Chapter 478: The hot online gathering is listed
Towards the end of the 2003 Gregorian calendar, Wangju's IPO (initial public offering) plan was the first to be released, and according to the reorganization of shares, a total of 850 million shares were issued before the IPO.
According to Wangju's financial forecast, the company's profit in 2003 will reach an unprecedented 1.35 billion yuan.
If converted into earnings per share before the issuance is 1.59 yuan, the initial plan is to issue 100 million to 150 million shares, the issue price is between 55 yuan and 60 yuan, and it is ready to raise 5.5 billion to 9 billion Hong Kong dollars.
The price-to-earnings ratio of this issuance plan is more than 40 times, and judging from the current situation, if it does not break after the listing, the market value will exceed 50 billion Hong Kong dollars in one fell swoop!
As soon as this pricing came out, it immediately triggered repercussions in the financial circles of Xiangjiang Investment and Finance.
It's too expensive!
It's too expensive!
These are the cries of institutional investors who are ready to invest.
However, although the price is a bit high and makes them uncomfortable, in an interview, these institutional investors are still quite cautious, because the development of Wangju in the past two years is quite amazing, and the profit growth rate from last year to this year is as high as more than 200%!
If this high growth rate can be sustained, and the growth rate can reach 100% next year, then the dynamic valuation will become a price-to-earnings ratio of about 20 times, which is not very expensive.
However, can the number one Internet in the mainland be maintained with the Internet, can it maintain this high growth rate?
A lot of people are a little unsure.
Red Ridge Capital.
The boss Hong Tian held the IPO prospectus of Wangju and discussed it with his elites.
"We see that there are two main growth points of online gathering, one is games, which contributed 1.2 billion revenue last year, and the other is mobile value-added business, which contributed 650 million revenue this year, and advertising and other businesses are relatively less, sharing less than 700 million. ”
According to market research, the mobile value-added business has little chance of substantial growth, and the market is estimated to have the largest overall growth next year, that is, an increase of 30%. ”
"Boss,It's really hard to say,01 Year Wangju entered the game business in a big way,At that time, the game market was only a few hundred million in total,As for the share of online games, it is even less,A total of only more than 300 million,But in 02, the size of the online game market exceeded 800 million,This year directly broke through the 2 billion mark,The most important contribution is the network gathering,One occupies most of the country。 ”
"I have a statistic here, in 2001 the average number of online games in the mainland totaled about 1.8 million, in 2002 this number increased to 2.2 million, in 2003 it is conservatively estimated that more than 2.8 million is no problem, in 2004 it is very likely to exceed 3.5 million in 2004. ”
"According to this estimate, it is difficult to double the size of the overall online game market in the mainland, but it is not without opportunities. And according to my analysis, the share of Wangju in this online game market has basically not decreased in the case of increasing online game companies. ”
"This is because Wangju has the strongest R&D investment in the online game industry, and R&D alone costs hundreds of millions of dollars a year, and this financing says that at least 500 million yuan will be invested in online game R&D every year, which I think is quite reliable. ”
"Even I think that Wangju may also adopt a more radical R&D strategy, and advance into the deep water area of their current weak point 3D game engine, you must know that the top game engine is still leading in North America, and the 2.5D game engine that Wangju got from Goryeo is, to put it bluntly, to fool users in Asia, and change to North America, which is nothing. ”
This analyst is obviously still a fan of games, and he is quite knowledgeable about the development of gaming technology. A sentence made everyone silent for a while.
"Xu Ke, according to your judgment, the strategic focus of online gathering is to develop and strengthen their dominant position in online games and share the golden development opportunities of online games in the mainland?"
"No, boss, there is another business that we may have overlooked, that is, their search business, as far as the information I got from the non-public information of the network gathering, the R&D investment in search technology is the second largest source of investment for the network gathering, although the income of this business is now included in other categories, which looks inconspicuous. ”
"But we know that in North America, Google is now on the rise, and the growth rate of the search business can be explained by the amazing fact that in 2002 their annual report data was only $440 million in revenue, and this year's financial report is expected to exceed $1.4 billion!"
