Fudan MBA class.

In this class, "Entrepreneurship is the core competitiveness of listed companies", Lin Zhuoyun held a copy of "Manuscripts of the History of New Chinese Literature" and sat in the back row with a smile on her face - she was waiting to go to the movies with Song Weiyang.

Song Weiyang looked at his watch, threw away the chalk, sat on the podium and said, "There are still two classes left in this semester, and I will no longer teach you next semester." I have compiled the lecture notes for "Entrepreneurship" and published it by Fudan University Press, and both Fudan and Tongji have decided to use it as the textbook for MBA courses. In other words, 'entrepreneurship' will be taught later, but not by me, but by other professors. There are still ten minutes to get out of class, so let's talk about something, and students who have questions can also ask questions. ”

A student suddenly raised his hand: "Teacher, a financial magazine said that you earned more than 90 million yuan in the stock market last year, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange called you the 'God of Stocks'." Is this true?"

Song Weiyang said with a smile: "How can there be 90 million, after deducting taxes and fees, it is less than 80 million." ”

As soon as these words came out, the classroom suddenly exclaimed.

It's one thing to have rumors, it's another thing to confirm the parties. The average age of these students is about 30 years old, and they have all seen a lot of the world, but they still can't imagine making 80 million yuan by trading stocks.

Another student said, "Teacher, you teach us how to trade stocks." ”

Song Weiyang said: "I don't need to teach, I can't teach, and I'm not a finance teacher. ”

"And what's your trick to making money trading stocks?" the students asked.

Song Weiyang said with a smile: "In last year's market, individuals can make money by speculating in stocks, as long as they don't be too greedy." ”

Another student asked, "Then what information did you use to leave the venue in time?"

Song Weiyang said: "Information is everywhere, and in October last year, the securities regulatory department awarded 12 gold medals in a row to cool down the stock market. Anyone can see these news, and those who are not stupid should stop it, and then they were trapped because of greed. I didn't leave the market at the highest point, the stock I bought went up several dollars later. ”

A student said: "Now that the financial magazine reports on Soros's battle against the Thai baht every day, what does Mr. Song think?"

"You came to Fudan to study MBA, why are you so interested in finance and securities?" said Song Weiyang.

"Business administration is also inseparable from capital operation. One student said.

Song Weiyang put away his smile and asked rhetorically: "Do you know why international speculators led by Soros are eyeing Thailand?"

One student replied, "Thailand is a small country, small in size, and easy to operate. ”

Song Weiyang said: "Singapore is smaller, why doesn't Soros go to trouble Singapore?"

"Well......" the student couldn't answer.

"It is no accident that Soros is eyeing Thailand over other Asian countries," Song explained, "We often say that the Asian Tigers are developing rapidly, and Thailand, as one of the Asian Tigers, is also breathtaking." In the decade from the 70s to the 80s, Thailand's GDP grew at an annual rate of 10%. But at that time, Thailand's foreign exchange management system was relatively strict, and there was no opportunity for international speculators to make a move. The reason why Soros is now staring at Thailand and tracing back to the root is because China wants to take back the port city in 97. ”

The students looked at each other, and even Lin Zhuoyun was surprised, wondering what Soros's attack on the Thai baht had to do with the return of the port city.

Song continued: "After entering the 90s, as the time for the return of Hong Kong City is getting closer and closer, the people on Hong Kong Island are disheartened, and the financial order seems to be relatively chaotic. The Thai government sees an opportunity to compete with the port city and make Thailand the financial center of Asia. To this end, the Thai government has changed its financial management system to allow funds from foreign financial institutions to enter and leave Thailand freely without the need for supervision by the Bank of Thailand. What does that mean, you know?"

One student, who estimated that he had studied economics before, immediately said: "I understand that Thailand is indeed not unjustly attacked by Soros." By doing so, the Thai government is able to enter and exit Thailand's real estate and securities markets at will. What's even more terrifying is that without the supervision of the Bank of Thailand, foreigners can borrow and borrow baht freely, and the foreign exchange futures market of Thai baht is not defensive. ”

"Yes, that's it," Song Weiyang said, "In fact, Soros launched a tentative attack on the Thai baht two years ago." However, due to Thailand's economic situation, the confidence of both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and the timely intervention of the Bank of Thailand, Soros's tentative offensive did not work. ”

The previous student asked, "What about this year? Can the Thai government win this financial war as it did two years ago?"

Song Weiyang smiled: "This year is different. In 1996, Thailand completely liberalized the regulation of foreign investment and demolished its last fortress. There is a frenzied influx of international travel capital, hot money everywhere, and a complete bubble in the stock market and real estate market. Land prices and housing prices have soared, stock prices have hit new highs, and people have taken out loans to buy cars and houses. In addition, the appreciation of the US dollar led to the appreciation of the Thai baht at a fixed exchange rate, causing Thailand's exports to plummet, Thai companies began to decline, and banks had a large number of bad debts. This false booming economic bubble bursts as soon as it is poked. ”

"But the Thai government has repelled two waves of Soros's attacks this year," the student said, "and the Bank of Thailand has also raised short-term interest rates, which has greatly increased the cost of foreign speculation, and has also bought a large amount of Thai baht from the foreign exchange market, and the spot exchange rate of Thai baht has stabilized." No matter how powerful the Quantum Fund is, it can't defeat a country, right?"

Song Weiyang smiled: "Please note, it's not a repulsion, it's just a temporary successful defense." This defense has already cost Thailand dearly, and its foreign exchange reserves are running out. Although high interest rates have increased the cost of foreign speculation, they have made the already difficult Thai manufacturing industry even worse, and the bad debt problems of banks and enterprises have been completely exposed. The latter, in particular, is the most critical. If Thailand's industry and commerce continue to prosper, international organizations and individuals will continue to take a wait-and-see attitude, even optimistic about Thailand. But when the bad debts of Thai companies and banks are exposed, it will be miserable, and the smell of blood will attract more sharks to help Soros bite Thailand to death. ”

"So, Soros will win this time?" the student asked.

"Of course. Song Weiyang nodded.

"Since Mr. Song has seen it so thoroughly, don't you plan to go to Thailand to make a vote?" the student said.

Song Weiyang said with a smile: "Since March, I have made a lot of forward short orders in Thai baht, and I have sold several short orders in stages, which can be regarded as making some pocket money." The rest of the empty orders will depend on the decisive battle between Soros and the Thai government, and I believe that Soros will win, because he is not fighting alone. ”

"Teacher Song, can you take us to short the baht?" said several students.

"It's too late," Song Weiyang said, "just half a month ago, the Thai government was forced by the situation to strictly prohibit banks from lending Thai baht to international speculators." The Thai government even coerced and induced banks to provide customer information on short forward Thai baht orders, including My Taurus Capital, which was blacklisted by the Thai government. Now Thailand's overnight lending rate is frighteningly high, and your little money is estimated to not be able to support the Thai baht plummeting. ”

In fact, Soros and others are also embarrassed now, after all, they are fighting against a government, and the other party has too many off-the-counter moves.

In order to suppress the Thai baht, Soros even sold the US Treasury bonds in his hand to raise funds, and he couldn't bear it at all when the money was less. Thailand also persuaded Singapore, Hong Kong City and Malaysia to enter the counterattack, and the current situation is that international capital is fighting against the coalition forces of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong.

It's up to whoever can't hold it first.

"Okay, it's been three minutes since class ended, goodbye students. Song Weiyang packed up his things and left, and walked out of the classroom with Lin Zhuoyun.