Chapter 98: Find an escape route before going to war
On the first day of Gu Kun's entry into the Hong Kong stock market, the market still fell, but Gu Kun did not suffer losses.
Because the stock market is different from the foreign exchange market, you only have one product to speculate on the foreign exchange market, and that is the Hong Kong dollar.
There are thousands of stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, and Soros buys a fixed investment futures index contract, which is the kind of product for the total index of the large market, and does not involve individual stocks.
However, Gu Kun does not need to buy futures contracts to follow the trend, he can choose stocks at the right time in a more flexible way, and support the market on specific stocks, so as to drive the overall Hang Seng Index and compete with Soros.
Therefore, in the initial stage of the war, the situation of "Soros continues to expand his victory, and Gu Kun does not lose" is completely doable, and the losses are only those individual investors who are different from Gu Kun's stock selection.
As soon as the market opened this morning, Gu Kun spent a total of about 2 billion Hong Kong dollars according to his plan, and placed a large amount of buy orders according to the range of individual stocks he selected.
The market continued to fall, but the stocks bought by Gu Kun stood up and rebounded slightly.
"Boss, today's opening price is 7323 points, and now it is 7256 points, and the market is still down 67 points this morning, but it has narrowed by half with last Friday's 215 points all-day decline / 126 points in the morning of a single day.
However, the number of individual stocks we selected is relatively small, and according to the current speed of accumulation, we will absorb the high-liquidity funds of several stocks such as Yingke and Telecom, which are easy to buy in the market, within two days. By the end of the week, we'll have to face a sign. ”
At lunch, Liang Jinsong roughly told Gu Kun about the trading results of the first morning.
Gu Kun didn't say anything, feeling that everything was under control.
Yingke and Telecom (Heung Kong Telecom) mentioned by Liang Jinsong are relatively well-known communication stocks and nascent Internet concept stocks in the Hang Seng Index. It is also the representative of Gu Kun's first wave of selection of individual stocks to support the absorption.
The reason why he chose this way is related to the current market of Hong Kong stocks.
In the process of falling from 12,000 or 3,000 to 7,800 before, the proportion of different sectors on the Hong Kong stock market that was protected by private funds was completely different.
Some blue-chip stocks, especially those with core interests of the chaebols, are better taken care of. After all, the four major chaebols all need to take the company's equity to do pledge financing, and once it falls too badly, it is easy to increase the proportion of pledged equity and blow up.
The main blue-chip stocks of the Xiangjiang chaebol are concentrated in real estate and finance, because this is the most important economic pillar of Xiangjiang.
Of course, in addition to real estate finance, other transportation fields, especially shipping and ship-related industries, are also big blue chips in Hong Kong stocks.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the most serious direct initiative was international trade, so shipping companies struggled and fell too badly. Bao's Tong is desperately trying to buy back to resist shorting, but he is still defeated.
The collapse of real estate stocks was mainly due to the fact that after the return of 97, the land auction treatment of the authorities was much better than that of the Brittany administration, and the annual allowable land supply was four times higher than that of the Breton era, and house prices began to loosen, leading to a decline in people's long-term expectations for real estate.
The own funds of those big families and chaebols, about 10,000 points, began to desperately resist Soros, and they consumed the most ammunition against Soros.
At present, before Gu Kun came, real estate stocks had fallen by 30%, shipping stocks had fallen by half, and financial stocks had fallen relatively little, just falling by a quarter.
Outside of these three major sectors, there are relatively few other blue-chip stocks, which have a relatively low impact on the overall index of the broader market, and they were all stocked before.
Although Soros is not ruthless in attacking these areas, because these plates are not loved by his grandmother and uncle, and no one protects them, they have fallen by more than half on average. (It's not that these stocks are performing poorly, it's purely because no one is protecting them)
After all, Soros came to short the futures contract, and those who opposed Soros did not go for the purpose of being enemies of Soros, they were just trying to protect themselves.
Whether the broad market index falls or not has nothing to do with investors who do not make futures contracts.
This has led to the status quo of "the bearish side is fully bearish, and the bullish side is only focused on bullishness".
When Gu Kun entered the market, he felt that he didn't need to follow the trend of those blue chips that had been protected more thoroughly before, it was better to choose a small batch of stocks that could be supported in the non-blue-chip scrap battlefield, as a springboard to test the waters.
In addition to real estate, finance and shipping, there are not many industries that Xiangjiang can get their hands on now, and Gu Kun chose to choose a number of Internet, telecommunications and media concept stocks.
The reason why he chose this way is obviously to think long-term.
is even already leaving a way back for how to retreat after successfully overturning Soros and protecting the disk in the future.
As we all know, in this disk protection, Soros is short and Gu Kun is long. If Gu Kun finally succeeds in killing Soros, it means that on July 1, Hong Kong stocks will stand in a very high position as a whole, at least 10,000 points.
So, what should I do if Gu Kun and the disk protection team have so much money thrown into it, and no one comes to take over such a high-level position?
This is one of the three major tragic things in the world! Gu Kun definitely wants to avoid it. (The other two tragic urges are that the house is speculated and the landlord is fried, and the pickled girl becomes the husband)
Fortunately, he has the prophet of the reborn, so after considering it all, the safest way to run away is to combine this wave of Hong Kong stocks with the linkage of the future Internet bubble crisis.
