Chapter 120: Easy Run (Part of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis Ends)

After paying off all the leverage, Gu Kun only had $40 billion in chips left in the court, which was finally more than half of his highest position.

After achieving this step, he is no longer afraid of any new international bears reacting, and then shorting the bet to blow up his position.

However, the last $40 billion in chips is also the most difficult to ship, at least within this year.

It is almost inevitable that the sector of network telecommunications media stocks will not be able to go until the peak of the Internet concept bubble in 99. However, this part is still good after a long time, because it will definitely be bigger than the current bubble by then.

Of the 40 billion chips Gu Kun currently has, the cumulative amount of network telecommunications stocks is 14 billion US dollars, and the total of real estate stocks and other miscellaneous items is 260~28 billion.

According to historical development, Heung Kong Telecom's stock alone will be worth $12 billion by this time next year (but Gu Kun did not buy all of Heung Kong Telecom's shares, because the stock was not privatized, and Gu Kun did not want to delist). He is currently only the largest shareholder of the company. )

The peak in the history of Pacific Century Digital can reach 580 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to more than 70 billion US dollars - but Gu Kun did not expect Yingke Digital to be hyped so high in this life.

Because the reason why Yingke Digital's capital operation was so ruthless in the original history was entirely because it was a bubble baked by the Li family. Now Gu Kun has almost bought Yingke Digital in the tradable stock market, and all that is left in the Li family's hands are those non-tradable shares, so the Li family's shareholding ratio is several percent less than that of another time and space.

In this case, Gu Kun is very sober, he knows that Li Ergongzi may still pull Yingke Digital to cash out, but he will definitely not be as desperate as in the original history.

After all, after pulling up, Gu Kun can also drink a few sips of soup, and the Li family works for the Gu family to take money, how can there be such a good thing in the world?

At best, it will only be pulled without cost.

But in any case, Gu Kun estimates that the batch of network telecommunications stocks with a current value of $14 billion in his hand may reach more than $30 billion next year when the market value is inflated, and even if he sells it at least, he can sell it for at least more than 20 billion yuan.

Therefore, as long as this part solves the problem of forced liquidation with leverage, there is no need to worry about it at all.

In the end, the real hard bone is the real estate stocks of 260~28 billion US dollars.

These things are really hard to get started.

Because although they are indeed worth this price at the moment, Gu Kun knows that the real estate in Xiangjiang will be sluggish for at least five years in the future, and the industry in general has no prospects.

Even after five years, real estate is picking up like historical inertia, but because housing prices are too high, the property market in Xiangjiang will never be able to recover liquidity.

In the same way, don't look at the market value of some of the richest real estate companies in Xiangjiang in later generations, which are also relatively empty, relying on the stock of high-priced real estate that cannot be sold to support the book wealth.

Therefore, real estate stocks must run.

Maybe not in the second half of this year, because in the second half of this year, all the hot money in the market was sucked away by Gu Kun's other easy-to-run sectors.

However, in the first half of next year, after the other sectors have been run and the network and telecommunications have not yet started, Gu Kun must take advantage of the time difference of more than half a year to try to sell all the shares of Xiangjiang Real Estate Company.

It doesn't matter what Hutchison Whampoa or Cheung Kong Industrial is, don't do it all.

......

No matter how hard the bones are, they always have to be gnawed, and if the boss can't figure it out, let the entrusted person find a way.

Liang Jinsong also feels that Gu Kun's layout of "starting to accelerate the running of real estate stocks at the end of the year" is also quite big.

Because Liang Jinsong is a native of Xiangjiang after all, he has habitual feelings for many industries in Xiangjiang.

At this juncture in '98, although the price of Hong Kong fell by more than 10% compared with last year, when it was just returned to China, most people did not think that this would be a turning point for the real estate to decline.

On the contrary, financial elites such as Liang Jinsong and real estate tycoons such as Boss Li and Boss Zheng are all fantasizing about a prospect of "small profits but quick turnover".

No way, who let history never have a precedent for this.

"Small profits but quick turnover" is applicable in any other economic field, and sales will definitely go up when prices fall, which is the most basic economic common sense.

As for the example of five or six years ago, I experienced a wave of "after the price plummeted, the trading volume also plummeted". However, the 98-year-old Xiangjiang people never regarded their own experience as a universal law, but thought that it was just a case caused by the "general collapse of the real estate bubble".

However, there is no problem of "bubbles being punctured instantly" in Hong Kong's real estate. Everyone believes that the current decline in housing prices is just a multiple increase in the amount of land that the authorities can sell each year after the handover, and it is normal for "the price to fall due to the increase in supply", which is healthy.

Shouldn't the people hurry up and buy and buy?

In the real estate market in 98 years, except for the crash type, there are indeed few precedents of "don't buy if the house price falls", and everyone can't understand it.

But when did Gu Kun come back? He knows best that "real estate demand has always been a false proposition".

Don't say that buying a house is just needed! Mother-in-law forced to buy a house is just needed! It's all!

At best, it can only be said that "having a house to live in" is a rigid need, but the action of "buying" is definitely not a rigid need!

As long as housing prices look like they will fall, a bunch of people who once swore that they just needed it will instantly choose to rent and not buy.

Anyway, it won't go up, buy a fart!

