After Ren Pingsheng got Wang Xing and instilled the future development concept of Weibo into his team, he ushered in the long-lost course of Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business's EMBA is not taught in a centralized manner like other institutions, and considering that all students are successful people with successful careers and do not have so much time to spare for full-time classes, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business has developed a very user-friendly and orderly course schedule to meet the different requirements of different students.

Today's class is still arranged at the Oriental Plaza teaching site, but the way of teaching is a little different, the business school did not send its own professors to give the class, but invited two guest guests to give lectures to the students.

These two guest guests are not small, and they are all famous.

One is Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China, SOHO China has launched a number of commercial and residential SOHO real estate projects in recent years, and has become one of the major powers in the domestic real estate industry.

The other is Wang Shi, the chairman of Wanke Real Estate, this person needless to say, since its inception, Wanke Real Estate has been the leader and boss of the domestic real estate industry, Wang Shi has also been rated as one of the most outstanding business managers in 20 years by the major rankings for its outstanding achievements in real estate management and business management over the years, and has been invited to be a visiting professor of major business schools, and is a veritable contemporary entrepreneur leader.

Today's lecture was also an interesting one, taking the form of a dialogue between two guest guests, and the main content of the dialogue was how to view the current situation and future of the real estate market.

In addition to the two guests, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business also invited Guan Huanting, a well-known host of China Television, as the moderator of this dialogue.

Guan Huanting is a rising star in China Television in recent years, she not only has a very high level of business, but also as a host of the all-rounder's cross-border greatness, from the original cultural programs, film and television information programs, foreign language programs, to the current talk shows, financial programs, high-end forums, all of which can be used, all of which have won praise from all walks of life.

From 2006 to 2007, Guan Huanting continued to appear on the stage of the Spring Festival Gala and became a well-known host known to the whole people.

As the host of ZOTV, Guan Huanting first introduced the background of the dialogue:

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2007, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by 7.6 percent over the previous year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous year. The price increase in housing prices in the Zhujiang Delta, Yanjing, Hanhai and other cities has even been as high as more than 40%, and the average price of commercial housing in many cities has climbed to more than 10,000 yuan. In 2007, a total of 7 real estate enterprises in the country exceeded 10 billion yuan in sales revenue, which was the largest number of more than 10 billion yuan in the past years.

Guan Huanting should have a good relationship with these two bigwigs in the real estate circle today, so her questioning is also very straightforward and aggressive.

"Mr. Wang, do you think the real estate market boom in 2007 is reasonable?"

Wang Shi was wearing a shirt and pullover sweater, jeans and sneakers today, looking very laid-back and not as tight as most entrepreneurs, he replied in a very natural tone.

"As an entrepreneur, the market is definitely welcome, and it is reasonable for enterprises to make money. ”

Guan Huanting didn't let Wang Shi pass sloppily, she asked: "Mr. Wang, I'm not asking about Wanke's operation, I'm asking what you think of the entire real estate market?"

Wang Shi's face suddenly became solemn, and he said: "I think this year's market is full of excitement, and the excitement is too much. ”

Guan Huanting frowned lightly and asked, "What does it mean to be excited?"

Wang Shi replied: "Excitement is irrational. Housing prices are rising too fast, in this process that is too fast, we think that in addition to some more reasonable, such as some second- and third-tier cities, prices have not risen much in the past two years, and it is normal to rise; other cities have risen too fast, such as Dongguan has risen by 74%, which makes no sense. ”

As the host, Guan Huanting was very skillful in guiding the topic, and she asked: "Why do you say that? Isn't it a good thing to make more money?"

Wang Shi began to talk seriously this time.

"Because I came through the ups and downs of trading in the '80s. Wanke has such a lesson, for example, we make video recorders. At that time, the cost price of imports was 2,000 yuan, but our wholesale price was 7,000 yuan and the retail price was 13,000 yuan. We used to be very proud and made so much money, but we soon found that because its video recorders were so profitable, we imported all video recorders and operated video recorders, and the result was, of course, an oversupply. From a few hundred percent of the profit to 80%, 70%, 60% of the cost, and even to 50% in the end, Wanke finally lost a lot. ”

Wang Shi stretched out a finger and said: "At that time, I came to a conclusion that the market is very fair, so if you make huge profits from the market, in the end, the market will let you spit back, and let you vomit more." ”

There was a warm applause from the audience, all cheering for Wang Shi's words.

