After arriving in Xiangjiang, Gu Kun spent a few days roughly probing Soros's opening of the position, and finally found out the enemy's situation.

Because whether it is the stock market or the foreign exchange market, Soros is the party that wants to be short, so it is necessary to open a position in advance. According to semi-public information, the first batch of positions began to be built at the beginning of the year, and by the end of February, they were almost completely completed.

Inserting a little popular science, in the market of margin financing and securities lending, people who generally "short sell securities by securities lending" have to open positions long in advance, because the essence of this operation, translated in human language, is "first borrow shares/foreign exchange to sell, and then buy shares and repay shares after the redemption period". So if you don't give enough time to open a position, you may not be able to borrow that many shares at all.

And "financing long", that is, those who "borrow money to buy shares first, and sell shares to repay the money after the redemption period", is the opposite. When buying and opening a position, it can be built relatively quickly, but it will be slower when it comes to the stage when you want to cash out and turn into money again at the final high. Because it is easy to smash the stock price again if you are in a hurry, you must have enough patience to slowly lure leeks and pick-up man.

Relatively speaking, one is slow in and fast out, and the other is fast in and slow out.

Soros is slow in and fast out this time, so it took a long time to build a position, and when he really wants to launch a general attack, it can be completed as quickly as an avalanche.

Therefore, most of the options chosen by Soros are medium and long-term terms, and like last year, they are mainly half-yearly - so the position built in January will basically have to be returned by the end of June.

Perhaps some positions can be closed in advance, but in general, it can be sooner rather than later, and when the deadline is reached, it will be forced to close out across the board.

In the next three months, how the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index will move will determine how much money Soros can eventually scrape off in the two markets, or lose money.

In addition to the term, Gu Kun also had a general understanding of the current opening price in the market through Blackstone Fund and other investment institutions.

At the end of last year, the initial price of the Hong Kong dollar was 7 yuan 8 to 1 US dollar. At the beginning of the year, the price of Soros was 7.885 before the offensive.

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index was already at more than 13,000 points at the end of last year – the previous peak was 16,000 points. But Soros can't build a position based on the highest level, so the average cost of his "securities borrowing" is 13,000 to 14,000 points.

To put it bluntly, as long as at the end of June, when Soros's large position must be delivered, the Hong Kong dollar is less than 7 yuan against the US dollar 9 Hong Kong dollars to 1 US dollar, Soros will be able to make money on options in the foreign exchange market.

Similarly, at the same time, if the Hang Seng Index is between 13,000 and 14,000 points, then Soros's futures contracts on the stock market are basically neither profitable nor losing.

If it is less than 13,000 points, he can make a lot of money in the futures index contract, and the exact amount of money is equal to the leverage multiplier multiplied by the percentage of the index below 13,000 points (13,000 points is 100%).

If it is higher than 14,000 points, then Soros must be a huge loss, and the proportional algorithm is similar to the previous one.

……

Monday, March 9.

After all the preparations stopped, it was finally time to make a decision.

Liang Jinsong provided him with all the relevant information:

"The main short and long positions in the market at the moment are basically investigated. The current exchange rate is 7 yuan, 9 cents and 8 yuan, and the foreign exchange administration is still using daily liquidity to maintain the exchange rate, but it is estimated that there is a high probability that it will fall below 8 yuan this week.

As for the interest rate hike, the effect of the first rate hike this year has been almost released, and it is estimated that there will be a second rate hike in the near future. At present, the Hang Seng Index is 10,0060 points, which is nearly 3,000 points lower than our estimate of Soros's opening price, are you sure you want to enter the market now?

At present, the total market capitalization of Hang Seng is more than 3.5 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and more than 200,000 semi-annual short indices on the market have been piled up, while all short indices in previous years combined, the peak has not exceeded 50,000. ”

What Gu Kun wants to do is to be long, so it is much more convenient for him to open a position than Soros, and he does not need to take a large part of the time in advance.

Especially when there are already big shorts entering the market, Gu Kun is equivalent to just doing it directly.

Similar to "Gu Kun first bought all the large-cap stocks that are currently depressed in stock prices, and when Soros wanted to borrow shares to sell short in June, Gu Kun threw the large-cap stocks he bought now to Soros to take over."

As long as Gu Kun ensures that the stock price of the market on the day of Soros's forced liquidation is higher than the stock price when Gu Kun opened the position now, then Gu Kun will have to make money.

This is equivalent to Soros having to stay in the arena for five or six months, while Gu Kun can only stay for three months.

In the case of inconsistent entry times between the two, it is not simply to say "Soros earns, Gu Kun will definitely lose", nor is it "Gu Kun earns, Soros will definitely lose", because the range of the two is different.

In other words, for example, when Soros first started short the stock market, it was 13,000 points, no matter how it fluctuated in the middle, as long as it was less than 13,000 when he forced to close his position in June, Soros would have earned.

But in this six-month range, the lowest trough may only be 10,000 points, or even 8,000 points, if Gu Kun opens a position in the middle, then as long as Gu Kun sells higher than 10,000 points in the end, Gu Kun will also earn.

