597 [Be cautious when making war money]
There are many experts discussing the "Iraq crisis" this month, and you can see it on television, newspapers, magazines, and the Internet.
The prevailing view is that the United States wants to control oil and maintain its hegemony in the Middle East. In addition, there are all kinds of strange remarks, such as the fact that Bush Sr. has a grudge against Uncle Saga, and that Bush Jr. will avenge his father after taking office.
Of course, there are also some domestic economists who say that the United States launched a war to maintain the hegemony of the dollar, but this voice has not attracted the attention of the general public.
Song Weiyang wrote well, and needed to use the data, so he suddenly called Shen Si: "Send me the financial data of Europe and the United States in the past two years, especially about the euro and the dollar." ”
Shen Sigang finished the Lantern Festival in his hometown, and was packing his luggage, preparing to fly back to work tomorrow. After receiving Song Weiyang's call, she immediately took out the Shenzhou mobile hard drive from her suitcase, connected it to the computer and rummaged through it for a while, and sent the relevant official public data over in one go.
Shen Si carries several mobile hard drives with him anytime and anywhere, all of which are the information he usually collects for Song Weiyang, as well as the encrypted files of his various companies. Of course, these are backup contents, and they are not absolutely confidential, and the documents that really need to be kept confidential are all in the company's computers that are not plugged into the network cable, and the paper documents are locked in the safe.
As for the financial information in Europe and the United States, there is no need to go abroad to collect it, and there are some institutions in China that are studying it. Taurus Capital sponsors economic research institutes in Hong Kong City and the mainland, and receives a lot of research reports every year, although there are few reports of real value, but there are a lot of various data.
In fact, when the Iraq issue was big, the securities department of Taurus Capital had already begun to place a small number of orders. After the United States expressed its attitude at the United Nations, Taurus Capital threw out a large amount of money to speculate in US dollar foreign exchange futures and oil futures, and many financial institutions planned to do so, but under the instruction of Song Weiyang, Taurus Capital moved faster and more resolutely.
After receiving the information, Song Weiyang continued to write:
"Since October 2000, Iraq has been receiving euros for the export of crude oil to the United States. Immediately, Iran said it would reduce the dollar price of oil, Saudi Arabia withdrew $200 billion from US banks, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries hinted at the "possibility of converting oil currency from dollars to euros". As a result of these factors, a large amount of international capital has flowed out of the United States and into Europe, and the euro exchange rate has risen rapidly......"
"In 2002, foreign investment in U.S. securities fell by only $560 billion from $978 billion two years earlier, and foreign direct investment inflows fell from $308 billion to $14 billion. According to the investor trust associations of the European Union, a record 4.9 billion euros of foreign stocks and bonds were sold in 2002, of which 60 percent of stocks and 70 percent of bonds were United States assets. That is, European investors are frantically selling American securities, and the source of everything is Iraq's abandonment of dollar oil settlements, and the dollar's exchange rate against the euro plummeted by 22% last year......"
"If this continues, the international influence of the euro will increase year by year, and even replace the dollar in important areas in some areas, such as: international crude oil settlements!"
Song Weiyang also popularized the importance of the dollar, and the United States relies on printing money to suck blood from all over the world, and he went to sleep after writing this. He is not afraid of angering the United States, because there are already scholars in China who say so, and Song Weiyang uses public data. There is already a lot of noise in Europe, and I don't know how many EU scholars are revealing that EU governments are secretly supporting the anti-war movement, because they also want to carry forward the euro.
The United States is attacking Iraq on the surface, but on the euro in essence. Even if this war will cost trillions of dollars in military spending, the United States will still go to war desperately, for the sake of the dollar, it will not work!
Song Weiyang slept soundly in the afternoon, and his blog was also lively, with the number of views of the blog post exceeding 100,000 in less than an hour. Then there were all kinds of copies and pastes from netizens, and it was forwarded to the whole network in half a day, and even the editors of some physical newspapers copied the article and planned to reprint it.
"It's still Dr. Ma's, and now it's all about oil on TV, and no one mentions the issue of the dollar at all. ”
"Amazing, when Mr. Song said this, he explained all the reasons why the United States attacked Iraq. It just so happens that I graduated with a master's degree this year, and now I am changing the direction of my dissertation and dedicating myself to an analysis of the post-war world economy. ”
"Don't talk nonsense on the first floor, read more economic publications, and you will know that there are experts who have already raised the issue of the dollar. If you want to speculate on foreign exchange futures, you can buy the dollar now, the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro has plummeted by nearly 30% in the past two years, and the war will definitely rise sharply. ”
"How did Lao Song's data come from? ”
"He is worthy of being the richest man in China, and his vision is really broad enough. Other bosses are still staring at the country, but Boss Song has already set his sights on the whole world. ”
"It makes sense for people to get rich, but ordinary people can't learn it. ”
"The United States is really disgusting, printing money if its own economy is not good, and making the people of the world pay for the United States. What kind of big killer is it, it turns out that it is only because Iraq does not accept dollars when it sells oil. ”
"Hehe, what can't the United States do? Don't forget, a few years ago, it bombed our embassy and hit our plane!"
