"I don't agree with Director Chung's opinion. "www.biquge.info Last year, the United States published a book called "The Third Wave", which proposed that the first wave representing the agricultural society had passed, and the second wave representing the industrial society was about to pass, and that mankind would enter the third wave in the future, that is, the knowledge society, or the information society. In the information society, people will work mainly through computers, and it will not be a problem for every household to have a computer. ”

"But what do you need a computer for?" Lao Zhang, do you need a computer at home?" Zhong Qifan said.

"I ...... Of course I don't. Zhang Hanyun hesitated for a moment and replied.

Zhong Qifan turned to everyone again and said, "So, who needs a computer?"

Staff member Huang Ming replied: "Director Zhong, your question itself is not right. I have read some synopses of the book "The Third Wave" mentioned by Lao Zhang, and they are talking about the future situation, and the planning we are making is also oriented to 2020. Just because we don't need computers at home now doesn't mean we won't need them in the future, right?"

"I'm talking about the future. Zhong Qifan raised the bar and said, "I used to be engaged in computers, and I still have a certain say in the use of computers." Computers are used for scientific calculations, and they must be used in the Academy of Sciences, but what are they used in every household? Everyone thinks about it, can you use a computer in your home?"

"It's still quite useful, isn't it?" Feng Xiaochen said with a smile. As a time-traveler, it was really a depressing thing to watch people in the early 80s talk about the information society, which was obviously a matter of common sense for later generations, but today it can be regarded as heresy.

Zhang Hanyun's book "The Third Wave" was published in the United States in 1980 and immediately caused a sensation. However, the book's greatest contribution lies in the explanation of the information society, which does not involve much technical aspects, but focuses on the social changes that may occur in the information age, such as diversification, individualization, miniaturization tendencies, and so on. The decentralized office mentioned in the book is actually the SOHO family that actually appeared in later generations. The concept of self-service and do-it-yourself has some relevance to DIY and 3D printing technology. The book talks about the decline of traditional media, the emergence of miniaturized media, and information fragmentation, which is quite consistent with many characteristics of the self-media era.

Limited to the technical level of the year, the author Alf Toffler did not foresee the powerful impact of mobile Internet technology, and failed to mention concepts such as the Internet, cloud computing, and big data, which also proves that Lao Tuo is not a traverser, but just a prophet.

"The Third Wave" attracted widespread attention in China after the publication of the Chinese version in 1984, and for a period of time, it was almost embarrassing to say hello to people without talking about the third wave, just as in later generations you don't talk about Industry 4.0 or 3D printing, you dare not say that you understand industry. The staff of the Heavy Equipment Office are more cutting-edge, so they are already talking about the concept of the third wave, but no matter how avant-garde they are, they cannot imagine what the information society of the future will look like.

"Let me give you an example. Feng Xiaochen decided to do popular science for everyone, he didn't plan to rob Toffler's job, but it was okay to say something about the concept of the future to his colleagues in the Heavy Equipment Office, at least let everyone have some forward-looking vision, so as not to make some overly conservative mistakes.

"We now have to come to work every day, discuss a problem, and then write a document. If computer technology is fully developed, we can connect computers through network technology, and then stay in our own homes, discuss calculations, and then pass the written documents to other colleagues through the computer. In this way, doesn't every household need a computer?" Feng Xiaochen said.

"This kind of computer network already exists abroad, and the U.S. military established ARPANET in 1968, which has now been extended to the non-military sector, covering the entire territory of the United States, and even users in the United Kingdom and Norway are able to connect to American computers through ARPANET. ”

Staff member Chen Mo interjected, this is a girl with a German major, as her name suggests, her personality is relatively silent, but her vision is very broad, and she knows a lot about foreign situations.

