Chapter 118: Rescue the City

Economic data for the two months after the 2008 Olympics came out, and the growth rate fell to about 6 percent, compared with the 10 percent growth rate in the previous eight months.

A 4% drop in GDP means that at least 5 million people have lost their jobs, and China's economic situation is deteriorating at a rate that is visible to the naked eye. It is important to know that at least 10 million new jobs are created in China every year, and in order to ensure their full employment, the GDP growth rate must be maintained at about 7.2% according to authoritative estimates.

If the situation is allowed to deteriorate and a large number of people lose their jobs and affect social stability, then 2009 will be the Waterloo of China's economy, and it is very likely that it will fall into the "middle-income trap", and the road to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation will be impossible.

After the United States announced a rescue plan of up to 850 billion US dollars, developed countries in Europe and the United States have also announced their own rescue plans, and the Chinese government must also do something!

In the next three years, by 2010, the state intends to directly fund 1 trillion yuan from the central government, and then drive 3 trillion yuan of diversified investment from local, enterprise and financial institutions, so as to inject rescue funds into the domestic economy and implement a package of rescue plans.

Judging from the announced flow of funds, it is mainly invested in infrastructure construction, such as high-speed rail, 3G telecommunication networks, rural three-link construction and shantytown renovation and other livelihood projects.

From 1998 to 2008, the positive effects of Roosevelt's New Deal will once again be used as a reference in China, driving economic growth through large-scale government investment. After all, exports are sluggish and domestic demand is sluggish, and in the end, government investment, which has the fastest effect among the troika, has become the first choice to bail out the market.

China's stock market rose sharply immediately after the announcement, showing optimism about the future.

However, how to subdivide 4 trillion yuan, of which 350 billion is claimed to be used in independent innovation and economic upgrading of structural adjustment, but how to distribute all walks of life is still unknown.

Judging from the most intuitive reaction of the stock market, the stocks of state-owned enterprises in infrastructure fields such as railways, telecommunications, ports, and airports rose sharply, while the stocks of other related private enterprises were not shocked. The stocks of Zhonghua Group are a good representative, but they still lag behind the state-owned enterprises.

At this time, the acquisition of Volvo, which was entering the core negotiation stage, was temporarily suspended for 14 days at the request of Ford.

The reason given by the other party is that the U.S. government has reached out to Ford Motor Co., Ltd., and a targeted relief plan for the auto industry may be introduced soon. Due to the changing environment, Ford Motor Company needs to further evaluate the Group's growth strategy.

After successfully rescuing the banking, insurance, and real estate businesses, financial markets began to stabilize. The U.S. government has set its sights on the next area in dire need of relief – the auto industry.

The three major U.S. auto groups, together with their upstream and downstream industry chains, including spare parts, logistics, dealers, and related financial businesses, directly and indirectly employ more than 1.5 million people. Behind them are 1.5 million American households, and if the auto industry is left unchecked, more than $100 billion in assets could become bad debts, and the stock market will once again have a trampling effect, and the fragile US economy cannot afford such consequences. In addition, as a major manufacturing country, the automobile is a pillar industry, and from the perspective of the US economic security, it will never give up this position.

A $20 billion auto bailout loan is ready, and the big three auto companies can apply to the government, but at the same time they will have to accept harsh regulatory conditions and come up with a credible reform and rebirth plan. For example, the government has entered the enterprise according to the bailout funds to become a major shareholder and enjoy the rights and interests of preferred shares, and at the same time requires the company to significantly reduce costs to be comparable to Japanese and Korean enterprises, and even reborn in a slimming model that does not rule out bankruptcy and reorganization.

This news is not a good thing for Han Hao, because it was because of Ford's business difficulties that Ford decided to sell Volvo at the last moment. If they had accepted the U.S. government bailout loan, they would have gotten through this difficult time, and selling their assets would have been less urgent.

Compared with Jaguar Land Rover, Zhonghua Group needs Volvo as a high-quality asset more.

Internally, Ford began urgently evaluating the pros and cons of accepting a bailout loan from the U.S. government, which would have been enough for the company to survive the subprime mortgage crisis. The disadvantage is that the Ford family, the majority shareholder, will be subject to the supervision of the U.S. government in the future, and Ford may face the end of de-familyization.

After calculating the funds in the account, Bill Ford, on behalf of the major shareholders, decided not to accept the relief of the US government for the time being, insisting on getting out of the quagmire independently, and Ford is still the property of the Ford family.

On the other hand, the other two giants, General Motors and Chrysler, both accepted the supervision of the U.S. government, and obtained the first tranche of loans of up to 9.4 billion and 4 billion US dollars respectively, handing over control of the company to temporarily avoid bankruptcy.

As soon as the news came out that Ford announced that it would not accept government loans for the time being, Han Hao knew that Volvo was stable because they had to continue to sell assets to get cash.

Expected to bring a $1.5 billion loss to Volvo in 2008, Ford immediately resumed negotiations with the Chinese and accelerated the progress, just to make this hot potato as soon as possible. Concessions have been made to Jaguar's resale to Tata Motors and the joint development of turbocharging technology for next-generation V6 engines.

This gave Han Hao another opportunity to lower the price, and the price of 2.8 billion fell to 2.2 billion US dollars, and Volvo seemed to be going to "marry" to China like Jaguar Land Rover.

After the U.S. government bailed out the market, EU countries couldn't help it, they must also enhance the competitiveness of their cars, and also announced a rescue plan of up to 40 billion euros, mainly led by France and Germany, the two major automobile powers.

