Chapter 99: Plan and then Act

"Today's Yingke Digital and Xiangjiang Telecom are really cheap, and these Xiangjiang people are really as bad as SHI's ability to predict the trend of technology. They will only play pure finance in this life, and there is no other future. In terms of the spirit of struggle and innovation, it is really far worse than that of the people in the SAR on the other side of the river. ”

Looking at the stock prices of several test stocks that have opened positions today, Gu Kun's heart is really a little emotional.

Two years later, Heung Kong Telecom, which was actually worth 94 billion Hong Kong dollars, is now in this wave of stock market crash, at this moment, before Gu Kun entered the tray, the market value was only 24 billion Hong Kong dollars!

Only a quarter after two years.

Although Pacific Century Digital is also cheap, the current market value is only a few billion Hong Kong dollars, less than 10 billion. But after all, this company has nothing to do, that is, it claims to have invested in some projects in Silicon Valley and start-up Internet companies in the mainland, and Gu Kun thinks that it is only worth billions.

(In April '98, Yingke Digital didn't even invest in Tengyun, because Tengyun didn't exist now, and it wasn't established until November in history.) )

Regarding the fact that the telecommunications stocks represented by Xiangjiang Telecom are so undervalued, Gu Kun also asked Liang Jinsong, hoping that he would give an answer from a professional perspective.

However, Liang Jinsong's analysis surprised Gu Kun, because he didn't see it that way at all.

"Oh, boss, I don't agree with what you say at all, you want to say that Heung Kong Telecom has been depressed by a small half of its market value because of this stock market crash, which I admit - before Soros made waves, the total market value of Heung Kong Telecom was about 40 billion Hong Kong dollars, close to 500.

However, that figure is fully indicative of Heung Kong Telecom's future expectations – although its price-to-operating and price-to-book ratios are very good, and its cash flow and profit margins are also stable. However, Heung Kong Telecom represents the sunset industry.

It is engaged in traditional Big Brother communications, telephone services and cable TV signal services. Although it has recently claimed to be keeping up with the times and running its broadband business like other Internet infrastructure concept companies, it has neither come up with a budget plan with enough sincerity and determination, nor has it imported technology from Korean technology companies, and it will definitely be eliminated by new players in this track in the future. ”

Gu Kun was stunned when he heard this.

Then he realized that even Liang Jinsong, a smart mind who can rank among the top dozens in the financial circles of Xiangjiang, thinks so, which shows how big the overall bias of the Xiangjiang elite is on such issues and how deep the value depression space is.

The status of Xiangjiang Telecom in Xiangjiang is basically equivalent to Huaxia Telecom in the mainland of China, plus China Mobile, China Unicom, and a radio and television station. From fixed telephones to mobile phones (big brother) to cable TV signals, it is almost monopolized by Heung Kong Telecom, and it also operates a dial-up Internet business, but it is more conservative in terms of "broadband".

The most rare thing is that the company's business scope is not limited to Xiangjiang, it also has many subsidiaries and networking services in Southeast Asia, mobile phones and GPRS wireless data services, and even as far as Lijiapo.

However, such a good business and such a stable company, because it is a little slow to draw a pie, is not the first local in Xiangjiang to shout the slogan of "introducing Korean broadband technology/CDMA/3G wireless broadband service" (and Yingke Digital shouted), and as a result, it was spurned by the capital community who like to paint pies.

(South Korea was the first country in the world to commercialize 2.5G CDMA, and later 3G EVDO, before Oceania.) This must be admitted, South Koreans are very willing to spend money in the early stage of Internet construction, especially after being affected by the Southeast Asian financial crisis, all of South Korea's "infrastructure investment-driven economy" plans are tilted towards the construction of network infrastructure)

In addition, before this, especially before the collapse of the Internet bubble in 2000, the global technology industry has been permeated with "intergenerational songs can reverse the industry hegemon of the previous generation", so the industry boss status of the old hegemon, as long as the pie is drawn slowly, will soon be generally bearish.

Who let mankind simply "sum up" history? Standing at the juncture of '98, you can't say that investors in the technology stock sector are wrong when they see it this way.

Take the game console industry as an example, which can be regarded as a "high-tech predecessor model industry" that technology stock investors refer to today.

At the end of the 70s, Atari was in full swing, but in 83 years it exploded and there were no bones left, and the rookie Nintendo seized the industry dominance when it turned the page. Nintendo bull a generation of FC, and by the end of the 80s, it was inseparable from Sega, and there was no first-mover advantage at all. In the mid-90s, it was counterattacked by Sony, which made a game console for the first time.

So by the end of the 90s, the capital industry had become accustomed to the routine of "consumers of new technology products are lowly, have no historical loyalty to the brand, they will only pursue the freshest and most trendy new brands, and now the company should be eliminated and underestimated when it comes to technological iteration".

As for Sony's plot of "the world's first PS2 in the PS era is still the world's first, and PS3PS4 will maintain world hegemony from generation to generation", investors haven't seen it yet, and it hasn't been staged yet.

They used the historical experiences of technology companies to deduce the future, but they miscalculated in this generation, who is to blame?

"Hehe, since the investment community of Xiangjiang technology stocks generally likes to look at the pie and does not like to do practical things, and estimates the low price of good companies that do low-key practical things, then I just do the opposite completely, and give priority to these stocks in the early stage!"

