"I'm afraid of popping. Gu Biao applauded lightly twice, and followed Song Yimin's words:

"Sure enough, the heroes see the same thing, so Professor Fu, it's not that you have read history, you can apply history all the time.

Even if you know that 'the same trick can't work for Saint Seiya a second time', when it comes to practice, many people still can't vaguely analyze whether something happened for the first time or the second time in a dynasty.

Sometimes the inherent prejudice can easily make people selectively blind, just like Confucianism because of his blind belief in the Zhengshuo concept of official history, he never thought about the possibility of Emperor Wen of Han killing his nephew and usurping the throne, but took it for granted that Zhu Yunwen should be replaced by Emperor Jing of Han rather than the variable position of Emperor Hou Shao.

If the security adviser on the president's side is a fool who will only cause trouble in Persia, he will only get into trouble like Ke Leng . Obviously, a trick has been accepted by the Chinese, but because of his ignorance, he told the president that the Chinese have not seen this trick, so this fool will only make the president humiliated by his reckless actions, and in vain destroy the relations between the two countries, but in the end he will get nothing. ”

Vogel also had to fall into deep thought:

Indeed, it is easier said than done, and those who understand history may not be able to use history accurately, but sometimes they will borrow the wrong object when borrowing from the situation. Obviously, he should borrow Zhu Yunwen, but he blindly and arrogantly borrowed it from Emperor Jing of Han, then he will inevitably pay the price of underestimating the enemy. This kind of destructive attempt is better than not doing anything well in the first place. ”

Gu Biao comforted: "This can't be blamed on you, the history of Americans has never changed dynasties, so Americans lack vigilance, they are used to repeating games forever, and speculating about other countries with their own heartlessness."

I heard that some of your other Harvard historical research centers still have a rather school of historical outlook, and I believe that Americans will have such strange and mysterious ideas as 'the 80-year national fortune cycle', so I think that the tricks used in the last reincarnation will definitely heal the scars after 80 years, forget the pain, and can be tossed and killed again.

In 1781 you were fighting the War of Independence, in 1785 you were winning, you established the state, this is the first eighty years, the beginning;

In 1861 you broke out the Civil War, in 1865 you won the war, and you began to industrialize the country from an agrarian nation. This is the second eighty years, Xing;

In 1941 you broke out World War II, in 1945 you won the war, and you felt like the leaders of the free world. This is the third eighty years, Sheng;

……

After all, if you don't 'do the pits you have walked through can come again in one, two, three, four,' your brains will soon be running out. You didn't change the dynasty and kill the Reset key to clear the memory of each other's intrigues, you can only set up a regular cleaning of memory fragments, and then pretend to forget everything. ”

Let's not talk about decay, anyway, it's far from 1987, so Vogel doesn't think that Gu Biao's words are hidden.

"Communicating with Mr. Gu has really benefited a lot. It can be seen that Mr. Gu, you are a pragmatist, a pragmatist who looks at money. You don't love the United States or China, and you just hope that the two sides won't engage in useless friction that has no results and delays your business. ”

"If you love to understand it this way, that's for the best. Gu Biao smiled with a perfunctory expression in his heart, wishing that the other party would think so.

Smart people speak, and it is enough to get to this point.

Gu Biao got up to see off the guests and asked the bodyguards to drive the two university scholars back to the Plaza Hotel.

……

After getting rid of groups of scholars and opinions in the financial circles, Gu Biao finally relaxed.

Through these necessary social activities, he also temporarily cleared his suspicion of premeditated annexation of Wang An's computer.

At the same time, some preventive shots have also been given, so as not to overly drag down Gu Ao's own career when Americans are overly vigilant about China-related capital in the future.

Of course, a moderate amount of small range of drag, more or less there will always be, the rivers and lakes will not always be calm, how can it be smooth sailing in business, and any country will give you the green light.

The results of Gu's interview with the Wall Street Journal also quickly appeared in the newspaper.

Wang An and Apple's shareholders who secretly transferred the contradictions and expanded the scope of the attack without Jobs' secret were also eliminated by Lian Ban.

Most of the tech sector stocks, which have not been exposed to the risk of disruption for several years, regained the rhythm of the broader market bull market after a brief correction in mid-to-late April.

However, Wang An, Apple and several old hard disk manufacturers have to bear the malaise in the bull market alone. The people on Wall Street are also happy to see the impact surface being limited, so it is acceptable for them to give up a few abandoned children with particularly obvious characteristics to educate retail investors.

In addition, in this process, in order to get rid of himself moderately, Gu Biao has not given up his cooperation with Peterson of the Blackstone Fund.

Since three years ago, in order to force Zhang Zhongmou away and dig a pit for Texas Instruments, Gu Biao and Peterson's Blackstone Fund have made waves on the Nasdaq of the US stock market.

After Texas Instruments severed its arm and Xiangji was established, about half of Gu's funds were siphoned off for the construction of Xiangji and other follow-up projects, but there is always a capital of five to one billion US dollars, which can be temporarily suspended or borrowed.

Although Gu Biao doesn't like speculation, there are no earth-shattering big cases that can be presciently profitable. {He was not engaged in finance in his previous life, so I don't remember those typical cases of individual stocks}

But Gu Biao will not let the money sit in vain, if there is nothing to do, he will automatically entrust it to Peterson.