The financial crisis in Southeast Asia was mainly from the second half of '97 to the beginning of '98.
Historically, the global Internet boom has actually begun to heat up at the same time - on the other side of the ocean, the rise of the NASDAQ on the secondary stock market began in 96 and has historically risen until March 2000.
However, in a region like Xiangjiang, where finance has fallen into depravity, the response to new technology is relatively slow, and the local Internet concept stocks in early 98 are not very hot, and it is indeed not worth being hot, basically they are all painting cakes and cheating money.
Historically, in March 2000, after the Nasdaq had already begun to fall, Hong Kong stocks were slow to hold on for a few more months, basically holding on to the second half of 2000 before they began to decline.
As for the official bursting of the global Internet bubble, as we all know, it will not collapse until after February 2001, that is, after the election of the president of the Oceanic State, Xiao Buying successfully took over.
After all, the attitude of entrepreneurs in the Internet circle has always been pro-people and anti-nuclear supply, so how can they give face to Clinton, a leader with considerable prestige in the technology industry.
Even if the Internet bubble is going to burst, it must grit its teeth and not collapse during his tenure. Even if it is hung on a ventilator, it will not be officially hiccups until the war maniac for the nuclear file comes to power.
When the global bubble officially collapsed, Xiangjiang did not lag behind, and the Internet concept stocks on the Hong Kong stock market collapsed with the Nasdaq almost within a week.
After clarifying the favorable factors of these prophetic thoughts, Gu Kun's thoughts are also very obvious:
What he hopes is, of course, that after protecting the plate in July, he can go as far as he can.
If you really can't get out, then you will finally take a heavy position in the Internet and telecommunications on the side of Hong Kong stocks, link this wave of market with the Internet bubble in the following year and a half, and get out when the Internet network is at its peak.
In other words, the worst plan is nothing more than being too patriotic and hating Soros, and having to be a medium and long-term shareholder for about a year and a half.
The last walk is definitely going to go.
So, among these Internet stocks, why did Gu Kun specifically choose Yingke Digital and Heung Kong Telecom?
This is because these two stocks are so famous, and many people have analyzed them as a comparison of the Internet bubble in Hong Kong stocks in later generations.
Yingke Digital is the second son of Boss Li, and the second son of Li has made a lot of Internet transformation concepts, claiming to have invested in a bunch of Internet startups, but it is actually not worth any money at all.
(Judging from the results, Yingke's most successful investment should be to invest in Tengyun Technology, which was later Pony.) That investment should have earned thirty or fifty times, an investment of less than one million Hong Kong dollars, and it was worth more than 26 million when it went through the cold winter of the Internet. But later, Tengyun was worth a lot of money, and everyone knew that Li Ergongzi's self-righteous escape in the cold winter was laughed at by the world as a joke for many years)
However, no matter how much dry goods Yingke's actual net worth is, Gu Kun knows that Li Chaebol will hype up the concept of circle money - the market value of this stock reached more than 580 billion Hong Kong dollars in the craziest time in the history of the stock in early 2000.
You must know that the market value of the entire Hong Kong stock market in 98 is only more than 3 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and it is just close to 4 trillion in 00 years of history. A single stock is worth 580 billion in the stock market with a total market value of 4 trillion, which is equivalent to 15% of the entire market.
Even 20 years later, in 2018, when Tengyun's stock price was high before the introduction of the travel restriction order, Tengyun was only worth more than 3 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and at that time, the total market value of the entire Hong Kong stock market was already 30 trillion, and Tengyun's peak was only equivalent to 10% of the entire Hang Seng Index.
This shows how unreasonable the fanaticism of Pacific Century Digital in the first Internet bubble was.
But this unreasonableness also gave Gu Kun the confidence to run away.
He knows that if you really want to siphon out hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars from such a stock that is inflated by hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars in the future, it is absolutely impossible, and it will immediately collapse your confidence and expose your original form.
However, the frenzy plate of 580 billion is still very easy to draw out one or two hundred billion Hong Kong dollars.
This is not a guess, but there is historical evidence to prove - historically, at the end of 99, when the Internet was the craziest, Li Ergongzi took Yingke Digital's shares that only had a fictitious book value and did not have much actual net assets, went to HSBC for a loan, and then promised to use the loan for the acquisition of Heung Kong Telecom, and after the acquisition was completed, the shares of Heung Kong Telecom were also mortgaged to HSBC.
The loan amount requested by Li Ergongzi is 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to 94 billion Hong Kong dollars. But HSBC really agreed-it can be seen that HSBC more or less thinks that even if Yingke Digital is not worth 580 billion in the financial packaging mortgage market, it is still worth about 100 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Even considering the 94 billion Hong Kong dollars empty glove white wolf loan, a considerable part of HSBC's consideration is based on "your father is Li Jiacheng, even if you have an accident, your father will still save you" before daring to give money. Then make a discount and draw out tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars from it, which should not collapse in advance.
Get a few such stocks a little, and Gu Kun won't have to worry about running away in advance in the future.
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