Feng Xiaochen nodded and said, "I'm talking about the ARPANET model, which will be applied to the whole world in the future, including China, of course." We'll all be able to work from our own homes. ”

Zhong Qifan said: "I've also heard of this thing, but it's the United States, not China." Xiao Chen just mentioned that the United States launched this APA net in 1968, but it is still only used by some important universities, scientific research institutions, and the military, and it has not yet spread to thousands of households. If it is to reach thousands of households, I estimate that it will take a few more decades for the United States, and as for China, I am afraid that it will be the end of the next century. ”

"Not necessarily. The chubby Huang Ming said, "Haven't you heard of Moore's Law, which states that the integration of integrated circuits doubles every 24 months." Computers that we think are complex and expensive today will be very simple and very cheap in 20 years, and everyone will be able to afford them. ”

"That's true. Feng Xiaochen said, "The emergence of Apple computers has made computers begin to enter the family. Our country is growing slowly, but our growth rate is very fast. So, at most around the year 2000, home computers will be widely available. Further on, handheld information devices will appear. ”

"What do you mean by a handheld information device?" Chen Mo asked curiously.

"Mobile phones, tablets. Feng Xiaochen said, and then, he gave a detailed description of the concepts such as mobile phones and tablets that appeared in later generations to everyone, and introduced the phenomena such as what game family, chopping hands group, and burying one's head in the family, so that everyone, including Wu Shican, was fascinated.

"Xiao Feng, your imagination is too rich. ”

After listening to Feng Xiaochen's narration, Wu Shican said with emotion, "When that day comes, the four modernizations will really be realized." ”

"It's not just the four modernizations, that's simply ......" Huang Ming said this, I don't know what words to use to express it, indeed, in the ideal of the four modernizations, there is no such thing as mobile Internet.

"Xiao Feng, when do you think what you said will come true?" Zhong Qifan asked.

Feng Xiaochen said: "According to our current development rate, we will definitely be able to achieve it before 2010. ”

"I think you're too optimistic. Zhong Qifan said, "If you say it's 2050, I can barely believe it." Also, what if it's in the United States...... There are some possibilities to achieve such a goal by 2020. ”

Feng Xiaochen has nothing to say, his thinking is one step ahead of others, that is called a genius, more than ten steps ahead of others, in the eyes of others, he is a madman. What he said was clearly a real situation in China in 2010, but it became a myth in the eyes of people in 1981. Back then, there was a science fiction novel called "Flying to Sagittarius", which wrote about driverless cars, interstellar travel, and neutrino communications, but it didn't write about mobile phones and the Internet, and the library carried on the spaceship was dozens of boxes of microcrystals, each of which was the size of a sesame seed, and needed to be pinched with your fingers and put into a special machine, and then you could read it......

Well, in fact, there is no need to laugh at the vision of the predecessors, people today may not be able to imagine what kind of new technology will appear in 20 years, maybe what predictions and science fiction we talk about today will prove to be too underestimating the power of technology in 20 years.

"Director Zhong, there is not much point in arguing about the speed of development of electronic technology now. However, I think there needs to be some forethought as we make our plans. The future era must be the information age, and the field of electronic information technology will be full of opportunities. We should start the layout from now on, and I will say some directions: high-performance integrated circuit design technology, production technology, advanced packaging and testing technology, semiconductor material technology, thin-film liquid crystal display technology, and key special facilities and instruments. All these technologies must not only be mastered, but also meet the requirements of industrialization. At that time, even if our domestic market cannot provide enough demand, it is necessary for us to face the international market. Feng Xiaochen said.

"I agree with Director Fung. Huang Ming was the first to raise his hand in support, "When we make plans, we can't just think about following abroad, we should have the courage to catch up with and surpass foreign countries." Why do we have to import color TVs from abroad, I think that one day it should be foreigners who import color TVs from China, what Toshiba, Sharp, in front of us Chinese have to bow their heads. ”

"Haha, Xiao Huang, you just dream, it's absolutely impossible. Zhong Qifan said disdainfully.

"Well, it's far away, let's go back to this plan. Wu Shican had to speak, this building was already crooked, as the owner of the building, he had the obligation to interrupt everyone's free play. He pointed at Feng Xiaochen and said, "Xiao Feng, you just talked about your views on the direction of the electronic information industry, and you can also talk about other aspects, we are the Immortal Club today, and we can speak freely." This is a solution that we have come up with, and you, as a bystander, should be able to see some of the things that we have overlooked. ”

Feng Xiaochen nodded and said:

"Okay, then I'll talk about each item. First of all, I think we should also focus on a new area, and that is new energy vehicles. The emergence of the oil crisis, as well as the enhancement of environmental awareness of residents in Western countries, has gradually declined traditional fuel vehicles, and the rise of new energy vehicles will be irreversible ......" (to be continued. )