Chapter 644: Black Swan

"Lao Yu, how far do you think the stock price of microelectronics can go?"

Hu Yang was reading the reports of Liu Qiang and Lin Yan, and Yu Hongbo knocked on the door and came in to report the rebound in the stock price of microelectronic equipment, so he raised his head and asked.

Yu Hongbo thought for a while and said:

"Boss, the fundamentals of microelectronic devices are not easy to judge. If they can't conquer the exposure optical system, then the production of high-end lithography machines in the future will basically stagnate.

Judging from the market's reaction this time, investors have recognized their stockpiling of inventory, but in the end, it will depend on whether they can make a technological breakthrough as soon as possible.

Therefore, I think that this wave of rebound, the stock price of microelectronic equipment will not go far, it is unlikely to break through the price of 100 yuan, and it is very likely to maintain the box movement of 80 yuan to 100 yuan. ”

From a professional point of view, it is not easy for Yu Hongbo to analyze so much.

Hu Yang nodded with a smile and said:

"Lao Yu, I believe what you said, the rebound in the stock price of microelectronic devices has no substantial support. However, next, microelectronic devices can't maintain the box movement you said, and there will be a ** fall. ”

"Plummeting?so fast?"

What Hu Yang said made Yu Hongbo very confused, but Hu Yang didn't mean to continue to explain, so he immediately turned around and left the room.

At night.

Meng Rusong and Zhang Xiao came to the old house of Hu Yang.

A few people made a few dishes at home, opened a bottle of Moutai, and chatted while drinking.

"Mr. Hu, the road to the listing of microelectronic devices may be wrong. ”

Meng Rusong heard some unconfirmed rumors from North America, which made him a little worried.

Hu Yang was not very much in favor of the listing of microelectronic devices before, but since several other parties had this idea, he also voted in favor of it.

In his opinion, the problem of microelectronic devices being listed in China is not a big problem, and I don't know what Meng Rusong means by this sentence?

Zhang Xiao saw Hu Yang's doubts, so he explained:

"Mr. Meng and I both heard a rumor that the North American side would refuse to export any relevant parts to the company on the grounds that the high-end lithography machine of microelectronic equipment has military use.

If this is the case, then the stock price of microelectronics will collapse, with even greater negative effects. ”

The working principle of high-end lithography machines is complex, involving thousands of components.

For example, lasers, beam correctors, energy controllers, light shields, energy detectors, masks, mask tables, objective lenses, measuring tables, exposure stages, ...... Wait a minute.

In addition to purchasing exposure optical systems from Bolong Optics, microelectronic equipment also has many parts that need to be imported.

It is inevitable that some of the parts are produced in North America, or some parts are based on North American technology.

When Hu Yang heard this, he couldn't help but be stunned, but he didn't get any news before.

"Mr. Zhang, is there a way to replace the parts supplied by North America in China? Or it can be imported from Japan and Germany. ”

Hu Yang was also a little nervous, he wanted to buy microelectronic equipment, but he didn't want to watch the other party collapse.

Besides, in the future, the high-end lithography machine of Bolong Optics will be mass-produced, will it also face such a situation?

Originally, Hu Yang felt that the stock price of microelectronic devices would fall sharply, based on his judgment of the market.

After falling below 4,000 points, the broader market has had a relatively strong rebound. The optimists of the market believe that the market will soon break through the previous high, heading for 8,000 or even 10,000 points.

However, Hu Yang clearly realized that all optimistic judgments are just good wishes. He himself believes that there will be a plummeting process in the broader market next, and it is obvious that it will fall below 2,000 points, and it is not even surprising to fall below 1,000 points.

The market crash, especially when it comes to the last stage of panic, is simply mud and sand, and no one is immune.

Neither can microelectronics.

Therefore, Populus euphratica repeatedly told herself to be patient. When the time comes, let alone the price of 50 yuan per share, maybe the stock price of microelectronic equipment will fall below 20 yuan.

Unexpectedly, before the market plummeted, another black swan took off again.

"Mr. Hu, it is difficult to achieve 100% localization of thousands of parts and components of high-end lithography machines. Although the company has also proposed a spare tire plan before, you also know that the problems that we need to focus on in recent years are still whether there are problems.

As for importing parts from Japan and Germany, it is an option. It's just that it's hard to keep the supply chain safe, and who knows if North America will put pressure on them?"