In this way, assuming that the final liquidation in June was 11,500 points, then it can be said that in the field of futures contract trading, Gu Kun and Soros each earned 1,500 points.

Because Gu Kun is "sure that it will be higher than B when the time comes", and Soros is "sure that it will be lower than A when the time comes", in the case that A is higher than B, as long as it stays between AB in the end, in fact, everyone earns.

And the loss may be the bulls who entered the market earlier and higher than Gu Kun.

After all, Hong Kong stocks are a melting pot, with trillions of funds to play in, and Gu Kun and Soros are just one of the players.

In fact, in the history of previous lives, after the confrontation of the Hong Kong dollar, there were several interpretations about who earned and who lost, whether Soros made a small profit and spit back more than half of it, or returned home completely.

Some believe that the Xiangjiang authorities have succeeded in protecting the plate and successfully repelling the international tourist capital, and have won a complete victory. Some people think that international travel funds are just making easy money, and in the end, they are not willing to gnaw on the wind anymore.

The reason for this disagreement is mainly because there is a big gap between the starting point of the Xiangjiang authorities and the point where Soros initially opened a position.

Some people believe that the average price at which Soros opened a position is 12,000 points, while the .asxs. of Hong Kong stocks is 7,800,000, with a gap of 4,000 points in the middle. Then at the end of the battle, when you collect 10,000 and a few hundred, it is equivalent to the disk protector successfully holding up two or three thousand, but Soros also saw that the situation was not good, and immediately ran away with the more than 1,000 points he earned.

(The reason why historical review cannot accurately define whether Soros lost money or not is because "the average price at which Soros completed the opening of the position" is a trade secret, and it is still impossible to verify after many years, and it is all speculation from all parties.) But in fact, it is impossible to be bearish at the highest level, depending on how far the average point of his bears is from the highest level)

In this life, Gu Kun doesn't know how much the average price of Soros is, but history has been changed. Gu Kun only knew that the principle was unchanging.

He obviously disdains the simplicity of "just making a little bit of the cognitive difference with Soros", but he will not be stupid to be a high-position bull.

There is no contradiction between him doing great things and making sure that his interests are maximized at the same time.

For example, he can start to be bullish from more than 8,000 points, but he will definitely not hold on to his early 10,000s and be satisfied when he earns money.

He wants to continue to chase after the poor, especially to encourage other forces to chase after the poor together, and it is best to hold the Hang Seng Index above 14,000 points to ensure that Soros is a huge loss.

After understanding all these data, Gu Kun also knew how to order:

"There is no rush to open a position in the stock market at the moment. Let's start by buying Hong Kong dollars in the foreign exchange market. According to the principle of the foreign exchange market first, especially when I saw the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar recently, if it falls below the 8 yuan mark, try to buy a little to see the wind direction.

Generally speaking, in order to break the confidence of the other party, when the bears break through the 8-block mark, they will definitely increase their weight instantly, strive to rush over in one go, and by the way, crush the determination of the authorities to protect this point. If our buying move is mistaken for a mysterious buy order by the authorities to protect the disk, which stimulates the fighting spirit of the short sellers in the foreign exchange market, then we will slow down and wait for a new wave of interest rate hikes and other protective measures to appear in the future, and then resolutely protect the market.

However, if we pull the exchange rate back from eight to within eight yuan, and the bears do not smash the confidence of the foreign exchange market again, then I think the other party's center of gravity has shifted from the foreign exchange market to the stock market. We can confirm whether the stock market continues to fall and decide whether to buy more Hong Kong dollars. ”

Liang Jinsong pondered Gu Kun's arrangement for a moment, and his eyes lit up slightly: "You mean, do you think this can be used as a bargaining chip criterion for the other party in the foreign exchange market and the stock market?"

That's what Gu Kun meant.

Soros's ammunition is limited, and to buy Hong Kong stocks, you must use Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong stocks and securities lending must also be financed in Hong Kong dollars.

He frantically borrowed Hong Kong dollars with US dollars, and then sold Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars, and at the same time used Hong Kong dollars to borrow and lend securities, so there is a primary and secondary situation.

Gu Kun wants to find out at what point in time Soros transferred the main force from the foreign exchange market to the stock market, and at what point in time did the feint and the main attack switch - in fact, there is no certain amount of feint and main attack, it depends on which side is profitable and which side is weaker and incompetent.

If in this life, the determination of the foreign exchange market to protect the market is not as big as that of the stock market, maybe Soros will directly use the foreign exchange market as the main force to fake it, and these are inconclusive.

This is a very straightforward game of picking soft persimmons.

If Gu Kun wants to fight with the other party, first of all, he must not only test which of the two persimmons is soft, the foreign exchange market and the stock market, but also test the two persimmons, which one is softer in Soros's heart.

The hardness and softness of the objective reality are not the most important at this time, but the subjective judgment of the contrast between the soft and the hard in the hearts of your enemies is more important.

The specific benchmark is to see whether Soros is more determined when the Hong Kong dollar falls below 8 yuan, or when the Hang Seng Index falls below the 10,000-point mark.