A week after Zhu Jingye's affair passed.

History has quietly entered the late spring of March, and the southern country is already full of vitality.

Since the reason why Zhu Jingye was killed, it was that he leaked the movements of the Lan Fang Royal Fund and Gu Kun's own funds, which had a negative impact on the subsequent "Southeast Asian financial self-defense".

Then of course Gu Kun has to act in a full set, and he can't let Zhu Jingye die in vain. He immediately shifted his focus from stimulating investment with the Malays to infrastructure and back to currency defense.

Five months have passed since the Thai baht crisis, and Gu Kun has once again returned to Xiangjiang with a high profile. His status in the rivers and lakes is also very different from half a year ago.

The whole Xiangjiang River, up and down, also felt the unsettling silence before the mountain rain was about to come.

Liang Jinsong, President of Blackstone Fund Asia Pacific, personally greeted this major customer at Kai Tak Airport, and reported the current market situation to Gu Kun as soon as possible: "Gu Sheng, I hope you have not changed your original intention. ”

Gu Kun waved his hand, sat in the back seat of the car, and motioned to drive: "Of course, I came this time to compete head-on with Soros, and I believe that the authorities in Xiangjiang and the mainland will show the determination and courage when they 'promised that the RMB will not depreciate' to resist those miscellaneous pieces." ”

Liang Jinsong's expression was not calm, but his brows were tightened: "You have this heart, of course it is the best." I am also a native of Xiangjiang, and I don't want to watch Xiangjiang being harvested. However, Soros's tricks this time are not the same as those against Thailand and Indonesia last year.

I'm afraid that even if you count on policy intervention, it won't necessarily be effective. A person as smart as Soros will escalate every time he uses a strategy, and it is difficult to count on killing him by cracking his old tricks. ”

Gu Kun actually knew that Soros had changed his tactics and upgraded in history, but Liang Jinsong said it so solemnly, he didn't hesitate to humbly listen to it again: "Be specific." ”

Liang Jinsong cleared his throat and lowered his voice: "That's the case, last year in Thailand and Indonesia, Soros was mainly bearish on the exchange rate of the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah, which is actually relatively simple, just to watch everyone throw money at each other." Soros's own funds are not much, but the leverage ratio is high and he is bold enough. The money leveraged by the bears is larger than that of the bulls, and he wins.

However, this time, judging from the structure of building positions that has gradually surfaced recently, he should have used a compound type of position building, attacking the foreign exchange market and the stock market in parallel! This situation is much more complicated than last year, and I am afraid that those who still expect to use last year's experience and only increase the amount of funds to win the confrontation will not be able to bear it. ”

Gu Kun listened very carefully, although he knew history, but those interpretations in his previous life did not come from the face-to-face analysis of professionals, but only some information found on the Internet.

Now it seems that before Soros officially started to do it on the Hong Kong dollar, many operations were quite transparent, at least more transparent than when he did it to the Thai baht.

It is clear that this transparency is a kind of demonstration, an attempt to intimidate the wavering financial forces, so as to exploit the panic of those who swing to his advantage.

And the specific principle of this operation is actually very simple:

First of all, as we all know, when there is a risk of depreciation of a currency, in order to resist the depreciation, the authorities generally use two tricks: one is to directly take out a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and the authorities will swallow all the local currency for US dollars.

This kind of operation does not have any technical content, that is, whether a country's foreign exchange reserves are enough and not thick enough. However, with the increase of international capital and leverage to more than 100 billion US dollars, it is often not possible to rely on hard pick-up, and there are not so many dollars for you to burn.

Therefore, the second measure as an auxiliary means is to raise interest rates in the local currency.

For example, when the Thai baht was sniped before, Thailand did not have so many dollars to exchange, so it chose to raise interest rates. The annual interest rate increased from 10% before the crisis to 12.5% at once, and finally increased to 15% after it could not hold on.

Most people can understand this principle: if the interest rate of saving Thai baht is 10% higher than that of saving US dollars, then even if the Thai baht depreciates by 10% against the US dollar within a year, it is equivalent to no depreciation.

And because most people don't like the tossing principle, interest rate hikes can generally offset at least two or three times the size of the currency depreciation. In other words, if the interest rate of the Thai baht is 10% higher than that of the US dollar, it may depreciate by 25% in a year, and the people will continue to let the baht deposit lie there because they are "too lazy to run to the bank and do not want to move".

It's just that this time the Thai baht fell by more than half, which is so obvious that even those who don't care about current affairs can't sit still, so the 10% interest difference can't bear it.

Now, Soros wants to attack the Hong Kong dollar, and the banking system on the Hong Kong side will definitely use the trick of raising interest rates to combat the outflow of funds caused by depreciation.

However, in the financial market, the linkage of various blocks is very strong. Interest is a weapon that is related to all aspects, not just foreign exchange.

As we all know, in many countries, raising and lowering interest rates is an important means to stimulate or cool the economy. Generally, when people are encouraged to invest and people are forced to spend their money, banks will cut interest rates. On the other hand, if investment is already overheated and the bubble is relatively large, banks will raise interest rates and attract money back to bank deposits.

Therefore, anyone with a little common sense can see that every time the bank raises interest rates, all investment markets will cool down, housing prices will fall, or at least the rise will not be so fast, and the stock market, futures, and various other financial speculative markets will also slow down when interest rates are raised.