Zhang Xiao had previously been the chairman of Microelectronics, and the threat of this rumor made him feel restless.

If North America really does this, it will not only be a disaster for microelectronic devices, but also a disaster for Bolong Optics. The other party is now beginning to suppress microelectronic equipment, and will not let go of Bolong Optics in the future.

However, fortunately, Bolong Optics has not yet entered the field of the whole machine, and will not be taken care of for the time being.

"Mr. Hu, Mr. Zhang, whether it is reliable or not, we must be ready to import parts from Japan and Germany for substitution.

In addition, we are also major shareholders of microelectronic equipment, and we must quickly remind them to reserve a batch of key components. ”

When Meng Rusong said this, he felt funny and sad.

Microelectronic Equipment has just signed a temporary purchase agreement with Bolong Optics to purchase more than 100000000000 yuan of exposure optical systems from the company as a reserve for one year's output.

Now we have to purchase key components from North America or around the world for bulk stockpiling.

It's like being caught in a cycle from which companies will eventually die if they can't secure their supply chains.

But microelectronics can't really be blamed for this result, and no company has complete control over the supply chain of thousands of components.

Neither can ASML, and its production also requires sourcing raw materials and components from all over the world.

Hu Yang was also helpless, shook his head and said: "I'll tell Mr. Li when I go back, I think he can see this crisis." ”

The reserve of key components can meet the production volume of up to one year. And what about a year from now? It's a headache to think about.

"Mr. Zhang, Bolong Optics has to pay attention to this issue now. Don't wait for us to officially start mass production, and get stuck in the neck again. ”

Hu Yang intends to let people implement the news as soon as possible, but whether this news is true or not, Bolong Optics must be vigilant.

The three of them sat until more than 11 o'clock in the evening, when Zhang Xiao and Meng Rusong said goodbye and left.

Following.

Hu Yang came to the office in the morning, and before he could call Li Qi, Yu Hongbo hurriedly walked in.

"Boss, microelectronic devices fell as soon as they opened today. There are many rumors in the market, and there are all kinds of things to say, but they mainly involve the company's raw materials and key components may be out of stock. ”

Hu Yang had just said that microelectronic devices might plummet, but today there will be a fall limit, Yu Hongbo looked at Hu Yang's eyes full of admiration.

"Ahem, I said before that the stock of microelectronics would fall sharply, but I didn't mean these things. Don't you see? The market hasn't been doing well lately.

There is a saying that there is no reason for nothing, let me put it this way, about the suppression of microelectronic devices in North America, it is very likely to be true. ”

Hu Yang couldn't predict this sudden bad news, and he also knew what Yu Hongbo was thinking in his heart, this matter was wrong, and the time happened to coincide.

Yu Hongbo felt that this was the boss's excuse, and he must have foreseen the crisis of microelectronic equipment.

Otherwise, how could a person with such a strong boss watch Peak Capital put its hand into microelectronic devices?

He heard that the boss was also very restrained in front of Director You. The other party wanted to decouple from Bolong Optics, and the boss agreed without saying a word. Looking back now, maybe it was to avoid the risk this time.

Therefore, within the Huijia system, there are many people who mythologize Populus euphratica. This is mainly due to his past record being too dazzling, and everyone thinks that he should be able to do anything.

Hu Yang didn't know what Yu Hongbo's heart was thinking now, but it was obvious that the other party didn't believe what he said.

"Lao Yu, you have been focusing on the point recently, if there is a suitable opportunity, you can consider buying a part of the shares of microelectronic equipment in the name of Bolong Optics. ”

Hu Yang didn't bother to explain again, gave Yu Hongbo an explanation, and waved him away.

It didn't take long for Wu Xinhui to knock on the door and come in, and said, "Dong Li of microelectronic equipment is here, just downstairs, does Mr. Hu have time to see him?"

Hu Yang originally planned to call Li Qi, but he didn't expect the other party to come directly to the door.

"Assistant Wu, you go pick up Dong Li, and then take him directly to the reception room. ”

Don't even ask, Li Qi must be for those rumors.

But Hu Yang didn't have a good way to help him for the time being, at most, he was advised to stock up on more raw materials and parts.

Ten minutes later, Hu Yang met Li Qi in the reception room.

"Mr. Hu, microelectronic equipment has encountered a big crisis. I hope you can help me get the company through this. ”

Li Qi was really polite, and asked Hu Yang for help as soon as they met.