Originally, Gu Kun still didn't dare to be so bold, it was professionals like Liang Jinsong who looked at this kind of problem to such an extent, which made Gu Kun believe in the short-sightedness and blindness of his peers in the late 90s.

Therefore, the best way to play is to grasp the general direction of "which categories and characteristics of stocks should be long", which is grasped by Gu Kun, a prophet.

The professional details of indicators such as "specifically looking at the disk of each stock, historical record price-earnings ratio, price-to-business ratio, price-to-book ratio, ......" and other indicators are controlled by Liang Jinsong.

The disciple does not have to be inferior to the teacher, the teacher does not have to be better than the disciple, there is a precedence in hearing the Tao, there is a specialization in the arts, that's all.

......

The most important thing in the stock market is to plan and move, and when it comes to the moment of the shot, there is no suspense.

Gu Kun's policy was clear, let Liang Jinsong do it concretely, and on the first day of entering the market, he bought shares worth more than 2 billion Hong Kong dollars.

More than 1.3 billion yuan was spent on the shares of Xiangjiang Telecom, 400 million yuan was bought by Yingke Digital, and the fragmented 7788 telecommunications stocks and network stocks that were in line with Gu Kun's thinking of organizing the market all added up to nearly 1 billion.

At the close of trading, the share price of Heung Kong Telecom had risen by six or seven percentage points compared with before Gu Kun entered the market, and the total market value had risen from HK$24.3 billion to HK$25.7 billion.

Then, Liang Jinsong encountered the first small problem at the operational level, and had to ask Gu Kun first:

"Gu Sheng, do you mind holding up a card? A single shareholder of Hong Kong stocks, or even a person acting in concert, holding more than 5% of the shares, will raise a sign to clearly indicate the identity of the shareholder. Above 15%, you will have to say whether you are ready to privatize the company and give a flat premium.

On the first day of my day, I gave you a steady hand, only 4.9%, if you don't mind, I will continue to buy directly tomorrow, otherwise I will find you a representative. ”

For Liang Jinsong, these little things are very easy. The reason why he asked was also to respect Gu Kun's grand strategy.

After all, Gu Kun has warmed up in public opinion before, and he may argue with Soros at any time. Therefore, it is not necessarily a bad thing to raise a card, sometimes it is a deterrent, and it is to blow the horn of attack to motivate other small scatters and stabilize people's hearts.

Gu Kun laughed when he heard this, this kind of thing has been seen a lot in future generations.

For example, in later generations, some female actors invested in listed film companies, and in order to prevent the shareholding ratio from being too high, they had to raise their cards, and the most common thing was fake divorce, not only divorce themselves, but also let their brothers and sisters-in-law, who are "not acting in concert", also divorce.

Originally, the combined shareholding of brother and sister-in-law was close to 9%, and after a divorce, each person held a few points of 4%, and below the 5% holding line, you could continue to be an invisible rich man without holding a card.

On Wall Street or the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, there are definitely more speculators who will use this kind of trick than dogs on the road.

So Gu Kun instructed familiarly: "I don't mind holding up the card, but it's not now, let's hold it for two days." I'll give you a few accounts for non-concerted actors, and you can help me do that. In addition, we don't have to buy individual stocks directly, but also through those funds that focus on the Internet stock sector, and hold shares indirectly, so that there is no problem of raising cards. ”

Liang Jinsong nodded: "Of course this can be - I wasn't afraid that you would dislike those communication network funds and think that they had a bad eye for stock selection." ”

Gu Kun: "It's true that my vision is not as good as mine, but since we have to protect the market sooner or later, we can't protect it just by buying a few stocks." It would be nice to distinguish between priorities and the proportion of funds used. ”

Liang Jinsong: "Understood, look at me." ”

Tuesday was March 31, and Liang Jinsong continued to operate according to Gu Kun's instructions. Wednesday is April Fool's Day, which is not suitable for announcing some information, so I continued to do it for a day, until Thursday, April 2, when Gu Kun finally decided to raise his card and officially publicly choked Soros.

At the same time, the fake news that "the national team has begun to protect the disk" has also begun to spread among the people.

After the operation from the 31st to the 2nd, Liang Jinsong basically has a capital scale of more than 2 billion Hong Kong dollars every day in several stocks such as Heung Kong Telecom, as well as the corresponding selected funds.

Therefore, when Gu Kun spoke out, he actually had a 19% stake in Heung Kong Telecom (split into the hands of multiple non-concerted actors), worth about 5.5 billion Hong Kong dollars. The total market value of Heung Kong Telecom has also further recovered to more than HK$28 billion.

In addition, Gu Kun also has a 14% stake in Yingke Digital, worth 2 billion, and other miscellaneous communication network stocks totaling 3 billion.

The total amount of funds used is 8 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the current market value of the purchased equity is 10.7 billion, which is more than 20% higher than the average price of Gu Kun's position.

At the same time, because the telecommunications network stock sector rose against the market, the decline of the broader market has somewhat stopped, from the 30th to the 2nd, an average of only a few dozen points in the four trading days, and it took 4 days to fall below the 7,000-point mark from more than 7,200 points.

When the rumors of civil disk protection spread, the final real-time point of the market was 6988 points.

At this moment, Gu Kun published a new round of attacks on Soros on some Western blog sites. Some TV stations also appeared on the candid shooting revelations about Gu Kun's remarks, and analyzed the relevant life and death interests.