"Ladies and gentlemen, this revenue growth rate is even more terrible compared with the revenue growth rate of network aggregation, and the biggest reason behind this is the rapid development of the search business market, according to the North American market forecast, Google's revenue will at least double in 2004!"
"Ladies and gentlemen, although the search market in the mainland has not yet seen such an amazing performance opportunity, the mainland Internet has always lagged behind the development of the North American Internet, and I think the existence of this trend is one of the most unpredictable factors hidden behind the Internet gathering.
Therefore, I would like to say that the first is to implement the planning and investment of Wangju in the search business through on-site investigations, and understand the strategic ideas of Wangju in the search business;
The second is to pay close attention to the competition in the search business of the Internet in the mainland, for now, I think Du Niang's technical ability and market are not bad, and she should be the leader of the search business in the mainland.
However, the scale and financial strength of Du Niang are too different from those of the Internet Gathering, and if the IPO of the Network Gathering is successful, the financing scale can be called the largest Internet company, even if it is in the forefront of the world.
If Wangju is determined to make a difference in the search business, they will not lack funds, and they will even have the strength to buy and merge Du Niang!"
Xu Ke is an analyst with a future, Hong Tian has made a credit for him in his heart, listening to his analysis, he actually has a little bit of a clear focus in his heart.
The online game market not only occupies most of the share, but also accelerates investment and continues to soar on the road to monopoly and concentration of the market.
In the future, the search business will probably be very profitable, although the network gathering is now silent, but it has been included in their internal strategic planning in the key investment, if the future market explodes, the network will obviously not be absent, which is an opportunity for investors to gamble!
Since Hongtian is a technology venture capital with high venture capital, he only needs to follow the trend of market technology development.
The valuation of Wangju now seems to be too high, but if it weren't so high, his Hongling Capital would not be so easy to get the chips.
Presumably, this valuation will scare off a large number of retail investors, otherwise it is unknown that the number of subscriptions may create a new record with the amazing performance of online gathering.
"Okay, then everyone acts according to Xu Ke's ideas, I need to get a more accurate and in-depth analysis report before the listing of the network, if the opportunity is good, this time the company is ready to invest a lot, and everyone will pay a very generous dividend after making a profit in the future." ”
After Hong Tian finally arranged the task, he didn't bother to summarize, and directly announced the end of the meeting and let everyone do things.
......
During this period of time, not only Hongling Capital, but also many capitals in Xiangjiang are doing similar analysis, of course, it is a pity that not every capital has a fairly expert industry analyst like Xu Ke.
For the business development of Wangju, many capitals still cite some forecasts in the market in their analysis, and the revenue growth range of these predictions is predicted from 30% to 150%, which is completely confusing.
But there is no doubt about one thing, for the valuation of online gatherings, although everyone complains, in fact, their hearts are slowly accepting, not to mention anything else, just the popularity of the online game market, as long as these people go to the Internet café to take a look.
There is absolutely not a single one in the 100 Internet cafes that does not play the game of Internet gathering! Moreover, in every Internet café, the number of people who play the game of Internet gathering is absolutely the majority.
Compared with other network services, the user stickiness of the game is too high, it is simply terrifyingly high, and it has already made people shout out the title of electronic "opium".
For online games, this is of course quite a negative impact, but at the same time, it also reflects the strong user attraction of the online business.
Prior to this, investors had not issued any Internet application that could have as high user stickiness as online games.
And it's still viral, and many people invite friends to play the same game.
During this period in 2003, although some terrible virus made the Internet café business a lot lighter, the online game business was affected a lot in the first half of the year.
However, with the lifting of the national virus alert and the gradual spread of computers in the home, the performance of online games in the second half of the year generally improved to a new level.
There is nothing wrong with investing in online games, this is a potential consensus among everyone.
After a simple investigation, Liang Baiheng understood the bottom line of market acceptance, and proposed a public offering of 58 Hong Kong dollars per share, which was recognized by Ding Shi and Zhao Shaodong, and became the final listing price.
