human beings who voluntarily sell their human dignity and privacy, and envy and envy others", and feel that this number is infinite.

But of course Gu Kun knew.

Because how big the total scale of the theft industry in later generations can be means how much it covers the total value of human privacy and human dignity.

When those industries have changed back to genuine, the tipping point will be calculated.

"Can the account be counted like this? The so-called free, in fact, is just a 'mud transaction with the right to see in one hand, and the right to privacy and respect in the other......'? This vision is really shocking, why does it sound like it is not unreasonable......"

After Ma Feng was refreshed by these words, he suddenly felt shocked.

What a brainstorm.

But if you think about it, the kind of technology that can be used to price and quantitatively analyze the rights that people can't trade can definitely be made. As long as the benefits are large enough, data refinement and deep mining are an inevitable trend in history.

Gu Kun picked up the teacup and took a sip at the end: "What do you think? That's why I only invest in an Internet company like you that charges membership fees and has a traditional and simple business model." I don't want to invest in those companies that are purely free. They're free, just because they're too rough and unprofessional for the time being, and we shouldn't be proud of being unprofessional.

Moreover, after all, I am a Lanfang person, and I am known for my luxury and forced character in the Chinese world, and it will be detrimental to my forced character to invest in those things that are free for people to use. A gentleman has something to do and something to do, so even if there is quick money to make those free things for the time being, I have to think about my reputation and personality for the rest of my life. ”

Even in 2020, Gu Kun is only in his 40s, and people are growing, and you can't do such a thing as bleaching for people.

We have to look at the long term, and we can't rush forward with flies that are as profitable as S.

To take the simplest example, the slut business of beeping and taxis, Gu Kun will never touch it in his life, and even hide away from it like avoiding shit. Because touching it will make the whole personality cheaper, and you can't go back for a lifetime.