It can be seen that the automobile industry plays an important strategic role in the economies of various countries.

Turning back to China, the sales of Chinese auto companies have declined, and except for one of the Zhonghua Group, which is expected to complete the sales set at the beginning of the year, other car companies have not been able to meet the set targets. At the beginning of the year, Han Hao made a conservative estimate due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, and set this year's target at only 5% growth over last year.

In the first half of the year, everyone also agreed that in 2008, China's automobile market is expected to sell more than 10 million vehicles due to the Olympic Games.

Fortunately, the joint venture brand has achieved 80% of the target so far, and the top three Japanese brands have reached 85%, which is within the acceptable range. On the contrary, the results of domestic independent brands cannot be put on the table, such as Great Wall and Brilliance, with a completion rate of more than 40%, and Chery and Haima are better at about 50%.

In the past two months, China's auto industry has fallen into an industry-wide loss situation, and the market has disappeared all of a sudden, and no consumers have walked into 4S stores to buy new cars.

The auto industry, one of the pillars of China's economy, is a major reason for the country's GDP plummet, and the voices calling for the state to bail out the auto industry have also begun to increase.

The 4 trillion yuan of the bailout was all invested in major projects in the fields of infrastructure and people's livelihood, but there was no specific economic aspect.

The ten key industries of iron and steel, automobiles, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, electronic information, and logistics have become the objects of support for the state to cope with the financial crisis and maintain growth, expand domestic demand, and adjust the structure.

It is very surprising that real estate, which is the leading real driver of the domestic economy, is not included in it, showing the sensitivity of this field.

In any case, the automobile is included in the national bailout industry anyway, and the specific measures are as follows:

First, in 2009, the purchase tax halving policy was implemented for vehicles with a displacement of 1.6L and below, which is expected to release consumers' willingness to buy cars on a large scale.

The second is to arrange a financial arrangement of 5 billion yuan to provide a one-time financial subsidy for the replacement of rural scrapped three-wheeled and agricultural vehicles with mini cars below 1.3L.

The third is to arrange 10 billion special funds to focus on supporting enterprise technological innovation and the development of new energy vehicles and parts.

Fourth, the implementation of the new energy vehicle strategy, the state subsidy funds for new cars, to support the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles in large and medium-sized cities.

Fifth, encourage the restructuring of automobile enterprises, support the merger and integration of resources of large automobile groups, and vigorously develop independent automobile brands and improve consumer credit services.

Zhonghua Group has complied with all of the five consecutive rescue policies for the automotive industry, and some people even say that it is tailor-made for it.

The halving of the purchase tax for small displacements below 1.6L is in line with the product line positioning of Zhonghua Group, especially the successful development of the newly announced 1.6T turbo engine, which has benefited most of the company's product lines. In the 1.3L mini car market, Huaxia brand cars occupy a monopoly position in this field, and the state supports farmers to change cars, which will of course greatly increase the sales of Huaxia automobiles. As for the field of new energy, Zhonghua Group is the leader in the world, and the state has come up with special funds to support research and development, and it is absolutely good to subsidize new energy vehicles. As for encouraging the development of independent brands and industry restructuring, Zhonghua Group is expected to receive government procurement support and continue to consolidate its position as the No. 1 domestic market share.

As soon as the news of the auto bailout was announced, all the stocks of Zhonghua Group rose to the limit, and the funds of real money knew where to flow to be profitable.

Compared with most people's predictions, it is not surprising that the purchase tax is halved, subsidized car purchases and restructuring is encouraged, and only new energy vehicles have become a national strategy that has surprised everyone.

The reason why the country includes new energy vehicles in the national development strategy is because we have seen the excellent achievements of Zhonghua Group in this field. After the test of the Olympic Games, it has proved that new energy vehicles can shoulder the heavy responsibility of travel, and it has become possible to replace internal combustion engine products.

In the field of internal combustion engines, China's automobile industry is on the road to catching up, but it has achieved a leading position in the field of new energy vehicles, which makes the country's top management see the successful opportunity of overtaking in the automotive industry.

Since Zhonghua Group can, then other independent enterprises should also be able to do it, relying on policy support and guidance, there will be no doubt that China's power in the field of new energy vehicles will rise in the future.

It can be said that Zhonghua Group is the biggest winner of the auto bailout, and the advance layout will maintain this advantage until the next five years.

Originally, Zhonghua Group's funds were still a little tight, but as soon as the bailout policy was announced, banks came to the door to chase after the enterprise loans, and dared to approve loans of hundreds of millions of yuan as long as there was a planning plan without collateral. For example, the ongoing merger and acquisition of Volvo project easily received more than 10 billion yuan of loan support, and under the national 4 trillion plan, the Bank of China began the era of flooding.

According to the professional analysis report given by the China Think Tank, the country claims to invest 4 trillion yuan in bailout funds in the next three years, but the actual scale may be as high as 30 trillion yuan.

Because it is like Zhonghua Group obtained a bank loan of 10 billion, this amount is a one-time payment. However, it is impossible for the Zhonghua Group to spend 10 billion at one time, it may only need 2.5 billion to use, and the remaining 7.5 billion will be deposited in the bank, so the loan becomes a deposit. And the bank can reuse the 7.5 billion yuan for loans, and the deposits become loans again.

If this cycle is repeated, 4 trillion real money will be put into the market, and the scale of funds can reach 30 trillion under real operation.

Carelessly, China's economy has ushered in another turning point.