Wang Shi's speech in public will not disappoint, his speech has both easy-to-understand business stories, as well as logical and accurate business logic, every public speech can be to the current economic and private enterprise concerns, coupled with his skillful way of speaking, not only to create a "Chinese entrepreneur leader" brand, but also to the public image of Wanke enterprise is also very helpful.

Of course, later, Wang Shi's role as an entrepreneurial leader gradually gave way to the more powerful and incendiary Ma Yun.

However, at this point in time, Wang Shi is still one of the most heavyweight figures in the business world.

Ren Pingsheng paid a lot of attention to Wang Shi in his previous life, and he also worked hard to study his oratory skills, although his path after rebirth had nothing to do with Wang Shi, but Wang Shi did help him a lot in a sense, so being able to get close to Wang Shi this time is also a kind of wish for him.

Guan Huanting patiently waited for the applause from the audience to quiet down, and then asked with a smile: "2007 is coming to an end, how would you sum up this year?" ”

Wang Shi said four words softly: "My heart is pounding." ”

Guan Huanting raised her eyebrows lightly and said suspiciously: "Heartbreaking? Why do you use this word." ”

Wang Shi sighed and said: "In the past 2007, the market has been crazy about the expectation of land acquisition, the crazy rise in prices, and the anxious mentality of consumers, I don't think there is a better word to describe it than to be shocked with your heart." ”

Guan Huanting nodded slightly, followed his train of thought and asked, "Panic is a description of a person's fearful feeling, what are you afraid of?"

Wang Shi said earnestly: "I have this fear, the market has its laws, when you feel that its income changes at a very fast rate, and suddenly grows very, very fast, this is a terrible thing." That's how I feel when the market goes crazy. ”

Guan Huanting grabbed a little and asked, "Do you use the word crazy?"

Wang Shi replied very dryly: "Yes." ”

Guan Huanting turned to the public and said with a smile: "Wang is always a very humble person, let me give you a background supplement." With the soaring housing prices in 2007, Wanke's sales grew rapidly from 22 billion in 2006 to 52.6 billion in 2007. At present, it is already the largest listed real estate company in the country. ”

The audience burst into thunderous applause, and Wang Shi nodded slightly towards the crowd, but there was not much pride and complacency on his face.

Guan Huanting looked at Wang Shi with deep meaning and asked, "Even if you have achieved such good results, you are still frightened." ”

Wang Shi replied meaningfully: "The current housing prices are soaring, and they are full of bubbles, and the bubble will burst one day, and Wanke is ready to deal with the bursting of the bubble." ”

As soon as these words came out, there was a series of discussions in the audience.

Wang Shi's words did shock many people, because the real estate market in 2007 was indeed too prosperous, all the real estate companies felt that the real estate bull market was coming, and they were gearing up to expand the scale of operation.

At a time when everyone is unanimously optimistic about housing prices, Wang Shi, as a leader in the industry, believes that there is a bubble, and the leader Wanke is still preparing to deal with the bursting of the bubble, which is too unexpected by everyone.

Only Ren Pingsheng nodded slightly, of course he knew the next development of the situation, and indeed followed the direction predicted by Wang Shi, due to the sharp rise in housing prices across the country in 2007, the state came out with a series of policies to restrict, so the rise in housing prices around the country slowed down.

However, what Wang Shi did not expect was that the financial crisis that broke out in the United States in 2008 spread to the world, and in order to ensure the growth rate of domestic GDP, the country had to relax the restrictions on real estate again, and then housing prices began a retaliatory rise, and thus opened the golden decade of China's property market.

Of course, this does not affect Ren Pingsheng's respect for Wang Shi at this moment.

When Ren Pingsheng was in reverie, the conversation between Guan Huanting and Wang Shi had come to an end.