The biggest difference between Soros's sniping of Hong Kong and Thailand is that he not only shorted the Hong Kong dollar, but also shorted Hong Kong stocks at the same time, and bought a large amount of short options on the Hang Seng Index.

The term for this thing is called "Futures Contract", which is the prototype of the "flesh-faced flying dragon Ferrari" in the movie "King of a Thousand Kings" (that is, the role played by director Wang Fatzi himself).

At that time, if the Hong Kong dollar really falls, then shorting the short position of the Hong Kong dollar will allow Soros to make a lot of money.

If the banks in Hong Kong want to cooperate with foreign exchange management, they will use interest rate hikes to curb the outflow of Hong Kong dollars. So as long as the interest rate is raised, the overall downward trend of Hong Kong stocks will also be regarded as a high probability event by the world, and all people in the stock market will panic and withdraw their capital to cash, and Soros will be able to make money in the short futures contract of the Hang Seng Index.

Some laymen may ask: Since this trick is so awesome, why was it useless half a year ago?

The reason is simple, because Xiangjiang is the first Southeast Asian financial center attacked by Soros, and only Xiangjiang has such a large stock market.

In Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, maybe Soros also wanted to, but Thailand doesn't have a decent stock market at all - it's not that there are no stock exchanges and listed companies, but even if there are, the number is too small, the total investment scale is too small, and the total market value of the Thai stock market is a drop in the bucket compared to the foreign exchange market of the Thai baht, and it cannot provide hedging.

It's like you can't expect a cup to catch a jar after it breaks. Only the size of the foreign exchange stock market of one local currency is on the same order of magnitude, and both are cylinders, so that there is a basis for hedging with each other.

The scale of Xiangjiang's stock market is too large, which can fully support the capacity of the entire Hong Kong dollar ecology and Soros's tricks.

......

Gu Kun listened very carefully, and he really received some details that he had never noticed in his previous life.

After listening, he cheered Liang Jinsong in turn: "Soros is actually very rampant now - how his position is built, how large it is, even a professional observer like you can roughly see it, it can be seen that he does not have the mentality of 'wanting to keep it secret at the beginning' when he was doing baht, which is a good thing." ”

Liang Jinsong initially focused on the anxiety about Soros's momentum, but did not notice the contrast between Soros's two operations on the high-profile/low-key issue.

After listening to Gu Kun's reminder, he came back a little: "You mean, Soros deliberately did not keep it secret, just to increase panic, which is a kind of active advocacy?"

Gu Kun: "Of course, you have to think like this: is it common sense that bank interest rate hikes will cause the stock market to fall, or is it a natural phenomenon?"

Liang Jinsong was stunned: "What's the difference? You're not playing a word game to define yourself, are you?"

Gu Kun: "Of course, it's not a wordplay by definition, it's common sense, it's 'everyone knows what happens to a thing, and then it does'."

And the natural phenomenon is, 'whether you know it will be like this or not, it will be like this.'" In behavioral terms, the former belongs to the second-order chaotic system, and the latter belongs to the first-order chaotic system. ”

Liang Jinsong reacted quickly: "Of course, 'interest rate hikes will fall' is common sense, and the interest itself is not much, the key is that the chain of suspicion is terrible." People will think, 'If the interest rate is raised, it will definitely affect the stock market, even if I am rational and unmoved, but I don't know how much most timid people in this world will be scared.'" As long as they can't stand the scare, a lot of money flees, falls, I will be affected, so I will run'. ”

The stock market was not directly collapsed by the natural event of interest rate hikes, but by people's chain of suspicion.

This is also why when Thailand raised the interest rate of the Thai baht, Thailand's poor stock market was actually not as affected as the current Hong Kong stock market - because Thais are more Buddhist, they are more chronic in investment, and they are not as smart and sensitive as the Chinese. And Buddhism is contagious, as long as you have the expectation that "other leeks are more Buddhist than me, and this little fluctuation is estimated that they will not run", you are not so easy to panic.

The intensity of the stock and foreign exchange market response to stimulus is directly proportional to the general treacherous nature of the people in the region, and the more professional the people, the smaller the stimulus can magnify the greater the volatility.

This is also why after many institutions in later generations used artificial intelligence to automate high-frequency trading, a slight market fluctuation event can cause an uproar - for example, an oil well in Brent in the North Sea exploded, and maybe global oil futures can fluctuate for a while.

Because when using human attention to analyze these things, such a small perturbation variable is simply not qualified to be noticed. However, when artificial intelligence combined with big data analysis is used, all relying on 24-hour sleepless machines to automate trading, the energy of the machine is endless, and the machine feels that this disturbance should theoretically make the oil price rise by tens of thousands, but when all the machines go to buy together for this tens of thousands, the result is far from one in tens of thousands.

Xiangjiang is more dangerous than Thailand, just because there are too many people in Xiangjiang who stare at the market and want to run away as soon as there is a storm.

To deal with Soros, we must first realize that the biggest danger is not Soros's own funds, but these wall grasses.

The wallhead grass is the most fond of the wall to be pushed by everyone, and when these wallhead grasses have an avalanche of sheep, the amount of funds may be directly controlled by Soros.

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