Blackstone Fund is also the most successful fund company in the history of the United States until the beginning of the 21st century, and it belongs to the kind of fund company that had nothing to do until the subprime mortgage crisis in 08. If you put the money there, you can always make money by doing it.

In this case, since Gu Biao had a bad relationship with Wang Lie in the second half of last year, and found an excuse to suppress and annex Wang An's computer, he began to let Peterson target technology stocks.

Especially after McNamas talked to Gu Biao and asked him to write the book "The Innovator's Dilemma". As soon as Gu Biao began to write, he realized that he could understand the causes and consequences of the 87 stock market crash

In addition to the pullback caused by the previous bull market, the 87 stock market crash was mainly because Americans "couldn't understand the sustainability of tech stocks, so they overestimated the market value of tech stocks."

And when they finally learn to be obedient and will look at it, the stock will inevitably return to rationality significantly. Of course, there is additional panic beyond the reasonable pullback of "back to rationality".

This makes Gu feel that his controllability of the stock market crash has strengthened a little bit, as long as the American shareholder public's model misjudgment of technology stocks is not broken, the stock market crash is not easy to occur.

And when it is punctured, Gu Biao can influence.

Therefore, although he could not predict the stock market crash or postpone the stock market crash, he could appropriately advance the stock market crash.

As for how much in advance, it all depends on the strength and progress of media literacy.

This understanding of Gu Biao gave Peterson and the Blackstone Fund a big picture of the situation, and when he commissioned the funds, Gu Biao told Peterson to help him keep an eye on companies that were similar to the Texas Instruments model he had studied.

That is, the company that is "currently reducing R&D expenditures and will do better in future financial reports, and it will take several years for its current main technology products to be replaced by the next generation and completely expose the hidden dangers of lack of intergenerational competitiveness".

Since the fourth quarter of last year, anyone who sees that the P/E ratio of such companies has not been fully evaluated and digested, they will buy decisively, and then insist on holding it in the bull market.

As for the specific assessment homework, it is left to a professional like Peterson to deal with, and Gu Biao only provides a grand strategy.

Such a combination model requires very little foresight. Gu Biao is equivalent to an alternative Buffett

Warren Buffett is just an investor who "only invests in industries that he has studied deeply and knows how to value thoroughly", he is very respectful, and he also knows how to stop in moderation, and does not touch what he does not understand. So Warren Buffett never invests in emerging technology stocks.

Gu Biao is also very awe-inspiring, and he is also very moderate, but on the contrary, he only knows the most about technology stocks, and only invests in technology stocks, and does not touch other traditional stocks that he doesn't know much about.

He believes that at this juncture in '87, no one knows better than him where the structural bubble of tech stocks is.

Now, as "The Innovator's Dilemma" is becoming more and more popular and accepted by the world, Gu Biao feels that the information asymmetry in it is disappearing at a speed visible to the naked eye.

Therefore, he cared that Peterson could start to reduce his position at a high level and gradually exited.

The first batch of Texas Instruments stocks that "laid off the R&D department, but did not show signs of disease in two or three years", began to be sold off in late April, and continued to increase the amount of selling after May. Because the trading volume of the sell-off is hundreds of millions of dollars, it really caused some shocks, but in the overall bull market environment of U.S. stocks, it has been completely absorbed.

Peterson estimates that throughout May, including a slight increase of one or two times the leverage on some stocks, there will be about $300 million or 400 million in funds that can be disposed of, and the net income may be more than 100 million.

For Gu Biao, who also maintained a principal of more than $500 million when he was poorest, this kind of interest is not an exaggeration, and it is normal in a big bull market. Of course, considering the scale of cash-out, it is a bit valuable.

In the following June, Peterson can withdraw more funds, and at this pace, if the withdrawal is fast, all the funds can be withdrawn in July in the summer, and a total of two or three billion dollars of guaranteed income will be maintained.

If Gu Biao allows him to retreat more slowly, give him an extra month, and then throw it away at the end of the summer vacation, or even at the end of the third quarter, Peterson estimates that he can make a lot more, and the total net profit will rise from two or three hundred million to four or five billion US dollars.

Of course, the cost is also relative, that is, if there are market fluctuations in these months, or the market confidence wakes up in advance, the tail market will be smashed in the hand, and the meat will have to be cut at that time.

Gu Biao still prefers the previous plan, that is, to throw it away as much as possible in June and July, and would rather make less money.

Gu Biao also doesn't like to make money from financial speculation, although he has found it faster and easier to make money several times, which makes people feel lazy to do business again.

However, Gu Biao always warned himself vigilantly: his incidental capital operation, making money is secondary, the key is to establish his god-level prestige in the American business community.

He wants to change himself from a lucky man who broke out of the twentieth siege and killed Atari to a son of the plane who has succeeded in two crossings and has a survival rate of 1 in 400. The next time he wants to throw out a point like "The Innovator's Dilemma", the whole market will obey him and dare not question it.

Therefore, making hundreds of millions of dollars is just for Liwei, not for the money itself. The money is only used to enhance the credibility of his words, and it seems that he is not a literary seller, but an existence with a brilliant combat record. 6