Next, she turned to Pan Shiyi, who had been smiling and listening, and asked:

"Mr. Pan, in 2007, the house price rose wildly, and Mr. Wang said that he was frightened, how do you feel?"

Pan Shiyi wore a neat suit with black-rimmed glasses, dressed as a cultural person. It's just that the top of his bare head and the big teeth that are exposed from his mouth look very conspicuous, he tilted his head slightly, looked at the audience and said, "It's too exaggerated, do you need to be frightened?"

"In terms of house prices rising by 10% to 20%, in China it seems to be more, in Hong Kong, sometimes it is 50% in a month or two, Wang Shi is a person who has seen the world, and he still needs to be frightened because of the 10% price increase, I don't think I need it. ”

Wen Yan, Guan Huanting immediately turned her body to Wang Shi and said with a smile: "Mr. Pan said that you are too exaggerated, do you need to be frightened? ”

Wang Shi held Erlang's legs, and his posture was very relaxed and authentic:

"Lao Pan is a very smart person, on the eve of the real estate crash in Hainan, he cut his meat and fled, took millions to Huairou in the suburbs of Beijing to develop, and caught up with the best moment of the domestic real estate market. Therefore, he is a slippery person, and his body is very soft, and he can change at any time according to the situation. ”

Wang Shi said as he compared Pan Shiyi with his hand: "I suggest that everyone should look at this person's words dialectically. ”

The audience burst into laughter.

Feng Yan, who was sitting next to Ren Pingsheng, also slapped his knee and scolded:

"Lao Pan, this kid, is the most fucking unrighteous, when the brothers founded Wantong together, he was in charge of finance in Yanjing, and I was in charge of projects in Hainan, this kid always set up a card for me, and finally transferred assets to do his own business, which is really fucking slippery. ”

Ren Pingsheng smiled and nodded in agreement, although he was not completely convinced by Feng Yan's one-sided description, Pan Shiyi was able to survive the previous real estate regulation and make SOHO China bigger and bigger, which must have its own uniqueness.

Although Wang Shi was not polite at all, Pan Shiyi was obviously very familiar with him, and he was not angry, and laughed with everyone, revealing his two white front teeth.

Immediately afterwards, Pan Shiyi's counterattack came, and he said to the audience: "I am different from Wang Shi, he is a professional manager, he has to consider the shareholders and cannot disclose the news falsely." ”

Although Wang Shi has a great reputation in the society, because Wanke took the initiative to give up his equity and became a professional manager when he was listed, although Wanke has developed greatly and the stock price has risen very high, these have little to do with Wang Shi.

In terms of personal assets, Pan Shiyi, who has been listed in Hong Kong, is much higher than Wang Shi, and even many unknown real estate owners are richer than Wang Shi.

Although Pan Shiyi pointed to the lifeline, Wang Shi did not lose his temper because of this, he just pointed to Pan Shiyi and said: "As an entrepreneur, honesty is the first priority, whether you are a professional manager or not, you can't lie." ”

Guan Huanting saw the tension between the two, and the atmosphere was a little white-hot, so she hurriedly came forward and said:

In fact, what the two of them said is a judgment on the future market, whether Mr. Wang is right, or Mr. Pan is right, we might as well wait for next year. ”

Wang Shi borrowed the slope to get off the donkey, nodded and said: "Exaggeration or not exaggeration is a personal feeling, because maybe I say this word, everyone is finding fault, I can only say that this is the most appropriate, let's take a look in half a year." ”

After this episode was revealed, Guan Huanting continued to ask: "Two CEOs, what do you think about next year's market?"

Wang Shi still maintains his original view: "The market has risen too fast, and it will inevitably enter the adjustment stage next year." ”

Pan Shiyi clasped his hands in front of his chest, shook his head and said, "I don't dare to agree." ”

Guan Huanting asked Wang Shidao: "Mr. Wang, do you think it will be adjusted, where does the basis for this judgment come from?"