"To support Boss Song, you must expose the truth. ”
"Every day, I must brush Boss Song's blog, and all of them are the essence, but unfortunately Boss Song writes too few articles. ”
"Don't be a sycophant to the one up in front. The essence of Song Weiyang's last blog post is a few sentences in total, saying that he was hacked to death several times in "Legend". I can write 100 articles a day. ”
"There are a lot of sycophants here, no matter how comfortable you lick Song Weiyang, people won't share a few cents from you. ”
“……”
This blog post attracted the attention of the Internet at this time, more because of Song Weiyang's status as the richest man. Because although the Iraq issue is in an uproar, it has not really fought for the time being, so maybe it will be mediated by the United Nations?
It wasn't until a month later that the war broke out, and the whole country immediately paid attention.
All the media in China are reporting on it, and even local newspapers like the Jinling Morning Post have grabbed a "scoop" from the major state media. There were also newspapers in the Jinling area that sent two "war correspondents" who did not dare to go directly to Iraq, so they went to its neighboring countries to cover the news and write a series of news on the periphery of the war.
As for the official media, there are several special pages in one report, CCTV reports around the clock, and many experts are invited to analyze and discuss. CCTV 1 and CCTV 4, after the outbreak of the war, the ratings increased by 400% and 500% respectively, and the international news was 36% higher than the prime-time ratings of CCTV, which was completely beyond everyone's expectations.
At the same time, it also shows how much the common people are concerned about this war.
Song Weiyang's article was in line with the tone, so some experts who were too lazy to check the information themselves cited various data and opinions. Some quoted and mentioned Song Weiyang's name, and some simply didn't mention it, anyway, Song Weiyang also used international public data.
The "dollar theory" quickly overwhelmed the "oil theory" and became the mainstream view of the domestic media in analyzing the US-Iraq war, which was largely brought up by Song Weiyang's blog post. Of course, countless experts and scholars also helped Song Weiyang disperse their firepower, so as not to let Lao Mei target Song Weiyang alone.
Major web portals, including Sogou Blog, have taken the opportunity to invite scholars to open columns.
Those websites also made war topics, and after clicking on the special report, Song Weiyang's blog post will always be ranked in the most prominent position in the current commentary section. As a result, now many netizens have changed their names for Song Weiyang, and they all jokingly call him "Teacher Song".
The simple change of title means that netizens have changed their perception of Song Weiyang, and everyone no longer sees him as a businessman.
And in the foreign exchange futures market, the guy who planned to speculate on the rise of the dollar against the euro quickly lost all his underwear.
In the first week of the war, the dollar rose 2.3% against the euro as countless speculators were bullish on the US and the dollar. But in the second week, everyone thought that the war might not go well, and the dollar (against the euro) fell by 1.47%. In the third week of the war, the U.S. military advanced near Baghdad, and the dollar exchange rate rose by another 1.06%.
This situation has stimulated many investment institutions to continue to spend a lot of money to buy the appreciation of the dollar, and they believe that the dollar will rise all the way.
As a result, by the fourth week, the victory of the American army was imminent, and the uncertainty of the war had receded. Attention was drawn to the huge cost of rebuilding Iraq and the huge deficit of the United States due to the war, and the dollar began to fall slightly. And then there was a whole year of continuous decline, because the U.S. economy was very sluggish. Morgan Stanley's chief economist even predicts that the dollar will depreciate by 15% in the next few years due to trade factors.
Song Weiyang may not know anything else, but he was in business in his last life, and he knows that since Iraq announced that it would use euros for oil settlements, even if the United States won the war, the depreciation of the dollar could not stop the car at all. The central banks of many countries have reduced their holdings of US dollar foreign exchange reserves and increased their euro reserves, and some commodity transactions have also begun to use euros for settlement (this phenomenon has not only not stopped due to the war, but has increased year by year anyway).
Taurus Capital and some investment institutions with super analytical and forecasting capabilities have made a lot of money by placing short orders on the US dollar exchange rate.
And countless investment institutions that predict the appreciation of the dollar can't cry. Including the netizen who fooled others into speculating on the dollar under Song Weiyang's blog, he couldn't understand why the dollar kept falling and falling so neatly after winning the war? Previously, the dollar had continued to appreciate for a whole decade, and it stands to reason that as long as the disobedient Iraq was killed, the dollar would re-enter the appreciation period!
The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when investing, and the same is true for the futures market. u