After Emma left, Chen Dahe looked at Luca and said with a smile, "Luca, after the establishment of the investment fund, it will definitely not be satisfied with the status quo, it is inevitable to develop new investment projects, of course, I will not doubt the prospects of the projects you are operating now, so you can continue to keep them, I want to ask, what do you think of the current economic situation in the United States?"

Could it be that the boss's next target is still the United States, so what is it?

When Lukka heard the question, he immediately opened his mind and quickly recalled the homework he had done, and after a while, he looked up and said, " Sir, for the U.S. economy, I think it can be divided into two stages, the first is of course the economic recovery that originated from the Star Wars program, and the rise of the high-tech industry led by the computer industry, based on this, the United States and even the entire Western economy will inevitably enter a medium and long-term period of sustained growth, reflected in the stock market, there is an 80 percent probability that the stock market will continue to soar, but this is only the first half, if the United States can not solve the problems brought about by the overheating of the economy, it is very likely that when this prosperity ends, it will detonate a global disaster。 ”

Chen Dahe gradually put away the smile on his face, but did not speak, but gently raised his hand and motioned for Lukka to continue.

"According to my analysis, there are two aspects of the problem in the United States," Luca said, waving his hands and a serious face. After World War II, the United States' economic strength grew unprecedentedly, becoming the world's largest creditor country, but the rise in strength, and the establishment of an international monetary system based on the dollar, made the United States' self-confidence extremely inflated, followed by the high investment that lasted for nearly 40 years, and finally not only spent all the money accumulated during the Roosevelt period, but also borrowed from allies to support domestic economic development, and out of trust in the economic strength of the United States, European countries were also willing to lend money to the United States, but they did not know that it was this decision that made them unconsciously kidnap the economic chariot of the United States。

Although the rise of Star Wars and the information industry has laid the foundation for their rapid economic development, these two have also consumed a large amount of their financial expenditures, and once the US economy turns from prosperity to decline, the US Government, which is mired in deficits and cannot extricate itself, will certainly be unable to cope with it, and the European countries will certainly bury them! What is even more regrettable is that so far, I have not seen the United States make any effort to deal with their fiscal deficits!

Second, the long-standing strong dollar exchange rate in the foreign exchange market is hindering the export of this country's products; on the contrary, due to the strong purchasing power of the dollar, a large number of high-quality and low-cost foreign goods are hitting the manufacturing industry in the United States.

Chen Dahe held the side face with one hand, squinted his eyes and lowered his head in contemplation, and after a moment looked up at Luca, "Is this your personal analysis, or the result of UBS?"

This question seems to have nothing to do with investment, but it is actually very important, if it is just Luca's personal thinking, it is a great thing for him, because the right idea of Luca can lead this complex long-term investment project, but if it is the result of UBS's analysis, then when making the layout, it is impossible not to consider whether it will collide with UBS, and he will also lose a lot of income.

"My personal analysis," Luca shrugged helplessly, " Not only that, my report was also dismissed as nonsense by a number of economists at the UBS Institute of Economics, although some people have come to a similar point of view to me, but after all, it is a small part, and can not have an impact on mainstream thought, in their view, the implementation of the Star Wars program and the rise of the information industry, although the early stage requires financial investment from the United States, but this is only a normal investment, when the income is generated, it will certainly bring a huge amount of fiscal revenue to the United States, and what is the additional fiscal deficit at that time, although they have also noticed, but the vast majority of people believe that the US government has the ability to solve the problem of sluggish domestic manufacturing。 ”

"What about your thoughts?" Chen Dahe pursed his lips and looked at him and asked, "Do you stick to your own speculations, or do you agree with some of their ideas?"

"Probably both," Luca said with a wry smile, "and if the status quo is maintained, I still firm my own reasoning, if the United States can come up with a new fiscal plan, maybe both of these problems can be effectively solved, then the so-called second phase will naturally not exist." ”

"I have an idea," Chen Dahe suddenly laughed, "the second problem you mentioned, the U.S. government will definitely be able to solve it, but the first one, what if they haven't thought about solving it at all?"

"Didn't think about solving it?" Lukka blinked suspiciously, "What do you mean?"

"You just said that it was the European countries that were kidnapped by the United States," Chen Dahe opened his hands and smiled meaningfully on his face, "Remember, it was not the European countries that kidnapped the United States, so once the crisis broke out, the United States could still pull a few cushions to share the pressure, in that case, why should they solve this little trouble?!"

As soon as he heard this, Luca immediately frowned and fell into thought, and after a while, he couldn't help but gasp, with Lao Mei's urine, it seems that the possibility of this situation is very high, someone is refueling on the highway, and someone has an accident and someone backs him, how can they give up this kind of good thing for no reason? !

Immediately afterward, he began to speculate on this possible development trend, and soon, he raised his head sharply and stretched out a slap to Chen Dahe.

"Five years!" Luca's face was full of heaviness, "I speculate that in less than five years, there will be a very serious financial crisis in the United States, and this crisis will sweep through the major economies of the Western camp, and as for whether it will evolve into a global economic crisis like the one of the thirties, I need more information to calculate in detail." ”

Chen Dahe raised his eyebrows slightly, and couldn't help but be surprised, surprised that Luca's speculation was very close to the real development results, which showed that his ability far exceeded his current position in UBS, and he was happy that such a powerful economic master had been pocketed by himself, as long as he didn't make a brain break and forced him away, he would become his most powerful assistant in the financial field.

"Luca," Chen Dahe chuckled, "I agree with your speculation, so let's predict what kind of way the United States will use to solve the problem of weak domestic manufacturing and uncompetitive product exports?"

"Of course it's the depreciation of the dollar!" Lukka blurted out, and then his eyes lit up, "I understand! In addition to the US dollar, the most important currencies in the world today are the British pound, the French franc and the Federal German mark, if the dollar wants to depreciate, it will only be for the purpose of orderly depreciation of these currencies, we can make a layout in these three countries in advance, so that we can make a lot of money in the foreign exchange market!"

"That's right," Chen Dahe nodded with a smile, then shook his head, "In addition to these three, you forgot one." ”

"And another?" Lukka looked at him suspiciously, and immediately reacted, "By the way, there is also Japan! At present, Japanese manufacturing is flooding the world, and even the European automobile field has been invaded by them, if the dollar wants to depreciate in an orderly manner, it is impossible not to pull Japan!"

"So, this is our chance!" Chen Dahe said with a smile, "Luca, just follow your idea and come up with a detailed action plan, I hope to start the first battle after the establishment of this fund after Christmas!"

"No problem, this is me forcibly!" Luca also seemed very excited at this time, first invest in the United States, and then snipe the United States, few people in the financial world dare to do this, and he is about to do this, this is his best chance to become famous, there is absolutely no room for mistakes!