Wang Shitan said: "It's a very simple logic, the middle class can't afford to buy a house, so this market must be adjusted, this is a premise." ”

Facing the audience, Guan Huanting added: "Usually the middle class we define refers to people with an annual income of between 60,000 and 300,000 yuan. ”

Wang Shi nodded and said: "One of the abnormal manifestations of the current real estate market is that the proportional relationship between residents' income and monthly housing loans has far exceeded the reasonable range. The income-to-monthly ratio is the household income divided by the monthly payment, and the smaller the number, the greater the pressure on the monthly payment. ”

Guan Huanting asked, "What is the reasonable range?"

Wang Yongyong pointed his finger and said: "According to international empirical statistics, generally speaking, the most reasonable is 3. ”

Guan Huanting continued to ask: "So what is the proportion in 2007?"

Wang Shi raised his hand at these data and said, "1.9." ”

Guan Huanting looked surprised and asked, "Does 1.9 mean more than half?"

Wang Shi agreed: "Yes, it means that 60% of your income will be used to provide housing. ”

Guan Huanting asked, "So what do you want to illustrate with the data you just provided?"

Wang Shi shook his head lightly and said: "It shows that the housing prices in many cities have exceeded the purchasing power of buyers." ”

Pan Shiyi didn't want to speak, but at this time he couldn't help but interject and said:

"Housing is a rigid demand, in 2008 there was the world-renowned Olympic Games, in 2010 is the global attention of the National Expo, followed by the future of the country's Congress, China's economy will only be better, people's income will only rise, I think purchasing power is not a problem. ”

Wang Shi shook his head and did not speak.

But it can be seen from his expression that he does not agree with the reasons given by Pan Shiyi.

Guan Huanting turned the conversation back to Pan Shiyi and asked:

"Mr. Pan, do you think that for the current housing prices, the purchasing power of the Chinese people is enough?"

Pan Shiyi shrunk his neck and said, "Enough, there is no problem with domestic purchasing power." ”

Pan Shiyi danced and explained: "If the purchasing power is insufficient, then why is there a transaction volume? If the purchasing power is insufficient, there will be no transaction." As a developer, I want to sell a square meter house for 108,000 yuan, no one wants it, it is not a market price, the reason why the market price can rise is that we have reached a deal, there is this purchasing power. ”

Guan Huanting asked again: "But what Mr. Wang said is that in fact, the middle class can't afford to buy a house?"

Pan Shiyi's eyes widened, and he asked rhetorically, "Who did you sell the house to?"

Guan Huanting patiently explained: "He thinks that 20% of the people now, the wealth is in the hands of these people, so they can invest in buying a house, buy a second house, a third house, but the income between 60,000 and 300,000 yuan annual salary of these people can't afford to buy a house?"

Pan Shiyi replied: "So this is a social problem, that is, in the process of China's rapid economic development, the polarization between the rich and the poor may be more serious. ”

Guan Huanting seized a loophole in his words and asked, "Then do you also admit the reality that he said that the middle class can't afford to buy a house?"

Pan Shiyi was caught off guard, and was forced to answer by Guan Huanting's question, he squeaked and whined: "You keep asking me about this idea, I don't know where to go, drink some water, take a break, take a break." You're sharper on this, okay, I'll take a look. ”

Seeing Pan Shiyi hurriedly holding mineral water to drink, everyone on and off the stage laughed, and the tense atmosphere on the field eased a lot.

Guan Huanting also smiled, and she turned her gaze back to Wang Shi.

Wang Shi straightened up and concluded: "The main force of the future real estate market purchase must be the middle class, if the middle class cannot afford to buy a house, the house price will definitely fall." ”

Guan Huanting nodded, seemingly agreeing with Wang Shi's statement.

But she didn't forget Pan Shiyi, who was still drinking water, faced him, smiled and asked: "Mr. Pan, the market that Mr. Wang said that the middle class can't afford to buy a house must be an abnormal market, do you agree with this sentence?"

Pan Shiyi stopped drinking water at this time, he straightened his neck, nodded and said, "Agree." ”

There was warm applause again, and the dialogue between the real estate tycoons came to an end.

。 Sogou