Just as Liang Baiheng concluded in his preliminary investigation, Wangju, which chose to make its IPO on December 18, was not given a cold shoulder because of the ultra-high pricing of more than 40 times the price-earnings ratio.
More than 100 times the enthusiasm of investors for subscription allowed Wangju to successfully issue directly with a maximum limit of 150 million shares.
However, this is not the point, the most exciting thing is that the network gathering shares issued at such a high price, in the first day of listing, once directly broke through the ultra-high price of 70 Hong Kong dollars per share, and although the closing declined, it also closed steadily at a high level of 65 Hong Kong dollars.
Such a hot scene simply surprised the market.
Investors who dare to participate in the network gathering at a high price, if they are more aggressive short-term traders, many of them have reaped more than 15% of the income on the same day, and the turnover rate on the opening day has reached an ultra-high turnover rate of 100%.
You must know that the outstanding shares issued are only 15% of the shares, and more of the founder's original shares are still untradeable during the lock-up period, which shows the enthusiasm of the day's trading.
Although the next market was not as exciting as the first day, it still maintained a volatile upward trend.
Although it is said that Yongxiang Securities's disk protection funds are carefully protecting the disk, to be honest, Liang Baiheng's traders rarely have the opportunity to catch the 58 yuan issue price.
For the disk protection funds, as long as they do not break, other situations will be intervened unless the fluctuations on the day are too intense.
These are unwritten conventions, and the funds cannot be too much, otherwise it is inevitable that they will be sued for market manipulation.
Therefore, the high-flying trend of online gathering makes Liu Ruoyi have to choose another opportunity even if she wants to increase her position.
The meat didn't rot in the bowl, which was a bit of a pity, but it was nothing.
Judging from Liu Ruoyi's high-tech venture capital holdings, it is the second largest shareholder after Ding Shi after the issuance, with a difference of less than 2 percentage points, and the current value of the shareholding exceeds 15 billion Hong Kong dollars at the current high price of online gathering!
Compared with the original investment amount, it is simply a huge profit!
Not only did she gain so much, but Zhao Shaodong and Chu Luo, who also had a large number of online shares, also increased their net worth, and the market value of the online shares under the names of Best and Yaxing Capital was close to 10 billion!
These two did not continue to buy after separating the shares of Wangju, while Liu Ruoyi continued to buy part of it through the market and institutional shareholders, so now the difference in shareholding comes out.
Even if they knew that their shares would be very valuable before going public, Zhao Shaodong and Chu Luo did not expect that they would be even more valuable in their imagination.
With a net worth of tens of billions, 2 years ago, who would dare to imagine the two of them!
Even if they are the descendants of wealthy families, it is not possible to earn such a net worth in three or five years.
Not everyone has Liu Ruoyi's means of turning stones into gold.
It is clear that there is 911, the outbreak of the Iraq war, and it is possible to make big withdrawals in the futures market.
Doing business seriously, Li Ershao is the best sample of the second generation of Xiangjiang Fu, he has been tossing for so many years, and he does not have so many assets under his name.
Although Li Ershao's net worth had exceeded tens of billions when he was brilliant at the beginning, but later the chicken feathers were beaten back to their original shape, if it weren't for someone to support him, Li Ershao would not have been able to get out: the stock price of Yingdong in 2003 has fallen by as much as 96% compared with its peak!
Replaced by Li Ershao, who was in the original time and space, it was almost the most depressed time in 2003.
But in this time and space, after Li Ershao met Liu Ruoyi, he followed a few projects here, and got the leading power of the development of the advertising business of Focus Media's office building.
Now play with peace of mind to play with his Focus Media office building advertisement, and then just sit and wait for Aurora Media to go public and count the money.
It's just different with your back to a tree.
All roads lead to Rome, and some people are born in Rome.
Compared with the original time and space, Li Ershao in this time and space, although Yingdong has caused some bad effects, his net worth is still considerable.
It's just that seeing that Zhao Shaodong has gained so much on the Internet gathering, Li Ershao once again said that he cried and fainted in the toilet for "selling his penguin shares"!