Hu Yang smiled and waved his hand, and said:

"Chairman Li, it's not that I don't want to help, the two major shareholders of the company are standing there, what's the matter with you coming to me?

Besides, even if I am willing to help you for the sake of your Li Dong's face, the question is what can I help you?"

"Look, I'm a little dizzy, and I'm talking all sorts of babble. Mr. Hu, didn't I just sign a temporary purchase agreement with Bolong Optics?

I have already paid 30% of the advance payment, can the rest of the payment be slowed down a little? Rest assured, I will pay it off within six months.

I am doing this in order to reserve a batch of raw materials and parts, and at least one year's production inventory is required, please understand. ”

Don't look at the company's just received a raised fund, in fact, the cash flow of microelectronic equipment is not very good. Before repaying the debt of 5 billion yuan to Gaoke Chuangtou, it still needs to repay 5 billion yuan to the other party three months later.

Li Qi received the news that North America was preparing to cut off supply, and immediately decided to stock up on some raw materials and parts. With a one-year time buffer, it was possible for him to find a glimmer of life.

Hu Yang had discussed with Zhang Xiao and others before, and planned to complete the temporary purchase agreement for microelectronic equipment in three months.

But since the other party's funds are currently relatively tight, it does not matter if the delivery period is extended to six months.

"Dong Li, go back and discuss with Mr. Xu and Mr. Zhang of Bolong Optics, and I'll say hello to you. ”

After six months of delivery, the microelectronic equipment still has to be paid off, which is not negotiable.

As for the 5 billion yuan debt of high-tech venture capital, neither of them mentioned it.

Director You and Peak Capital are almost equivalent to turning their faces with Hu Yang, and after Zhang Xiao left the microelectronic equipment, he threw himself into the arms of Bolong Optics...... The contradictions between the two sides have long been made public.

Populus euphratica is not a virgin, he cannot unconditionally help microelectronics.

"Mr. Hu, thank you so much! Hey, I can't say some things, but no matter what, I personally appreciate your affection. ”

Li Qi left without even drinking a cup of tea, he knew very well in his heart that microelectronic equipment had encountered a test of life and death.

Of course, he is definitely not the only one who is anxious, Yang Hu and Wu Zunyou of Summit Capital are even more anxious than him.

Recently, the two have negotiated a bank and are ready to take out a loan first, and use the equity of the microelectronic equipment they hold as collateral.

Yang Hu wanted a loan of 7 billion yuan, but the other party only promised to give 6 billion yuan.

The two sides argued for a few days, and the result was that the bad news came. If the stock price of microelectronic equipment continues to fall, let alone 7 billion yuan, the bank may not even lend them 1 billion yuan.

"Mr. Yang, blame me for this incident, blame me for being too greedy. If we hadn't been blinded by the subsidy of 100 billion yuan, we wouldn't have come to this point. ”

After thinking about it, Wu Zunyou felt that there was no chance at all.

The shares held by Summit Capital are far from past the lock-up period, and it is impossible to sell them in the market. Now the bank has also changed its mind and does not agree to the equity-pledged loan.

As a result, the 10 billion yuan invested in microelectronic equipment will really be wasted.

"Mr. Wu, how can I blame you for this? I can only blame our bad luck. I'll go to Director You immediately, anyway, Modu State-owned Assets is also the largest shareholder, I hope they can have a way to deal with it. ”

In the face of the suppression in North America, Yang Hu had no temper at all, and he hoped that Director You would have a way.

Wu Zunyou didn't squeak, he was not optimistic about Director You, but he still had some hope for the new chairman Li Qi.

But he won't stop Yang Hu, and it doesn't hurt to give it a try.

As a result, Yang Hu hurriedly came to Director You's office, but he was empty. The staff told him that Director You had gone to the city for a meeting.

"Meeting, what meeting? There is still energy for a meeting at this time, huh!"

Yang Hu was in a bad mood and couldn't help but complain. But he didn't want to think about it, he didn't make a phone call before he came, so he couldn't blame others.

"Mr. Yang, Director You said that he will definitely come back before noon. Why don't you go and do something else first, and come back when it's almost time to get off work?"

The staff didn't dare to offend Yang Hu, and had to deal with him with a smile.

"Take me to the reception room, I'll wait for him here. ”

Yang Hu suppressed the anger in his heart and followed the staff to the reception room.