The consumption attribute of the house only exists in the two links of living and renting. And when it comes to the verb to buy, don't doubt it, it doesn't contain the slightest impulse to spend, it's 100% purely an investment.

Therefore, Gu Kun knows that the property market where "the bubble has not burst, but it has just fallen rationally" will be unpopular.

He is firmer than Liang Jinsong and other Xiangjiang investment tycoons on this point, which is enough to have a great advantage.

This at least made Gu Kun several times more determined than others when he withdrew.

“...... Anyway, no matter what you think, I just want the real estate stocks to run away at this rate! What you can do is not to help me correct my decision, but at most to tell me that if I keep doing this, I will lose a few percent of the market value - that is, your job is to let me cash out my money with as little loss as possible. ”

Regardless of whether Liang Jinsong understood it or not, after Gu Kun explained the above truth in a roundabout way, he directly gave the order like this.

Liang Jinsong could only shrug helplessly: "Okay, since you are willing to bear all the consequences for this decision, I will help you implement it, but you have to be mentally prepared."

According to the simplest algorithm, when you first opened a position in these real estate stocks, it was generally at the point of seven or eight thousand points. And now there are 13,000 left, and we calculate on average, I can turn the 260~28 billion market value of real estate stocks into 150~17 billion US dollars, which is the limit. In other words, in the worst-case scenario, you have to be prepared to lose 11 billion market value and turn the stock back into money!

It is equivalent to that in the field of real estate stocks, you just came in and made a circle for nothing, and made a little hard-earned money. There is no major gain, it is nothing more than a happy revenge and killed Soros. ”

Strictly speaking, even if it is just not making money or making a small profit, but it can ensure that Soros is killed, it is acceptable.

Moreover, Gu Kun doesn't really make money, it's just that the business is broken and crumpled, and some of it doesn't make much money.

He has already made money in terms of shipping finance stocks and technology stocks in Hong Kong, or is very sure that he is about to make money. The real estate stocks are used as a post-break to block the pursuers, and let the comrades run first when they run.

Even if it is the god of war, you can't ask every part of the army to have a higher battle damage exchange ratio than the enemy. The sacrifice of the troops after the retreat was also for the overall situation.

It's just that Liang Jinsong has always regarded himself as the "president of Xiangjiang first-class fund", so he is a little more demanding, and he feels that it is a bit embarrassing to just play like this.

The two sides have discussed a lot of drafts in detail, but there are no good ideas, and they always feel that it is inevitable to withdraw and reduce the market value of tens of billions.

In the end, Liang Jinsong, who was really anxious, had a flash of inspiration, gritted his teeth and stomped his feet: "If it really doesn't work, we can only 'warriors kill the evil dragon, and then grow scales themselves', it's a big deal, after we kill Soros, we will learn from Soros." ”

Gu Kun raised his eyebrows: "What do you mean?" ”

Liang Jinsong sneered and shrugged at you: "What else can it mean?" For example, when we plan to withdraw funds in the first half of next year, we will find a way to induce a wave of foreign exchange stock linkage, find incentives to induce banks to cut interest rates, bond interest rates, and introduce more hot money from outside the circle into the stock market, and then we will run. ”

Strictly speaking, Liang Jinsong's reverse thinking is still different from Soros.

Because Soros is inducing interest rate hikes to drive down the stock price, and then go short.

Liang Jinsong's plan is to induce interest rate cuts to raise the stock price, and then run away to cash out while others are long.

And he's obviously more divergent, not necessarily the banks cut interest rates, but also bonds.

In short, it is just "to find a way to reduce the attractiveness of other categories in the local financial market in Hong Kong, and to appear to be highly attractive to the stock market in disguise".

Very common thinking.

Gu Kun thought for a while and commented: "We need to link more markets and attract hot money into the stock market...... The idea is very decent, but it's a bit embarrassing for us to kill Soros and then learn from Soros. If the same trick comes again, there are too many hatreds, and the good reputation I have built up over the years has been ruined, and the effect is easy to be vigilant and wary of......

I think it's better to be like this, since you think of the linkage of foreign exchange stocks and bonds, we might as well directly engage in the linkage of real estate stocks - housing prices continue to fall, and the decline has become larger, this expectation is held by very few people in the Xiangjiang investment community, and now almost only I hold it. Then we will carry it out to the end, and when the time comes, we will create some panic about the housing price bubble and attract the funds for housing speculation to the stock market.

If Boss Li doesn't want the real estate market to panic and the real estate stocks to panic, let them make more money for their own equity pledge financing. ”

The linkage of real estate stocks is an old trick that is common in the mainland of China in later generations. Every time the news of stagflation in housing prices comes, the money that can't be idle and restless will pour into the stock market, and then the stock will usher in a wave of general rise.

This can be regarded as a kind of financial linkage with Chinese characteristics in the future, and even the house can be linked with bonds and foreign exchange stocks to become a pure financial product.

Liang Jinsong was a little confused: "Singing about real estate to sing more about real estate stocks? You're not kidding......, are you?" It seems like it's a real possibility. Alas, we Chinese like to save money too much, there is no way, money is not idle. This hand made me ponder, maybe when it comes time to run away, I can really cut billions of dollars less meat. ”